The White House says there is no conflict. The Trump Organization says the trades are executed by third-party institutions using automated systems. Read full report here

PM Modi underlined that Swedish firms setting up production in India shows ties are moving beyond buyer-seller to industrial partnership. Read full report here

NSE Nifty50 closed at 23,649.95, up 6.45 points or 0.03 per cent. BSE Sensex closed at 75,315.04, up 77.05 points or 0.10 per cent. 

VDart Digital, a global digital transformation and technology services company, today announced the appointment of Rajesh Dubey as Vice President and Practice Leader - Enterprise Application Services.

Rajesh joins VDart Digital with more than 25 years of experience leading enterprise-scale digital transformation initiatives, ERP modernization programs, cloud migrations, enterprise platform transformations, and global delivery operations across multiple industries.

In his new role, Rajesh will lead VDart Digital's Enterprise Application Services portfolio, including Oracle, SAP, Salesforce, and other enterprise software platforms. He will be responsible for driving strategy, innovation, delivery excellence, customer growth, AI-led modernization across the portfolio, strategic technology partnerships and expansion of the company's enterprise transformation capabilities globally.

VRL Logistics reported that the fourth-quarter (Q4FY26) net profit was at Rs 72.14 crore compared to Rs 74.27 crore in the same quarter a year ago. 

PM Modi Sweden Visit: As India is positioning itself as a trusted manufacturing, R&D, and digital partner for Europe, Sweden becomes a gateway. Read full report here

Oben Electric, India's fastest-growing R&D-driven electric motorcycle manufacturer, has announced that its newly launched motorcycle, the Oben Rorr Evo, has crossed 25,000 bookings within just 15 days of launch, setting a new benchmark for demand in India's electric motorcycle segment.

The overwhelming response to the Rorr Evo marks a defining moment not just for Oben Electric, but for India's electric motorcycle market at large, a milestone that stands among the fastest demand accumulations ever seen in the category. What makes this milestone particularly significant is Oben Electric's strong delivery readiness with 150+ showrooms and dedicated service centres across 100+ cities in 18+ States, ensuring seamless support throughout the ownership journey. Every outlet is backed by dedicated service centres - Oben Care, which holds an industry-best Customer Satisfaction Score (CSAT) of 91%, reinforcing the brand's strong focus on reliability, customer experience and long-term ownership confidence. Further strengthening its retail presence, the company plans to launch 200 additional exclusive showrooms by end of FY27.

Offered at an introductory price of Rs 99,999 (ex-showroom) for the first 10,000 customers and Rs 1,24,999 (ex-showroom) thereafter. Oben Electric has now opened the payment portal on its website for Rorr Evo customers to avail introductory price of Rs 99,999 (ex-showroom), with deliveries scheduled to commence from June 2026.

Commenting on the milestone, Madhumita Agrawal, Founder & CEO, Oben Electric, said: "With India actively accelerating its transition towards electric mobility, the response to the Rorr Evo shows that the shift is now extending meaningfully into the electric motorcycle category as well. Crossing 25,000 bookings in just 15 days is not merely a strong product milestone for us, but a larger consumer signal that Indian riders are now ready to adopt electric motorcycles that deliver uncompromised performance, everyday practicality and ownership confidence. We believe the electric motorcycle segment is at the forefront of India's next EV growth wave, and with our vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities and 150+ showrooms across 18+ States, we are fully geared to deliver this demand at scale."

Akshay Chinchalkar, Managing Partner and Head of Strategy, The Wealth Company

Talking domestic stocks, and the nifty ended 0.2% down at 23643, but that does not tell the full story, which was about the early session rebound failing to stick. Both the front-month nifty and bank nifty futures slipped and open interest fell, pointing to long liquidation. The India VIX rose about a percent. Mid- and small-caps also finished lower. Nearly two stocks fell for every stock that gained on the NSE500. Seven of the main NSE sectors dropped, with metal stocks becoming the worst performers as they dropped 1.9%. Media stocks were the top performers, rising 2%. Technically speaking, Friday's price action was about "upside rejection" around the 23800 resistance area, as the candle had a long upper shadow. For the day, Friday's low is now critical. If we fail to take out the previous session's high of 23840 and instead close below the session low of 23610, bears will gain the upper hand, yet again. The shelf of support sits between 23422 and 23585, under which the next critical buffer lies between 23100 and 23200. Resistance sits inside the 23840 and 24000 area. 

