Gaurav Garg, Research Analyst Lemonn Markets Desk

The Indian stock market ended on a cautious note today, with the Nifty 50 settling at 23815.85, down by -436 points or -1.83%. The session reflected a mild downward bias, with price action indicating a rising  wedge pattern. The index opened at 23722.6, touched an intraday high of 23757.55, and slipped to a low of 23348.4. The Sensex also closed lower, declining -1456.03 points, ending the session on a weaker footing.

Sector-wise, the market remained under heavy selling pressure with a clear negative trend across all major sectors. IT was the top laggard with steep declines, followed by Realty, Consumer Durables, and Media, reflecting weakness in high-beta segments. Banking and financial indices, including Nifty Bank, Financial Services, PSU Bank, and Private Bank, also ended lower, contributing to the overall drag. Auto, Metals, and Chemical sectors stayed weak, while Oil & Gas witnessed comparatively milder losses. Defensive segments like Pharma and Healthcare showed relative resilience but still closed in the red. Overall, the sectoral outlook remained broadly bearish with widespread declines.

On the fundamental front, the market remained under pressure due to rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which pushed global crude oil prices above the $100-105 per barrel range, increasing concerns over inflation and India's higher import bill. The surge in oil prices, driven by supply disruption fears, weighed on investor sentiment, especially for an oil-import-dependent economy like India. Additionally, the Indian rupee weakened towards the Rs 95/$ mark amid continued FII outflows and elevated crude prices, raising concerns over the current account deficit and forex stability. Weak global cues, persistent foreign selling, and heightened volatility further contributed to the overall risk-off sentiment in the market.

At the close on Monday, the total BSE Sensex market cap was Rs 4,67,30,829. However, it plummeted to Rs 4,56,99,946 at the close on Tuesday.

The Nifty50 was trading 399.55 points or 1.68 per cent down at 23,416.90, and the Sensex was trading 1,349.95  points or 1.78 per cent down at 74,668.30.

The Export-Import Bank of India (EXIM Bank) plans to raise about Rs 99,500 crore ($10.5 billion) in fiscal 2027 ​through domestic and overseas borrowing, its managing director said, ​as the bank looks to strengthen its funding profile.

As per NDMA, at least 23 states regularly see dangerously high temperatures. This underscores the emerging need for "heat insurance" in India. Read full report here

Deel, the global HR and Payroll company through Deel IT is expanding into software management, bringing license purchasing, renewal management, and spend optimization into one platform. To accelerate that, Deel is acquiring Sastrify, a SaaS procurement and management platform built to give companies real visibility into what software they're buying, what they're actually using, and what it's all costing them.

Sastrify was built by founders Sven and Max, who've spent their careers solving exactly this problem. They understand the complexity of SaaS procurement at scale, the hidden costs, the fragmented workflows, the contracts that slip through. We're bringing their entire team's expertise into Deel, pairing their knowledge with more resources and reach to build a full-stack solution for customers.

As of 1:00 PM, the Nifty50 was trading 295.15 points or 1.24 per cent down at 23,521.50, and the Sensex was trading 1,023.60 points or 1.35 per cent down at 74,981.80.

Abhilash Maurya, CoFounder and CEO at Naxatra labs

India today has the core ingredients required to emerge as a global technology and manufacturing powerhouse -- a strong engineering talent pool, growing manufacturing capabilities, an evolving supply chain ecosystem, and a domestic market large enough to develop, test, and scale world-class technologies.

The next phase of India's technology growth will depend on how deeply the country invests in indigenous design, advanced manufacturing, and core engineering capabilities rather than only assembly-led innovation. Across sectors such as electric mobility, automation, energy systems, and industrial technologies, there is a growing opportunity for India to build globally competitive products from the ground up.

The global technology landscape is undergoing a major realignment, and this presents a significant opportunity for Indian deep-tech and manufacturing-led companies. However, long-term leadership will require sustained focus on research, product development, localisation, and intellectual property creation. India's technology journey now needs to be defined not just by speed of innovation, but by depth, capability, and the ability to build globally relevant technologies at scale.

UPL reported 4QFY26 adj. EBITDA of Rs 36.5bn (+13% yoy), broadly in line with EE, while higher tax expenses led to a PAT miss. FY26 adj. EBITDA increased 18% yoy to Rs 95.9bn, ahead of management's revised 12-16% growth guidance. Management withheld FY27E guidance amid Middle East-led volatility in crude-linked RM prices and demand trends. We nonetheless expect 11% EBITDA growth in FY27E driven by market share gains and inventory benefits. Maintain LONG with revised Jun'27 SOTP-based TP of Rs 890 (Earlier: Rs 850).

