Governor Asks Vijay To Prove Majority For Oath, TVK May Move Court: Sources

Drama continues to roil Tamil Nadu's political landscape over 72 hours after the counting of votes from last month's election delivered an inconclusive verdict - an anomaly for the southern state.

Superstar actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam thumped all comers on its poll debut, in a state that has voted in a binary for six decades. The party swept 108 of the state's 234 seats. Dravidian giants Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam - the binary - managed less than 100 between them. But in a twist of fate, the TVK finished just short of the 118-seat majority mark, the magic number for a hassle-free government formation process.

Vijay needs 10 more seats to hit that mark.

And therein lies the challenge.

'TVK + Congress not enough'

It initially seemed the TVK - with conditional support from the Congress for its five seats - would stake claim to form the government, and shore up numbers with backing from smaller parties ahead of a floor test.

But the Wednesday meeting with Governor RV Arlekar put paid to that idea.

Arlekar, sources told NDTV, was unconvinced by the proposal Vijay tabled.

The two met again this morning and Vijay was asked a series of questions, including how he might run a government with only 113 MLAs. Sources said the meet finished with Arlekar insisting Vijay provide letters of support from 118 legislators.

The communique from the governor's office to Vijay.

The governor reportedly said Vijay could not take his oath without those letters.

'May move court': TVK

The TVK, meanwhile, has expressed concern over this stand-off, and indicated it retains the right to legal challenges to compel the governor to accept its (at present) minority claim.

The party has received support on this point from a Left bloc - Communist Party of India and CPI (Marxist), and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi. All three are part of the DMK-led alliance, but have been approached by the TVK over a transfer of seats.

Leaders of the three parties met DMK boss MK Stalin this morning to discuss this transfer and were reportedly given the freedom to decide based on their specific political interests.

VCK chief Thirumavalavan told NDTV: "We are with Secular Progressive Alliance… but we will discuss in a day or two (on the question of supporting the TVK)." He also urged the governor to accept Vijay's claim as it stands now, pointing out that an incoming government is required to prove its majority in the House - as the TVK has said it will - and not to the governor.

More significantly, the TVK has also been backed by the DMK; the outgoing majority party called the governor's "unacceptable" and "a disrespect" to the mandate. And fellow actor Kamal Haasan has also spoken up for Vijay.

READ | 'Tamil Nadu Insulted': DMK, VCK Support Vijay In Stalemate vs Governor

"The TVK, led by Mr Vijay, has won 108 seats. Not inviting him to form the government would amount to disrespecting the mandate of the people of Tamil Nadu... This is an insult to the state; it is damage to democracy," he said on X.

Kamal Haasan is chief of the Makkal Needhi Naiam, which did not contest this election.

TVK building its alliance

The Congress' five are in Vijay's pocket, for now, and the Left and smaller Tamil parties could provide the rest, allowing him to complete the cinema-to-politics arc CN Annadurai, MGR, J Jayalalithaa, and M Karunanidhi, completed before him.

RECAP | Congress To Support Vijay, "No Communal Forces In Alliance" Condition

'Thalapathy' or 'commander', as Vijay is called by his fans, has time; the term of the current Assembly ends May 10, which gives another 72 hours, give or take, till he can convince Arlekar that his TVK has the numbers.

TVK boss Vijay is battling to show he has the numbers to form a stable government (File)

This combination - TVK + Congress + Left + VCK - gives Vijay 119 seats, which will drop to 118 once the actor resigns his Trichy (East) seat. Vijay contested and won from two seats, the other being Perambur in northern Chennai.

On paper that is sufficient but Vijay will want a buffer, and that could come from the Pattali Makkal Katchi, which has four seats and is an ally of the Bharatiya Janata Party. PMK chief Ramadoss hasn't spoken on this numbers game so far.

The AIADMK angle

The other option is widely regarded as less likely - an alliance between the TVK and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the other half of the Dravidian dup that has dominated Tamil Nadu politics for 62 years.

RECAP | After Election Win, TVK At Centre Of Numbers Game. One Option Is AIADMK

There has been talk of rifts in the AIADMK on the Vijay question.

The TVK fired ferocious attacks on the DMK and BJP in campaigning for this election, setting up a 'good vs evil' narrative with Vijay as the hero. It paid rich dividends. It also dropped the AIADMK into a blind spot, of sorts.

Neither Vijay nor the TVK expressly targeted the larger party.

Perhaps as a result of that soft-peddling factions of the AIADMK were ready to ally.

Reports this morning said over a dozen - more than enough to carry the TVK over the majority mark - AIADMK legislators were ready to link up, and had shifted to a resort in Puducherry to force the issue.

RECAP | AIADMK Claims 'All Is Well' After Resort Buzz Over 'Pro-TVK' MLAs

However, two AIADMK leaders told NDTV there will be no alliance, and that any talk of a deal was false. CV Shanmugam and KP Munusamy said whispers surfaced because the party's messaging had not been clear enough.

Vijay, meanwhile, is understood to be reluctant to ally given the AIADMK's ties with the BJP.

Should EPS have a change of heart, the two parties will have over 150 seats between them.

And what about the BJP?

The BJP has denied any role in the stand-off between the TVK and Arlekar.

"It is a fractured verdict... TVK doesn't have a majority. If he (Vijay) proves a majority, then the governor will constitutionally accept it. There is no confusion..." the BJP's state unit spokesperson, Narayan Thirupathy, told news agency PTI.

Thirupathy rejected claims the BJP had directed the governor to stymie Vijay.

READ | Vijay Pressured Since He Opposed BJP? 'Political Rhetoric' Reply

"This is a democratic country. Elections happen here in a democratic way. Mr Vijay of the TVK has more seats. Everything will happen democratically. How can somebody pressure (someone)? These are all political rehtorics. I don't think that is right."

What if...

Arlekar, experts indicate, has a handful of options but most circle back to Vijay.

One is to invite the largest pre-poll alliance. In this case, that would be the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance with 73 seats. This, however, is seen as a non-starter. The SPA is 45 seats from the majority mark compared to Vijay's 10.

The second option is to invite the leader of the single largest party - which would be Vijay. 

The third is to call on a post-poll coalition supported by 118+ incoming MLAs. This will likely be Vijay, again, since the alternative will need to be an alliance of nearly every other party, including the DMK and AIADMK, and the BJP and Congress.

As all of this plays out, Vijay's 107 new legislators have been sequestered at a resort in the temple town of Mamallapuram, which is around 50km from capital Chennai. The TVK is new to the game but Vijay knows the rules.

In a worst-case scenario, assuming neither the TVK nor any other party cannot put together a strong-enough coalition, the governor could suspend the newly-elected Assembly and recommend the centre impose President's Rule.

And that would then lead to a fresh election.