China's Humanoid Robot Market Could Reach $15 Billion By 2030: Morgan Stanley

China's humanoid robot industry will continue to expand and ship around 50,000 items by the end of this year, according to the Morgan Stanley forecast. This comes as commercial adoption accelerates across the country.

In January 2026, Morgan Stanley forecast that China would ship 14,000 humanoid robots in 2026. It later raised the estimate to 28,000 units and has now increased it again to 50,000 units.

The bank estimates that China's humanoid robot market will be worth around $2 billion this year. It expects the market to grow rapidly and reach $15 billion by 2030. Morgan Stanley also expects annual shipments to rise sharply over the next few years. 

By 2030, China could ship as many as 446,000 humanoid robots a year. The forecast only includes robots sold to customers. It does not include robots made for research, testing, prototypes or internal company use. Many Chinese companies are increasing production and testing robots in places such as factories, convenience stores and restaurants.

Sheng Zhong, an equity analyst at Morgan Stanley, said, "Commercial verification, policy support, and supply-chain feedback point to faster humanoid adoption in China," according to CNBC.

According to research firm Omdia, around 13,000 humanoid robots were shipped worldwide last year. Chinese companies led the industry, taking the top five spots in global shipments. US-based company Figure AI ranked seventh, while Tesla was ninth in terms of robot shipments.

Earlier this year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company's Optimus humanoid robot would not be sold to the public until the end of 2027.

Joe Ngai, chairman of McKinsey Greater China, said humanoid robots could become the next major investment opportunity in China's technology sector. "If you go to any Chinese factory right now, there's more automation and robotics that's been deployed than anywhere else in the world," he said.

The Chinese government has also made "embodied AI" a key focus for the next five years. Embodied AI refers to artificial intelligence that is built into physical machines such as robots, allowing them to perform tasks in the real world.

Beijing is also asking local governments to support robotics and AI startups by providing benefits such as cheap or free land, office space and other resources.