Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin traded near $63,620 on Wednesday, gaining about 0.8% over 24 hours, as investors maintained cautious positions before the Federal Reserve's policy decision. The recovery remains modest after Bitcoin retreated from last week's local high near $66,700. Immediate support lies at $62,700-$63,000, followed by $62,000. Resistance is visible near $64,100, with the stronger $65,100-$66,700 zone likely to restrict further gains.

On-chain data show why Bitcoin continues to hold around $63,000 despite weaker institutional demand.The $63,000 area represents the market's strongest nearby demand zone, with the cost basis of roughly one-tenth of the circulating Bitcoin supply concentrated there. Meanwhile, the short-term holder cost basis near $69,000 remains the key breakeven level for recent buyers. If Bitcoin approaches this level from below, it could trigger additional selling pressure as investors look to exit at breakeven.

The broader market remains in cautious consolidation. Exchange liquidity has contracted and aggressive selling has eased, but derivatives traders are also showing less conviction. Perpetual futures buying has weakened, and funding costs for long positions have fallen sharply. Meanwhile, options markets are pricing in higher future volatility, even though the underlying asset has shown little price movement.

US spot Bitcoin ETF flows have reversed materially. Funds lost $225.1 million on July 23, $240.1 million on July 24 and $11.6 million on July 27, producing combined withdrawals of $476.8 million. July 28 showed a preliminary $5.1 million inflow. This reversal has substantially weakened the institutional support that drove the earlier recovery.

Large-cap altcoins were modestly higher. Ethereum gained 1.5% to $1,902, BNB rose 0.9% to $570, XRP advanced 1.4% to $1.07, Solana was almost unchanged at $73.23, and TRON added 0.2% to $0.324. The limited gains indicate selective participation rather than a broad altcoin rally.

The Fed decision is the immediate macro catalyst. Markets assign a 33% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, although most analysts expect rates to remain at 3.50%-3.75%. Renewed Middle East tensions, higher oil prices and a dollar index near 101.43 could encourage hawkish guidance even if rates are held.

Our advice: Investors should avoid taking large directional positions around the Fed decision. Staggered purchases, limited leverage and disciplined sizing remain preferable until Bitcoin either loses $62,700 or reclaims $66,700 with renewed ETF and spot demand.

Investors are advised to maintain records of crypto-to-crypto trades, staking rewards, airdrops and crypto used for purchasing goods or services. Read full report here

At the close on Tuesday, the total market cao of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,79,16,996.