As the dust refuses to settle in Tamil Nadu and Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) chief C Joseph Vijay stakes a claim to form the government, there is high drama. His swearing-in has been delayed by the governor, which is perceived as the BJP sending a message of "non-cooperation" to Vijay, who has received and accepted the support of the Congress's five MLAs in the state.
TVK sources indicated this is the BJP telling them that if they ally with the Congress, the BJP won't make the road ahead easy. Vijay does not have a simple majority yet. However, there have been ample precedents, and it is incumbent upon governors to call on the single-largest party to stake a claim if no other coalition or party has done so.
This is a clear case - Vijay's TVK is the number one party by a mile in a hung verdict and needs to have the chance to prove its numbers on the floor of the house. He ought to have been sworn in as planned tomorrow (May 7); a delay is both unfair and needs to be questioned sharply. The optics of delaying Vijay's swearing-in will not go down well in Tamil Nadu.
The TVK has 108 MLAs. Reduce one because Vijay has won two seats and that makes 107 its effective strength. The Congress has offered in writing the support of five MLAs. This leaves the TVK short by 6 to hit the 118 simple majority mark.
Where these six come from is what the TVK needs to work on, but it should be given the time to do so. The Left and VCK are likely to give it four more and the IUML and PMK are other possibilities.
The DMK is apparently pushing its allies to stick with it. This is a passive aggressive way of making things tough for Vijay as everyone drives a hard bargain.
Against this backdrop, there is a section of the AIADMK pushing for a TVK alliance. However, former chief minister and AIADMK chief Edappadi Palaniswamy (EPS) is refusing, according to sources.
In fact, they say a sizable number of MLAs - up to 30 of the 47 - are in favour of an alliance and are aggressively pushing for the "two leaves" to form a partnership with the "whistle." They also add that there is no formal letter, like the one sent to the VCK, by the TVK chief seeking support; however, that will happen only when backchannel talks show that EPS is ready to come on board.
It is time for EPS and the two leaves to relent and play second fiddle to the whistle. Vijay's numbers have settled the issue. EPS and Vijay did not tie up before the polls only because neither would relent on giving up, being the chief ministerial face of their parties. EPS has been convincingly defeated in these polls, and it is time to think long-term. The two parties are natural allies. One of Vijay's icons is MGR - the legendary founder of the AIADMK. His opposition is to the DMK's corruption and family rule, not Dravidian ideology. The AIADMK needs to concede that it has lost the ability to effectively challenge the DMK in the state and needs the energy of the whistle to remain relevant. Vijay also must concede that he doesn't have the numbers and that it is important to have a strong ally to build a coalition for the future.
Tamil Nadu will not forgive any dangerous experiment to prevent Vijay from taking charge. In fact, rumours of AIADMK-DMK talks have been peddled furiously in sections of the media. Any such experiment is both absurd and dangerous for democracy in a state that respects it. It also seems to fit into talks of hard bargaining as Vijay cobbles together the numbers.
The next two days in Chennai will see unprecedented exchanges. The state has never seen such a fight for numbers. The only other hung verdict, in letter, was in 2006, but that was not a hung verdict in spirit as the DMK alliance had a clear majority then, even when the DMK itself was well short of the mark.
In every way, this is an interesting phase in the state's politics. Vijay's movie 'Jana Nayagan' was not allowed to be released, but any experiment to thwart the release of 'Vijay Sarkar' will have dangerous consequences and will set an ugly precedent for a state that has cherished its democratic and rebellious traditions.
Ultimately, Vijay and his TVK still seem caught between the BJP and the DMK. How he navigates this will be his first big test.
(The author is Executive Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
