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| China's show of strength |
| Monday October 5, 2009 |
| Beijing, Oct 5: Finally the 60th birthday party in China is winding down. Although government offices will not open till the 8th, the heightened tension in Beijing and excessive security measures are gradually giving way to a more normal routine. The military parade, as much a show of strength for the benefit of the rest of the world as a message to the domestic audience, was no doubt grand and executed perfectly. It also provided the rare glimpse into China's top leadership. In a country where power struggle and factional feuds are mostly conducted behind an impenetrable 'bamboo curtain,' it was instructive to look at the coverage of the parade by China Central Television and draw some obvious conclusions. President Hu Jintao, due to retire in 2012, is in absolute command at the moment but there is no clarity yet as to who will succeed him. Vice President Xi, widely tipped to be Hu successor is far from a sure shot successor. The wild card could still be former supremo Jiang Zemin who made way for Hu in 2002. Jiang Jemin was the surprise on the high rostrum on October 1. And the amount of time devoted by the CCTV multi-camera set up to Jiang Zemin points to something deeper. Jiang, the former strongman from Shanghai had reluctantly given up his three posts one by one between 2002 and 2004. So Hu actually became the supreme leader only from 2004 onwards. Till six months ago, Vice President Xi Jingping was supposed to be a sure shot successor to Hu in 2012 but his path to the top spot has got tougher after he failed to gain the post of vice chairman of the all-powerful Central Military Commission, the body that controls the military. Now Jiang's prolonged appearance under the spotlight on October 1, and less focus on Xi during the parade, points to a new power struggle in China's highest echelons of power. Xi, well-placed sources in China say, has launched a new anti-corruption drive in order to impress the hardliners within the party, many of them still aligned to Jiang. The power struggle is likely to intensify in coming months and years until it reaches its zenith around 2011-2012. In the interim, the challenge for the leadership will be to continue with China's remarkable economic progress and reasonably controlled social order. So far it has successfully managed to combine an open and liberal economic policy with a closed, ruthless and repressive political system for over three decades now. But the question that troubles all China observers is: will this system be able to sustain itself? Because if the system crumbles, the already paranoid Chinese leadership will come down harder on any hint of dissent, social unrest or separatism displayed in Tibet and Xinjiang. If that happens, the world will have to evolve a different strategy to deal with a more belligerent China. |
A student of conflicts, insurgencies and wars, Nitin Gokhale has spent 26 years reporting on military and militants from various hostile fields like India's north-east, Kashmir valley, the Kargil war, China and Sri Lanka, among others. He's currently NDTV's Defence and Strategic Affairs Editor.
