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AIADMK-DMK Tie-Up Buzz Amid Vijay Suspense: What's Next For Tamil Nadu?

Vijay's TVK won 108 seats in the April election but fell 10 short of majority, the scenario leading to chaos in Tamil Nadu as the actor tries to rally the extra numbers while his rivals - the DMK and AIADMK - plot a historic alliance to keep him out of power.

AIADMK-DMK Tie-Up Buzz Amid Vijay Suspense: What's Next For Tamil Nadu?
DMK leaders MK Stalin (L) and Edappadi Palaniswami (R, File photos).
  • Tamil Nadu governor gives Vijay time till May 10 to form the government
  • DMK may support AIADMK if Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) fails to form government
  • DMK insists AIADMK cut ties with BJP before any external support talks begin
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The stand-off between Tamil Nadu Governor RV Arlekar and superstar actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam - which won 108 seats in last month's election to finish as the single-largest party, though 10 short of majority - seemed to have opened the doors for an unprecedented Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance.

But hours later NDTV was told "nothing has been decided on outside support to the AIADMK". Sources insisted the DMK would honour the governor's decision to give Vijay time till May 10, and only try to form a government if the TVK cannot. 

Earlier Friday, NDTV learned the AIADMK had been asked to cut ties with the Bharatiya Janata Party, a 'communal party' - with which it had allied for the election - before any discussion. The DMK indicated it could only then consider external support, though with additional conditions, such as ministerial berths for smaller allies like the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi.

The DMK reportedly hopes this will persuade the VCK to deny Vijay two more seats as he tries to put together a post-poll coalition. And that plan seems to be working; separately, sources said the VCK - which seemed to be leaning towards Vijay - is now back with the DMK and is talking to the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Communist Party of India.

The CPM and CPI were also approached by Vijay, who seems to be working off a Congress + Left + VCK formula to pick up nine extra seats to put the TVK inches from the majority mark of 118. But the Left, which has four seats, is not seen to be in favour of a DMK-AIDMK alliance, preferring to stay neutral or, as some within want, move to ally with Vijay and the TVK.

CPI General Secretary D Raja told reporters Arlekar must follow "established practices, conventions" and invite Vijay to have first shot at forming the government. On a possible DMK-AIADMK deal, he said: "I do not know..."

The Congress has committed its five seats, a switch that means it is now fighting the DMK, with whom it won three elections in the past seven years. Manickam Tagore - among a handful who anticipated Vijay's triumph and pushed for a pre-poll deal - this morning accused the DMK of having 'betrayed secularism' by aligning with the 'BJP's B team', i.e., the AIADMK.

The Congress' switch was met with a taunt from the BJP. The party's National General Secretary, BL Santosh, said on X: "Only time will tell who will form Tamil Nadu government. But one thing is for sure...Congress will end up with egg on its face."

A DMK-AIADMK deal will be 120-strong, assuming each party's allies remain on board.

Apart from the VCK and Left, these are the Indian Union Muslim League (two seats) and Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (one) for the DMK, and Pattali Makkal Katchi (four seats) and Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (one) for the AIADMK.

The DMK-AIADMK 'alliance'

It appears the two big Dravidian parties' are driven by similar fears - that the rise of Vijay will keep both out of power for the foreseeable future.

For the DMK this brings back memories of 1977-87 when the AIADMK, led by the iconic MG Ramachandran, kept it from winning any election till after MGR died.

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Iconic AIADMK leader and ex-Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MG Ramachandran (File)

The AIADMK is driven by identical, though more recent, concerns, with sections within pointing to the Stalin-led DMK's control in the past decade, in which the AIADMK lost three straight polls.

RECAP | AIADMK-DMK Pact Could Happen, With Nudge From BJP: Sources

Both sides, however, are keenly aware of potentially massive backlash from voters, not only because of the mandate Vijay was given - the TVK picked up 35 per cent of the votes - but also from hardcore supporters from each camp.

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DMK leader and outgoing Deputy Chief Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin (File).

Ironically, many have seen the BJP's hand in this coming-together; the theory is that the saffron party is determined - even at the cost of excluding itself - to keep the Congress from even a share of power in Tamil Nadu.

Speculation also linked the BJP to the stand-off between the TVK and Arlekar.

RECAP | Vijay Pressured Since He Opposed BJP? 'Political Rhetoric' Reply

But the party's state unit spokesperson, N Thirupathy, said otherwise, telling reporters, "It is a fractured verdict... TVK doesn't have a majority. If he (Vijay) proves a majority, then the governor will constitutionally accept it. There is no confusion..."

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