New Delhi: The women's reservation bill sailed through the Lok Sabha on Wednesday - 454 MPs voted in favour and two against - after hours of ferocious attack-counterattack between the government and the Opposition.
The bill will now be presented in the Rajya Sabha, 13 years after the Congress-led UPA government tabled its version of the proposed legislation, and it is widely expected to clear this second and hurdle too, with the BJP confident of support from select opposition parties.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah told the Lok Sabha, "After elections (next year), soon census and delimitation exercise will take place. After this, there will be 1/3 women in this house."
However, as opposition MPs pointed out, the 33 per cent reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state legislatures will not actually become a reality after the bill becomes law because of provisions that require a census and a delimitation exercise, the first of which cannot take place before 2027.
So, When Can Women's Quota Bill Become Law?
The answer - almost certainly not before the 2029 election - unless there is a seismic shift in the government's stance coupled with amendments to the Constitution. And, if political commentators like Swaraj India chief Yogendra Yadav are to be believed, it may not happen till 2039, over 15 years later.
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NDTV will attempt to work out a tentative timeline, and we begin with the Home Minister's rebuttal to opposition MPs' questions on the provisions about a census and delimitation (in that order).
What Amit Shah Said On Census, Delimitation
Mr Shah shouted down the Opposition in his speech, declaring that a delimitation exercise was the only "transparent" way to decide which of the Lok Sabha's 543 seat were to be reserved for women.
Census data, he added, is the "bedrock" on which such decisions should be made.
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The next delimitation, per Article 82 of the Constitution, is after the first census post-2026.
The next census is scheduled for 2031; one was to take place in 2021 but the Covid pandemic prevented those plans, and that exercise, Mr Shah seemed to indicate, may now be held after the 2024 election.
Reports suggest this will not take place till 2025, meaning data collection and tabulation followed by release is not likely before 2027. Delimitation must then take place before the bill is implemented.
The redrawing of constituency boundaries is an exhaustive process and this could take two-three years, meaning it may not be completed before the 2029 election.
Delimitation Ahead Of Schedule?
The delimitation exercise can take place sooner, but that requires Article 82 to be amended.
However, southern states - more successful in controlling their population - have voiced concerns over reduced representation following redrawing of constituencies based on population figures.
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Essentially, they fear states that failed to control population will have more control over the government and greater influence in deciding policies, as well as get more funds from the centre.
Women's Reservation In 2039?
This morning, Mr Yadav posted on X (formerly Twitter) to caution against "misleading" media reports, highlighting "the real significance of the delimitation clause" and stating "actually, it (implementation of the women's bill) may not happen till 2039". This assumes no census activity till the next scheduled count.
"Article 82 (amended in 2001) virtually bars delimitation prior to the first census figures post 2026. That can only be 2031. Most observers don't remember delimitation takes three to four years (last one took five) to give its final report," he began.
"Besides, the coming delimitation can be very contentious given the population ratio changes. So we are looking at a report around 2037 or so... that can only be implemented in 2039."
What Does The Woman's Bill Say?
The six-page bill says a third of seats in Lok Sabha and state Assemblies will be reserved for women and filled by direct election. This quota will not apply to the Rajya Sabha or state legislative councils.
Within the quota, a third of the seats will be for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes.
The bill does not include reservation for OBCs as such a provision does not exist for the legislature. This is the demand over which the Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Janata Dal opposed the bill earlier, and over which the opposition did again today.
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The reservations guaranteed by the bill will be in force for 15 years after it becomes law, but its term can be extended. Importantly, the reserved seats will be rotated after each delimitation exercise.