Less than a year after Lehman Brothers collapsed, taking the financial crisis to its head, economists believe the global recession is over.
The International Monetary Fund's top economist Olivier Blanchard said: "The global recession is over and recovery has started". But there is a word of caution, "The turnaround won't be simple...the crisis has left deep scars, which will affect both supply and demand for many years to come."
Blanchard's comments came after Japan became the latest major economy to return to growth in the second quarter, following a similar recovery in Germany and France.
According to economists, there are still some worries like rising unemployment in the US, falling household consumption, declining industrial production, and a weak housing market.
As for India's recovery, the major concerns are exports that have declined for the tenth straight month, and the weak monsoon which will hit the growth rate.
The experts, however, say we've turned the corner. "Well, in India, I think the recovery has already started. I think the global rates are accelerating ...and in USA, by the next quarter that is the October-December quarter, will be a positive growth quarter in my opinion," affirms Adi Godrej, Chairman, Godrej Group.
So it may not be an easy recovery, but at least the worst is behind us.