Now, coming to flows, based on provisional data, foreigners invested 1329 cr while domestic players invested 1959 cr. Speaking index options positioning, foreigners went bearish, prop traders were mostly flat and retail investors turned confident.

As of 12 PM, the Nifty50 was down 154.85 points or 0.65 per cent down at 23,476.95, and the Sensex fell 496.96 points or 0.66 per cent to ​74,722.81.

AITMC Ventures Limited (AVPL International) has officially inaugurated Phase-1 of its proposed Rs 80 crore "Drone City Haryana" project at Village Sisai, Hansi, marking a major milestone in India's rapidly expanding drone and advanced technology ecosystem. Developed under the integrated "Future Tech Park Haryana" initiative, the project has received Rs 58.51 crore support from the Haryana Government under the Haryana Enterprise and Employment Policy-2020.

The inauguration ceremony was led by Haryana Cabinet Minister Shri Krishan Kumar Bedi in the presence of former Finance Minister Captain Abhimanyu, senior government officials, industry leaders, defence sector stakeholders, entrepreneurs, training institutions, and youth representatives from across Haryana.

Spread across nearly 11.5 acres, the Drone City Haryana will act as an integrated future-tech ecosystem focused on drone manufacturing, component production, testing infrastructure, R&D, skilling, deployment, and entrepreneurship development. The project aims to position Haryana as an emerging hub for indigenous drone manufacturing, aerospace innovation, defence technologies, AI-driven applications, and future-ready skill development.

The initiative aligns with India's growing focus on indigenous drone technologies, precision agriculture, advanced manufacturing, defence innovation, and technology-led employment generation under the Make in India and Aatmanirbhar Bharat vision.

Shri Krishan Kumar Bedi, Hon'ble Cabinet Minister, Haryana, said, "The launch of Drone City Haryana marks a proud milestone for the state and reflects India's rapid progress in science and technology-led innovation. Initiatives like this will create new opportunities for youth, strengthen entrepreneurship, and help position Haryana as an emerging hub for advanced technologies and drone manufacturing."

Alok Saxena, Executive Director, SPE Division, Zuari Industries Limited 

India's decision to suspend sugar exports till September 2026 reflects the need to prioritise domestic availability, particularly in a season shaped by weather variability, moderation in cane yields in some regions, and increased diversion towards ethanol.

The move also aligns with the broader objective of strengthening domestic energy security by channelling sugarcane towards ethanol production and reducing dependence on fossil fuels. While it may temporarily limit export opportunities for mills and influence domestic price trends, it is broadly in line with the country's long-term strategic priorities.

At the same time, this underscores the importance of a more balanced and forward-looking approach to the sugar-ethanol ecosystem. Improving cane productivity, accelerating the adoption of better seed varieties, strengthening irrigation infrastructure, and supporting farmers with improved agronomic practices will be critical for sustainable growth.

A stable and data-driven policy framework, particularly around exports, would further enable the industry to plan investments and operations with greater confidence across the value chain.

HDFC Asset Management Company received a communication from an anonymous source that they have access to a certain portion of their IT infrastructure. HDFC Asset Management Company share price tumbled 3.8 per cent to Rs 2,602 per share on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) after reporting a cybersecurity incident. 

