Opinion | Is INDIA Bloc Set To Split After Tamil Nadu, Bengal Results? A Look At The Mess

The outcome of five state assembly polls has rattled the INDIA alliance, leading to bad blood, disquiet and realignment. There are strong indicators that the Opposition bloc, facing an existential crisis, will break into two or more formations, giving the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) a distinct advantage and scope for manoeuvring for the 2029 Lok Sabha polls.

Paradoxically, the imminent disintegration of the INDIA alliance brings both joy and grief for the Grand Old Party. The Rahul Gandhi-led Congress has reasons to cheer the downfall of a whimsical and temperamental Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and the defeat of DMK in Tamil Nadu, for two very different reasons. 

A Congress Opening In Bengal?

In Bengal, the Congress has a theoretical chance of revival and is hoping that a section of the Trinamool would come 'home' if the breakaway party breaks down in the state. It is an open secret that within days of defeat, things have gone sour between Mamata and her nephew  Abhishek Banerjee. Given the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) penchant for splitting regional outfits, such as the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Congress managers say it's just a matter of weeks - if not months - before the TMC starts seeing a heavy exodus.

Opportunism In Tamil Nadu

Marxist theorist-philosopher Antonio Gramsci had argued that political loyalty cannot be static: "I hate the indifferent. I believe that living means taking sides. Those who really live cannot help being a citizen and a partisan." When people realise that their interests are not being served, the "hegemony" breaks down, and loyalty shifts toward new, alternative ideologies. In the context of Tamil Nadu, this shift is towards actor Vijay's ideology of social, secular justice.

But in an almost twisted manner, Gramsci's words are what seem to be driving Rahul Gandhi, who has turned every inch opportunistic as he ditches ally DMK without any remorse, as if paying them back for their move to leave the UPA in 2013. The Congress-DMK alliance has a chequered history, with enough instances of the two sides playing monkey tricks. Remember how the Congress dumped the IK Gujral government in 1998 on the pretext of the DMK's alleged role in supporting Rajiv Gandhi's assassins?

The Congress volte face in Tamil Nadu, as it now sides with Vijay, is also a desperate attempt to make up for its pre-poll goof-up of ignoring the TVK. In the run-up to the elections, Rahul had leaned on Mallikarjun Kharge and the old guard's advice to stay on with DMK, even though a section of the Tamil Nadu Congress thought otherwise. Initially diffident and unsure, Rahul was quick to realise his folly the day votes were cast across Tamil Nadu. By April 24-25, he reportedly told a close aide, "We made a blunder in Tamil Nadu." Curiously, the Left and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) shared in Rahul's regret and supported his decision to make a quick U-turn. The DMK, meanwhile, has been left fuming, as it had rewarded the Congress with a Rajya Sabha berth just last month.

Will Congress Be Punished?

It remains to be seen whether Mamata, Arvind Kejriwal and Stalin would now close ranks to punish and isolate the Congress. The prospect of an anti-Congress front opening up hinges upon Akhilesh Yadav's wishes. If the Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo decides to side with Mamata and the DMK, the Congress is bound to suffer a big setback. There is every possibility that the new alliance would try to rope in players such as the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), the YSR Congress, the NCP and the People's Democratic Party (PDP) to broaden its base.

The Uttar Pradesh assembly polls are due early next year, which imposes an additional burden on Akhilesh and presents him with a difficult choice: to go with the Congress or not. With no signs of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) joining hands with Akhilesh, the SP stands to gain more by aligning with the Congress rather than siding with Mamata, Kejriwal and Stalin. But then Akhilesh, much like Tejashwi Yadav of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), reportedly has had a complicated experience in doing business with Rahul. Privately, many SP leaders view Rahul as an unsure, tentative, big-brotherly and unconventional politician. Then there are those who think Priyanka Gandhi, much like her mother Sonia, has the aptitude and the inclination to be an alliance-builder and to strike a personal rapport with Akhilesh.

The Enthusiasm Around Indira Bhawan

In any case, amusing as it may sound, post May-4, the air inside Indira Gandhi Bhawan and 24, Akbar Road is dripping with a lot of enthusiasm and bravado. A section of the Congress, particularly those enjoying proximity to Rahul, thinks the party has an opportunity to revive its "good old days" in West Bengal, Maharashtra, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Punjab and several other states. So, 'ekla chalo re' ('walk alone') is the buzzword, and '200 paar' ('past 200 seats') in 2029 is a dream worth dreaming. However, a closer scrutiny reveals that, except in Kerala, the prospects of the Congress getting double-digit Lok Sabha seats in any other state are bleak. In West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, which together account for 254 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress vote shares are in single digits currently.

In this context, the disquiet and churn within the INDIA alliance require a reality check. A section of Congress leaders wants Rahul to act like a statesman and give a clarion call to Mamata, Sharad Pawar and Jagan Mohan Reddy to return to the party fold to project a 'Naya Congress' that would take on the NDA in 2029. But given the power dynamics and hubris that surround Rahul Gandhi, this idea is unlikely to fly. 

(Rasheed Kidwai is an author, columnist and conversation curator)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author