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| The China challenge |
| Friday September 18, 2009 |
| The government has postponed the crucial China Study Group meeting scheduled for Thursday, September 17, citing too much media attention and hype! A senior government official told me: "There was too much media pressure and hyperbole on this China issue. So it was decided at the highest level to call off the meeting and let temperatures cool down a bit. We will meet but away from the intense media speculation." I have just not been able to understand the government's attitude. China apologists in the MEA and the PMO want to desperately play down the increasing instances of Chinese border incursions all along the Line of actual control. It is also turning a blind eye to the assertiveness displayed by China in relation to India in international fora. Many in the government have privately blamed the media of indulging in hype in reporting Chinese incursions and have in fact informally told editors to tone down the rhetoric. But this attitude is just brushing the problem under the carpet instead of confronting it head on. If media is guilty of over-hype, the government is equally culpable of underplaying the Chinese challenge. The government is ignoring the fact that the aggressive patrolling, assertive transgressions and vituperative articles in state media aimed against India, is all part of the larger design to keep India off balance. Here's another way China is doing that currently. Stride 2009, a massive military exercise involving 50,000 troops, tanks, aircraft moving over long distances is designed to improve long-range projection against India. Indian policy makers have forgotten that in the last coupe of decades, the character of the Chinese leadership has changed. After it's emergence as an economic superpower, it's aiming to be a military superpower. So gone is the maxim - "Hide your capability, bide your time." An openly aggressive stand is the new mantra. It is important to remember that in 2006, a Chinese military white paper laid down its 50-year goals and made them public. According to that plan, by 2010, China intends to target and coerce regional powers like Taiwan, Vietnam and India. By 2020, it wants to be ready to take on Russia, Japan and Europe and by 2050, it wants to match US capabilities. And it seems to be working diligently working towards its target. Taiwan with its Beijing-friendly government is no longer a threat. Vietnam is focusing on its economic development and wants to avoid a confrontation. But India is still seen as competition because of its rising economic clout and soft power. And this brings us back to the border transgressions. New Delhi believes China isn't really that bothered about its simmering border dispute. It's important to remember that China has settled its boundary problems with nine of its neighbours except India. The current round of tension began in June with some caustic comments in a semi-official English Daily in Beijing, The Global Times. In an openly belligerent comment it said: "India's current course can only lead to a rivalry between the two countries. India needs to consider whether or not it can afford the consequences of a potential confrontation with China. It should also be asking itself why it hasn't forged the stable and friendly relationship with China that China enjoys with many of India's neighbours, like Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Any aggressive moves will certainly not aid the development of good relations with China. India should examine its attitude and preconceptions; it will need to adjust if it hopes to cooperate with China and achieve a mutually beneficial outcome." As I said in an earlier post, nothing in China is written or broadcast without official approval if not sanction, it is clear that Beijing for some reason wanted to up the ante on its long-standing border dispute with India. India's rulers must not make the mistake of underestimating China at any point. The Chinese play for the long term gain, not for short-term achievements. They will keep India guessing and off balance. I wonder how a government that succumbs to media pressure and calls off a crucial meeting, deal with an assertive China. |
A student of conflicts, insurgencies and wars, Nitin Gokhale has spent 26 years reporting on military and militants from various hostile fields like India's north-east, Kashmir valley, the Kargil war, China and Sri Lanka, among others. He's currently NDTV's Defence and Strategic Affairs Editor.