Sanjay Kedia, CEO, Marsh India

The launch of the Bharat Maritime Insurance Pool marks an important milestone in India's journey towards building a stronger and more resilient risk ecosystem for the maritime sector. As India's trade footprint expands globally, the need for scalable domestic insurance and reinsurance capacity becomes increasingly critical. A sovereign-supported pool of this nature can play a pivotal role in enhancing market confidence and improving access to coverage for strategic sectors. It also reflects the growing recognition of maritime risk as a key pillar of India's economic and infrastructure ambitions. Over time, this initiative can help catalyse deeper underwriting expertise, investment in risk analytics, and long-term resilience across the country's marine insurance landscape.

As of 10 AM, the Nifty50 was down 313.70 points or 1.33 per cent at 23,332.70, and the Sensex fell 1,023.76 points or 1.36 per cent to 74,214.23. 

The Thesis

With Brent at $109 on a closed Strait of Hormuz and FIIs already ₹26,000 cr lighter this month, the book leans hard into crude-immune, rupee-defensive cash flows. Telecom and pharma carry the weight - domestic recurring revenue and USD earners that don't bleed when imported energy reprices. GIFT Nifty's gap-down open into a VIX-18 tape only sharpens the case for quality over beta.

Where We're Concentrated

A telecom trio anchors the book - the strongest single-sector cluster in today's signal. A pharma quartet adds defensive USD optionality, and TCS reinforces the export-earnings hedge. The thesis breaks if Hormuz reopens fast and crude collapses - that would unwind the defensive bid and rotate flows back into the rate-sensitive financials and discretionary names this book is deliberately underweight.

Conviction Picks

Vodafone Idea (IDEA) HIGHEST CONVICTION

Broadest model agreement in the book - telecom tariff cycle and AGR resolution path keep this domestic-cash-flow story insulated from the crude shock dragging the rest of the tape.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) USD HEDGE

With INR under pressure from a $109 Brent print and FII outflows, large-cap IT's dollar revenue book becomes the cleanest currency hedge available.

Indus Towers (INDUSTOWER)

Tower-rental cash flows are inflation-linked and contract-locked - a textbook defensive when VIX is bid and FIIs are net sellers.

Vedanta (VEDL)

The one cyclical with conviction - commodities benefit directly from the same Hormuz-driven supply tightness that's hurting the broader tape, making it a natural hedge inside a defensive book.

MCX

Volatility is the product - a VIX-18 tape with crude swinging 8% in a week drives commodity volumes directly into the exchange's revenue line.

One Thing to Watch

The Strait of Hormuz. Any credible de-escalation headline that pulls Brent back below $100 unwinds the defensive bid, rotates flows back into financials and discretionary, and forces a complete re-read of this book. Until then, conviction stays with cash-flow defensives and the USD earners.

BTC is trading steadily near the $78K-$79K range as investors tracked rising bond yields and inflation expectations in the US. Exchange inflows increased around recent highs, showing many traders were locking in profits while still remaining active in the market. At the same time, funding rates stayed positive, suggesting traders continue to favor long positions and expect the broader trend to remain positive. The US-China meeting also remained in f nuocus. Since no official confirmation came around agricultural and oil trade commitments, some believe markets may not react immediately. Others feel Trump's visit might improve relations and could help strengthen market sentiment over time.

One97 Communication's digital payment service, Paytm, launched Pocket Money to bring the UPI to teenagers without a bank account.

India VIX surged more than 5 per cent on Monday as escalating geopolitical tensions, soaring global bond yields and weakness in the rupee triggered sharp risk aversion across Dalal Street.

Sumit Gupta, Co Founder at CoinDCX  

The Senate Banking Committee's CLARITY Act is a pivotal and much-awaited moment for global crypto regulation. A comprehensive US market structure law can accelerate regulatory convergence globally, including in India, whose own regulatory journey has been shaped in part by the absence of clear international precedent. The bipartisan compromise on stablecoin yield has been arrived at after intensive stakeholder engagement between regulators and industry, one that India should consider for its approach to regulation. The discussion on conflict-of-interest provisions is a healthy signal that US hopes to build its crypto regulation on institutional integrity. Markets ultimately run on trust. Any legislation that advances both regulatory clarity and ethical guardrails strengthens the long-term credibility of the entire asset class.

