Pongal / Sankranti is one of the biggest festivals in South India and film releases at this time see unprecedented box office success thanks to the long holiday window from January 9 to January 18. This year, it was Thalapathy Vijay's Jana Nayagan and Sivakarthikeyan's Parasakthi, both with strong political overtones, that were set to clash at the box office.
Unfortunately, both the films ran into censor issues but director Sudha Kongara's Parasakthi is likely to meet its January 10 release date if its censor certificate reaches the team by today evening say trade analysts.
Jana Nayagan, which was set to release on January 9, has been officially postponed due to the withholding of the censor certificate by the Central Board of Film Certification (CBFC) which is seeking another revising committee to review the film. The Jana Nayagan case is set to come up in the Madras High Court again on January 9.
Jana Nayagan was expected to make a whopping Rs 150 crore on Day 1 since it was Thalapathy Vijay's last film before his full-fledged entry into Tamil Nadu politics. The eight-day holiday period following January 9 was seen as the perfect box office window for the film's release ahead of the Tamil Nadu elections in which Vijay and his party Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) were making their debut.
Expectations were high and fans around the world are now left disappointed with the delay in the release of a film that is being touted as a tribute to Thalapathy's 33 years in cinema.
But what does the postponement of the Vijay-H Vinoth film mean in terms of box office? And how soon the KVN Productions film might release given the CBFC issues?
Financial Woes For Jana Nayagan Producers
Jana Nayagan was expected to have one of the biggest day 1 collections in Kollywood history. Right now, though, refunds are being issued globally to all those who had bought tickets for the film on January 9.
As of now, the total estimated refund is about Rs 40 crore, with the United States advance ticket sales standing at USD 1 million (Rs 9 crore approximately). In Malaysia, nearly one lakh tickets were sold for Day 1, say reports, while Sacnilk noted that Jana Nayagan had collected Rs 7.7 crore in pre-sales.
Speaking to NDTV, Tamil producer and National Award winner G Dhananjayan explains, "The delay in the release of a big film like Jana Nayagan definitely causes serious financial issues for the producer (KVN Productions).
"The release of the film in territories like Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and North India are being handled by KVN Productions itself. However, the movie rights for Tamil Nadu have been sold at Rs 100 crore, Kerala rights at Rs 15 crore and overseas rights Rs 78 crore - all on minimum guarantee (MG) basis. Now, this amounts to Rs 193 crore on MG basis."
According to G Dhananjayan, this figure would have been paid by distributors based on the eight-day holiday period (January 9 to January 18) of Pongal where festive spending is high among the public and the Tamil audience will flock to theatres.
"Now that Jana Nayagan has been postponed, it will no longer have the luxury of an eight-day holiday period which is vital for the box office collections of any big film that releases during Pongal. One possible scenario I foresee is that distributors could tell KVN Productions to keep the Rs 193 crore as advance and adjust it based on the box office collections when it releases. If the movie falls short of collecting the advance amount, distributors could unfortunately ask for a refund," he added.
Suspense Over New Jana Nayagan Release Date
There are no other major Tamil movie releases this January since traditionally Pongal always sees the release of big star films, which occupy most theatres and run for a long period. Smaller films that try to release during this festive period always get washed away and producers prefer not to compete during this juncture. So, will Jana Nayagan manage to release next week as there are no other big films this month?
Film trade analysts believe that the CBFC certificate for Jana Nayagan is unlikely to be issued this week as the Censor Board wants a new revision committee. Given that the courts are on leave from January 13 to January 18 in Chennai, the case could prolong.
Thus, the possibility of the film releasing next week seems dim according to them.
A trade analyst on the condition of anonymity told NDTV, "Jana Nayagan has been made on a budget of Rs 500 crore and the producer needs a strong holiday period to ensure they recover the investments. While the sale of OTT and satellite rights will not be affected by delay of the film, the theatrical collections will be affected."
The next long holiday in January is the 26th weekend and the producers could decide to release it on January 23, the insider said.
"But this is just a four-day holiday period and overall box collections will be affected. The Day 1 collections worldwide could still be Rs 150 crore given it is Vijay's last film. The kind of business the film could have done during Pongal would have been at another level because overseas also Pongal is a holiday period and strong overseas collections are critical."
Everyone is eagerly waiting for the Jana Nayagan case to come up in court on January 9 so that they can finally hear about a release date from the producer. Though Vijay fans are expressing their disappointed on social media on not being able to catch their Thalapathy on screen on Friday, the fact remains that Thalapathy Vijay is a star to reckon with and no matter when his film releases, his fans will ensure it becomes a box office blockbuster.
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