The picture of Guwahati two days before the second phase of polling was impressive if not fascinating. Hundreds of people were trying to get on to some mode of conveyance to reach their home in nearby towns and villages. To cast the 'vote'.  I stood in a queue half a kilometre from the Saraighat bridge on the Brahmaputra jostled by over enthusiastic Indians. This is an India that seemed so excited about voting. In sharp contrast to a cynical urban India. Voting during Bihu season and a chance to visit home maybe the incentives but people were genuinely interested in the entire exercise of voting. 

Result: 70 per cent votes cast which is higher than usual.

On polling day, however, a light drizzle made it pleasant for people to come out in large numbers. That's not good news for the Congress which has lost seats when the polling percentage has been higher than usual.

Congress has more problems to sort out than just polling percentages. Tarun Gogoi's sound byte saying he can win without Muslim votes may cost him dearly. His personal differences with Badruddin Ajmal founder of AUDF a Muslim minority front hasn't been pleasant for his party.

Badruddin running from two constituencies is ready to lose out in numbers but he is almost close to driving his point home. The Congress will find it difficult to survive without the likes of Ajmal in future. So it's the Muslim Vote that is expected to determine the swing. It's been this vote that has always written the election story in Assam.

The AGP BJP alliance also owes it to AUDF to have furthered their cause at least in this election. Their poll plank as always is about taking measures against illegal migration

(Which they conveniently forget when their turn comes)  as opposed to AUDF guarantying protection to the minorities. The Congress caught in between.

With the Muslim vote split if not gone the Congress appears even more worried when it came to the tea gardens. The gardens have been slowly shifting loyalties to the opposition. 

So anti incumbency and splitting of Muslim and tea vote is something the Congress had no answers to. Its internal assessment was not at all positive. Though its difficult to predict the mind of the Indian voter, Congress doesn't seem to have done very well across the state. However, if it manages to get more than the expected, Gogoi along with his trusted lieutenants may survive this round.

But the future of electoral politics in Assam is surely more than Tarun Gogoi and Badruddin Ajmal. The AGP hasn't been able to reinvent itself so it must operate with the insulation of national denominations like the BJP. BJP unfortunately hasn't e been able to create any state level leaders and must use props like the AGP. What, however , appears imminent is the emergence of a militarised politics in which indigenous groups will back their candidate for their right to self determination. And continue having a slice of the development fund that's generously doled out to autonomous regions.The DHD(J) claiming N C Hills has been carrying out terror strikes almost every day. They spared the polling day after some monetary understanding was arranged. The NDFB and the former BLT supported parties have been engaged in a fratricidal war in Bodoland. The Karbi militants chased the Prime Minister away from a rally he was supposed to address in Diphu. The ULFA has always been part of the electoral process. Ironically both the Congress and the opposition claim the other has some truck with the ULFA during elections. The ULFA presumably has a mind of its own and decides which way to swing.

For thirty years the issue of illegal migration may have dominated the state's politics but the battleground now is about identity politics. That could well mean an even more  violent one.