Surging crude oil prices and rising US Treasury yields weighed on investor sentiment and triggered selling across emerging-market assets. The rupee decline comes amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed Brent crude above $111 per barrel and heightened concerns over inflation and global growth. Higher oil prices are particularly significant for India, which relies on imports for most of its crude requirements.

For months, India managed to survive one of the worst global oil shocks in recent years through a narrow opening created by Washington. That window has now shut. Read the full report here

The NSE Nifty50 slipped to 23,392 levels, down by 245.40 points or 1.04 per cent. The BSE Sensex opened around 74,430.83 levels, down by 807.16 points, or 1.07 per cent.

N ArunaGiri, CEO, TrustLine Holdings 

Rupee breaching one level after another is more a reflection of sentiment-driven weakness than any serious deterioration in macro fundamentals.

But the real risk is that, if left unchecked, this loss of confidence can turn into a self-fulfilling vicious cycle - triggering further pressure on the rupee that is not warranted by underlying fundamentals.

If one looks at India's macro position today, the situation is far from alarming. The current account deficit remains manageable, forex reserves are reasonably comfortable with import cover of nearly eight to nine months, and the fiscal deficit trajectory continues to remain relatively stable. Given these macro metrics, there is little justification for such a sharp depreciation in the rupee.

However, currency markets are often driven as much by perception as by fundamentals. When investment flows weaken and markets begin anticipating further outflows amid an uncertain geopolitical backdrop, that expectation itself starts exerting pressure on the currency. If such sentiment is allowed to build unchecked, it can create its own cycle of panic and accelerated depreciation.

This is precisely why it is extremely critical for the RBI to step in proactively and announce confidence-building measures, similar to the steps initiated by former RBI Governor  Raghuram Rajan during the 2013 currency crisis. Any delay in action risks aggravating market nervousness and intensifying pressure on the rupee further.

The RBI cannot afford to remain a passive spectator at this stage. What the market needs immediately is a strong policy signal that restores confidence and breaks the negative sentiment cycle.

One possible measure could be launching FCNR dollar deposits, which can help attract foreign currency inflows and provide immediate relief to near-term pressure on the rupee. Government from its side, could look at tax concessions for FII investments like cutting TDS on bond sales, reductions in capital gains taxations etc. It is time for action now.

Nifty: Below 23700, weakness may continue towards 23500-23400. Resistance at 23850 & 24000.

Bank Nifty: Below 54000, downside towards 53500-53000. Resistance at 54250.

Sensex: Below 75500, weakness towards 74800-74600. Resistance at 75800-76000.

Stocks with Positive Setup: Crompton, Solar Industries, Motherson, MCX, Biocon, Dr Reddy, Mankind.

Weak Stocks: HAL, IOC, BPCL, Voltas, PNB, Cochin Shipyard, Kalyan Jewellers.

India Steel Production: India remains one of the quickest expanding steel markets in the world. Read full report here

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty slipped 46 points on Friday to 23,643.5, ending a two-day winning streak as Brent surged past $109 and the Rupee hit a record low of 96 against the dollar. Wall Street sold off sharply, with the S&P 500 down 1.24%, the Dow losing 537 points, and the Nasdaq retreating 1.54% as tech companies took profits and oil-driven inflation fears reemerged. Asian markets are negative this morning, gold sits near $1,450, silver below $17.70, and copper at $6. Crude oil has risen to $110.7 amid fresh warnings from Trump to Iran. GIFT Nifty is at 23,555.5, implying a gap-down of about 100 points. Technically, bulls need a daily close above 23,700 to continue the recovery toward 24,000, while 23,500 remains a crucial support level. With oil prices high, failure to hold the opening zone could quickly bring 23,400-23350 into play.

