VD Satheesan, Not KC Venugopal. Why Congress Picked The Man It Had To

The Congress bit the Kerala chief minister bullet Thursday and picked VD Satheesan - the 'people's choice' - over its preferred pick - KC Venugopal - as the head of its new government. He is expected to be sworn in on May 18.

Satheesan, 61, was widely seen as the underdog in this race.

Venugopal seemed to tick most, if not all, of the Congress' boxes for this role. He has been credited with helping lead the party to an emphatic win in last month's election - the Congress-led United Democratic Front swept 102 of the state's 140 seats - and was hailed as 'nayakan', or 'hero', in posters displayed outside its state offices.

He was also the choice of 47 of the party's 63 MLAs and has significant administrative experience, having served as a minister at the centre and state. And the 63-year-old was also backed by Rahul Gandhi - who may no longer be the Congress boss but retains enormous influence over party decisions - and seen as 'way ahead' in the race.

But the longer the Congress took to make the announcement - today's presser confirming Satheesan came 10 days after the election result - the more it became clear there was a hitch.

Satheesan. Why?

The new chief minister has the political and electoral authority to match Venugopal.

He served as the Leader of the Opposition in the previous House and has dominated the Paravur seat, winning it from the Communist Party's P Raju in 2001 - by 7,434 votes - and making it a Congress bastion.

And he is also seen as the 'people's candidate' - an edge underlined by a flood of angry posters this week warning the Congress against naming Venugopal as the new chief minister.

Man of the moment: VD Satheesan (File)

Finally, he has also been credited with critical interventions for the Congress' big win.

In fact, sources said Satheesan told party leadership he could have won more seats for it had candidates chosen by him - rather than those by Venugopal - been fielded in Nenmara, Kazhakootam, Wadakanchery, Nedumangad and Cherthala. 

But the ace up his sleeve was support from the Congress' allies.

Satheesan was reportedly backed by the Indian Union Muslim League, the Kerala Congress, and the Revolutionary Socialist Party, which have 32 seats between them. Simply put, the Congress simply could not afford to lose that many. If all three parties - irked by Venugopal being chosen - withdrew support, it would have been with only 70 seats - one below majority.

Of these three, the biggest factor was likely the IUML with 22 seats. Losing just the IUML's support would not have robbed the Congress of that majority, but it would have left it without critical grassroots support. The Muslim League's ground force ensured Rahul Gandhi won the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat in 2019 and 2024, and in Priyanka Gandhi's by-election win.

And this support is also beneficial in other seats across the state, meaning the IUML is a valued ally.

IUML's nod of approval

Speaking to reporters after the announcement, IUML state chief Sayyid Sadiq Ali Shihab Thangal congratulated Satheesan and said his party 'fully supports the Congress' decision'. "The decision has come (and) with the people of Kerala, we also approve it. Satheesan will be able to deliver good governance,” he said, acknowledging the Congress sought IUML counsel.

But the choice has invited the BJP to fire 'Congress is Muslim Leage; taunts at its rival.

What he said

Minutes after being named as Pinarayi Vijayan's sucesssor, Satheesan praised Venugopal (and Ramesh Chennithala, the dar horse in this race) and offered a message of unity and support. "I do not see this position as a personal achievement... it was Venugopal who coordinated all the activities (and) his support was immense. Chennithala is also my leader."

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"I will take all of them into my confidence," he said, appealing for support from overlooked leaders and their followers. "I seek the support of every section of people... only a collective effort can build a new Kerala. No one can do it alone..."

Venugopal. Why not?

There were good reasons to pick either leader. But, in addition to the IUML backing Satheesan, what likely swung the needle against Venugopal was his position as a Lok Sabha MP.

If the party had installed him as the new chief minister, he would have to resign that position and stand for a by-election within six months of being inducted to the state office.

This is not without precedence. In 2011 and 2021 Mamata Banerjee was forced to contest by-elections to remain the Bengal chief minister and in 2017 Yogi Adityanath was named chief minister of Uttar Pradesh when he too was a Lok Sabha MP.

However, this introduces uncertainty into the process.

Close but no cigar: Congress MP KC Venugopal loses race to be Kerala chief minister (File)

Venugopal would certainly have been fielded from a Congress stronghold - Ernakulam (held since 2011), for example - or from Alappuzha, which he held for a decade and which he still represents in the Lok Sabha.

But there is always the danger of an upset.

And defeat for the sitting chief minister - apart from upending the government - would have been an embarrassment.

Also, fielding Venugopal as chief minister would have also triggered a second by-election - for the Alappuzha Lok Sabha seat he holds - and require the party to replace him as its General Secretary, a critical organisational role. 

What he said

Like Satheesan, Venugopal offered a diplomatic message. He said he accepted the party's decision and preferred to focus on its "stunning victory". He told reporters: “Satheesan has been appointed as chief minister. I was saying the decision of the High Command will prevail, and it is my responsibility to see that the decision is respected and implemented.”

The end game

For the Congress, this was a critical decision not only because Kerala is one of just four states where it holds power on its own; the other three are Telangana (Revanth Reddy), Himachal Pradesh (Sukhvinder Sukhu), and Karnataka (Siddaramaiah).

It was important to ensure that whoever the party picked had enough internal support to see out the five-year term without having to look over his shoulder at rivals gunning for his position, as is the case in neighbouring Karnataka, where Siddaramaiah and his deputy, DK Shivakumar have been locked in a power struggle that has run for the past three years.

Equally, the Congress would have also been keen to consolidate the anti-BJP bloc that is forming in South India, the last hold-out against the saffron wave that has dominated the Hindi heartland and the northeast, and has now also captured Bengal.

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The Congress now directly controls three of five southern states and is part of the ruling government in a fourth - Tamil Nadu, where it is allied with the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam of superstar actor Vijay, the state's latest cinema-to-politics chief minister.

For all these reasons, and likely more that will be revealed in the next few hours and days, the Congress opted to step back from Venugopal, the man it wanted and chose Satheesan, the man it had to.