Analysis | After Opposition Rebellions, NDA May Need Just 6 More Votes For Delimitation

Indian politics has taken a turn over the last two weeks and is suddenly navigating uncharted waters. And the big picture is one that few would have expected even a month ago. 

In April, a Constitution amendment bill linked to delimitation, that was part of the women's reservation package, was blocked by the combined weight of the Opposition. The bill was stopped cold by 54 votes in the Lok Sabha.

Were the bill to be presented again, it might just pass. This, sources indicate, is the upshot of the big political upheaval in Bengal, and the smaller one brewing in Maharashtra.

Photo Credit: Lok Sabha TV

Following the defeat of Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress on May 4, the party is folding in at every level. While the legislative party in the state assembly was the first to split, it is the ripple effect in parliament that will have the bigger impact.

Read: "Rs 50 Crore, Private Jets": Uddhav Sena MP's Big Charge Amid Party Split Buzz

Of the 28 Lok Sabha MPs of Trinamool Congress, 20 MPs separated and merged their faction with a little-known party - the Nationalist Citizens Party Of India. Though registered in Bengal, the party had made its electoral debut in Tripura - and failed spectacularly. Now the addition of the Trinamool rebels will take it straight to parliament - and place it squarely in the NDA. 

In Maharashtra, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena UBT appears to be in the same predicament. Six of Thackeray's nine MPs appear to be on the verge of a walkout. Reports say they will join with Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena.

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The big winner from all these changes will be the NDA, which could almost touch its goal of two-thirds majority before the monsoon session begins. The fraction is crucial, since it is key to pushing through Constitution Amendment Bills.

The numbers provide a clear picture.

Two-thirds of the 543 Lok Sabha seats is 362. But with three seats vacant, the majority figure becomes 360.

At present, the NDA, including the breakaway faction of the Trinamool Congress, has 318 MPs in the Lok Sabha. The Opposition has 184 MPS. There are also 38 MPs who are non-aligned. So, to pass Constitution amendment Bills, the government needs 42 MPs. 

But that's just on paper.  The rules also say that the number of MPs "present and voting" in the  house during the passage of the bill is the bottomline. 

For example, at the time of voting on the Women's Reservation Bill and a Constitution Amendment Bill in the budget session, 528 of 540 members were present and the majority figure was 352.

Data showed that 298 votes were cast in favor of the government and the bill was defeated in the Lok Sabha by 54 votes. Going by that scenario -- where 12 MPs were absent -- the government needs to get 54 MPs on its side. 

Of this 54 MPs, 20 will be the Trinamool rebels, who are now part of NCPI. If the six Sena UBT rebels cross over, they will take the figure to 26.

Photo Credit: X@ombirlakota

There is also MK Stalin's DMK, which is out of the Opposition INDIA bloc following its split with the Congress and could be induced to provide support to the government. 

Party leaders hinted that the government is in talks with the DMK and if it accepts DMK's demand, the Dravidian party's 22 MPs will take the figure to 348 - just six short of majority.

On where this last six will come from -- Om Prakash Rajbhar, a minister from Uttar Pradesh, has pointed to the Samajwadi Party. The problem is to make a dent in the SP, especially ahead of next year's assembly election. 

The BJP, party leaders indicated, will keep its eyes on other parties of the INDIA alliance which are small. Some BJP leaders have indicated that the party is in touch with some of the smaller parties in INDIA alliance, one of which is from Maharashtra.

As far as Rajya Sabha is concerned, 164 MPs are needed for a two-thirds majority. 

Read: Uddhav Sena MP Abuses 'Rebels', Then A "Don't Cut It" Note For Media

The maximum sanctioned strength of the Rajya Sabha is 250, but it currently has 245 members. 

The NDA has 150 MPs. With the support of the 8 DMK MPs, the number will reach 158 and only six will be needed there too. It is highly possible that after a Rajya Sabha by-election -- in view of the resignation of three Trinamool MPs -- and the support of some smaller parties, the NDA could reach the magic figure.

Once that happens, the Women's Reservation and Delimitation Bill will be back. It could even be as early as the monsoon session - which is due to begin next month. There are also those also who say that a bill to effect "One nation one election" will not be far behind.