Kamaljit Anand, former external statistical analyst for Central Board of Indirect Taxes & Customs

Whether these are the right duty rates or not, these rates are not permanent rates and are a temporary import deterrent rate. So, one can expect it to go up further in the interim up to 25% and then recede back sequentially to about 10% in the mid term. In 2014, while working on the recommendation report, we had proposed a duty rate of 10% when the prevailing rate was about 1.5%, which was not accepted initially and the first increase was only to 3%. Slowly, when it was not effective, the rate was revised two-three times more to finally settle at 8.5%. That helped arrest the gold rush, but had some other implications.

The current duty rate increase is likely to act as a moderate deterrent, but would not be able to have a far-reaching impact on imports as institutional importers follow their own market analysis and forecasts. As per our analysis, the swing point would be at about 24% duty rate, where the majority of importers would stall gold imports. At that rate, however, the parallel channels become hyperactive and stocking patterns become different. It hits government collections doubly - on customs duty as well as GST collection.

It absolutely would trigger parallel channels to become hyperactive on the border as well as via international air traffic. The country's intelligence and enforcement departments today have strong data analytics and AI systems to read errant traffic via APIS and allied airline data for specific countries of origin, travel patterns, cartels and errant travel conduits. The risks are studied and rules are refreshed at a very good frequency. International borders are a bit difficult, and the intelligence systems there follow different protocols and have improved considerably. Please expect a lot of interdictions in air traffic as well as land borders. There are other places also, but cannot mention here.

Fuel Price Hike: India imports more than 85 per cent of its crude oil needs. Any sustained increase in oil prices directly hits inflation. Read full report here

Strait of Hormuz-driven Elevated Oil Prices, G7 Meeting

Flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained heavily restricted, keeping the oil prices well-above $100 a barrel throughout the week before the Brent crude futures, the international oil benchmark, ended the week with an 8.7 percent rally at $109.14 a barrel. This ultimately is expected to impact import cost and increase the current account deficit, along with inflation concerns for the oil-importing nations, including India. 

FOMC Minutes

Barring a ceasefire breakthrough that meaningfully restores Hormuz flows, elevated inflation pressures and the sharp repricing of Fed expectations are likely to remain the dominant drivers for both energy and metals markets in the near term. In the coming week, on the United States front, the market participants will closely watch FOMC minutes, May PMI readings, and University of Michigan inflation expectations data for further clarity on the policy outlook, particularly as Kevin Warsh begins his tenure as the new Fed Chair.

Global Economic Data

Apart from US economic releases, focus will also be on flash PMI readings of other nations, including Japan, the UK, and even Europe. China's retail sales, industrial production, and unemployment rate data for the month of April will also be watched next week, while Japan will release its preliminary estimates for GDP growth of Q1-2026 and industrial production for March. The Eurozone's inflation for April will also be watched.

Indian Rupee

On the home front, the market participants will keep an eye on the Indian rupee, which fell to a fresh all-time intraday low of 96.14 against the US dollar before ending at a new closing low of 95.96 with 1.57 percent depreciation, pressured by rising crude oil prices, which continue to weigh on import costs and inflation concerns. This was after the 0.43 percent gains in the previous week. The currency has weakened by 5.4 percent since the start of the US, Israel, and Iran war.

FII Flow

The focus will also be on the mood at Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), which caused pressure not only in the currency pair but also in equities. FIIs have net bought around Rs 1,500 crore in the last two days, but overall, net sold around Rs 13,600 crore worth shares in the week ended May 15, taking the net outflow in the current month to Rs 24,600 crore and in the year to Rs 2.65 lakh crore of selling.

Corporate Earnings

The March quarter earnings season will be in full swing as it approaches the end. Nearly 700 companies are set to release their quarterly earnings scorecard in the coming week, including prominent names from the Nifty 50 like Bharat Electronics, ITC, and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries. Grasim Industries, NTPC, Eicher Motors, Hindalco Industries, and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise.

Domestic Economic Data

Economic releases like infrastructure output for April and HSBC Manufacturing & Services PMI flash for May will also be watched next week. Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.7 percent in April from 53.9 percent in the same period, while Services PMI jumped to 58.8 percent from 57.5 percent in the same period.

At the close on Friday (May 15), the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,60,59,270.