Just 5 Votes: Rajya Sabha Poll Math Puts Congress On Edge In Madhya Pradesh

As Madhya Pradesh moves closer to the crucial Rajya Sabha elections, a twist has sharpened the political contest. Vijaypur MLA Mukesh Malhotra, despite getting relief from the Supreme Court on his disqualification, remains barred from voting. This development has quietly altered the legislative arithmetic and triggered intense speculation about whether the Congress can hold on to what appears to be its only assured seat.

With three Rajya Sabha seats from the state set to fall vacant and elections expected in April-May, the battle will hinge on how the numbers add up. In the 230-member Assembly, the number of MLAs needed to get candidates elected for each seat stands at 58. The BJP, with a strength of over 160 MLAs, is firmly positioned to secure two seats without any trouble. The real contest lies in the third seat, where the Congress finds itself on increasingly shaky ground.

The resignation of Deputy Leader of Opposition Hemant Katare, officially attributed to "family reasons", has added another layer of intrigue. Katare has denied any political rift, but speculation is rife about him switching sides. 

The Congress, which now officially has 65 MLAs, is effectively down to 63. One MLA, Nirmala Sapre from the Bina constituency, is facing disqualification proceedings under the anti-defection law, while Mukesh Malhotra's inability to vote further reduces the party's effective strength. That leaves the Congress with just five surplus votes over the required 58.

The BJP, with its 165 MLAs, can secure two seats outright, requiring 116 votes. After that, it will be left with 47 surplus votes - just 11 short of the numbers needed for a third seat.

Recent Rajya Sabha elections in Haryana and Odisha have seen unexpected cross-voting, while in Bihar, absentee MLAs altered outcomes entirely. The Congress could, thus, lose its only assured Rajya Sabha seat in Madhya Pradesh if even five to six MLAs cross-vote or abstain. 

Unease In Congress

Adding to the Congress's problems is its MLA Abhijit Shah's recent appearance at a Hindu conference linked to RSS circles. Shah, a young MLA from Timarni and nephew of BJP minister Vijay Shah, was felicitated on stage and later shared a video of the event. The message behind him - 'Hindu unity is the solution to all problems' - has only added to the unease within Congress ranks.

Similarly, Congress MLA Bhairo Singh Parihar had earlier publicly stated that he remains associated with the RSS despite being in the Congress. 

The BJP is also playing to these fears, with its leaders pointing to dissent within the Congress and suggesting that the saffron party ending up getting a third seat would not be a surprise. BJP MLA Mohan Singh Rathore has also taken a dig at the Congress' track record of managing its legislators.

Playing another wildcard is the Bharat Adivasi Party. Its lone MLA, Kamleshwar Dodiyar, has expressed its intent to field a candidate, arguing that tribal representation should not remain confined to the two major parties.

Within the Congress, a consensus over its candidate is also still evolving. State President Jitu Patwari has indicated that veteran leader Digvijaya Singh would be a strong contender, even as he himself ruled out joining the race, citing the "dignity and responsibility" of his current position. Singh has already stated that he is not keen on a third Rajya Sabha term, though he reaffirmed his commitment to the party, saying he would continue to serve it till his last breath.