Healthy Execution Across Platforms: UPL reported a strong 4QFY26 with revenues up 18% yoy to Rs 183.4bn (EE: Rs 168.5bn), driven by healthy growth across three of its four platforms. UPL Corp revenues increased 20% yoy to Rs 145.3bn led by 10% volume growth, 4% pricing gains and 7% Fx tailwinds across geographies. Seeds business revenues grew 23% yoy to Rs 22bn supported by 10% volume growth, 4% pricing gains and 7% Fx gains, while Superform revenues increased 10% yoy to Rs 22.7bn driven by 10% volume growth and 1% pricing gains. UPL SAS revenues declined 10% yoy to Rs 6.1bn due to seasonally weak demand and product discontinuation. Adjusted EBITDA increased 13% yoy to Rs 36.5bn (EE: Rs 35.6bn), while margins declined 92bps yoy to 19.9%. Consolidated PAT increased 18% yoy to Rs 10.6bn (EPS: Rs 12.6) but was 19% below EE due to higher-than-expected tax expenses.

Balance Sheet Repair Complete: Net debt declined by US$ 400mn yoy to US$ 1.6bn at end-FY26, while working capital remained largely range-bound at 57 days vs 53 days at end-FY25. Net debt/EBITDA improved to 1.5x in FY26 from 2x in FY25, reflecting continued balance sheet strengthening. Management withheld FY27E guidance amid volatility in crude-linked RM prices and demand trends due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. However, it indicated capex could increase to US$ 300-350mn in FY27E, supported by the improved balance sheet position. Management also highlighted higher investments towards Superform for backward integration along with increased focus on ex-agrochemical opportunities. We believe the balance sheet repair phase is largely complete and focus is likely to shift back towards growth. While revenue forecasting remains challenging given RM price volatility, we expect EBITDA growth of ~11% in FY27E driven by market share gains and inventory benefits.

Restructuring Clouds Re-rating: We believe UPL has delivered a successful turnaround over the past two years, supported by a sharp improvement in the balance sheet. However, the restructuring/realignment of business verticals announced in Feb'26 has driven a sharp de-rating over the past three months. We expect near-term uncertainties to persist as investor focus shifts from balance sheet repair towards the execution and structure of the proposed reorganisation. In our view, the current structure carries multiple concerns which justify the recent de-rating; however, a simpler modification to the proposed structure could materially improve value creation for all stakeholders, including promoters, minority shareholders and PE investors. We maintain LONG with a revised Jun'27 SOTP-based TP of Rs 890 (Earlier: Rs 850).

UiPath (NYSE: PATH), a leader in agentic business orchestration, today announced the availability of agentic AI capabilities on UiPath Automation Suite globally, including India. The enhancement provides UiPath customers globally with the option to deploy agentic AI within their own infrastructure via cloud-hosted or self-hosted large-language models, giving customers control over domestic data residency without sacrificing enterprise-grade automation capabilities. 

ASSOCHAM lauds the Honourable Prime Minister's seven appeals to the Nation. These seven appeals made by the Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi Ji would go a long way to build and strengthen India's journey towards Viksit Bharat, said Mr Nirmal K Minda, President ASSOCHAM, in a press statement issued today on 11th May 2026.

The seven appeals are seven mantras to enhance India's resilience, competitiveness, and strength in the world of uncertain times, said Mr Minda.

Shift to EV and rail transport would help reduce pollution, speed up connectivity, and support Ease of Living in the country, said Mr Nirmal K Minda.

PM Modi's appeal to prefer public transport and metro travel would again support the logistics strength and fuel security of the country.

PM's appeal to reduce the use of chemical fertilisers and foreign travel will not only save forex reserves but also pave the way for India's mission towards Aatmanirbhar Bharat.

We appreciate the appeal to limit excessive gold purchases since it will help meet our forex requirements in uncertain times, as we import gold worth nearly $70 billion (FY26).

We believe that these seven appeals will be adopted by our citizens for the strong buildup of the Indian economy, the welfare of people, and the strength of the Indian economy in the global ecosystem.

The Thesis

With India VIX up 10% near 18.55 and Brent printing $105 on Trump's "massive life support" Iran remarks, InvestorAi is rotating sharply into earnings that don't depend on the cycle. The book is a pharma overweight stitched to a metals tactical - a defensive core that monetises a weak rupee, plus selective exposure to commodity inflation. GIFT Nifty down 0.8% premarket confirms the cautious setup.

Where We're Concentrated

Nearly half the conviction names sit in pharma and healthcare - CDMO, formulations, hospitals. This is a deliberate flight to dollar-earnings and policy-insulated demand while FIIs sell and the Strait of Hormuz risk lingers. The thesis breaks only if crude collapses fast and risk appetite snaps back to high-beta financials - a low-probability path while VIX is climbing.

Conviction Picks

HIGHEST CONVICTION

Laurus Labs

CDMO leverage to dollar revenue is the cleanest hedge to today's rupee/crude tape.

HIGHEST CONVICTION

Vodafone Idea

Telecom remains the rate-insensitive cash flow story domestic flows are crowding into.

Tech Mahindra

IT services as a defensive dollar earner while FIIs unwind cyclicals.

Ipca Laboratories

Domestic formulations plus export mix - mirrors the broader pharma flight to safety.

Vedanta

Commodity tactical - rides the same crude/metals impulse driving today's macro stress.

One Thing to Watch

Brent above $108. A sustained break extends the pharma overweight; a sharp pullback would force a rotation back into rate-sensitives.

While energy-secure nations found room to manoeuvre, several oil-dependent economies absorbed the harshest shock of the Iran war. Read full report here

CoinSwitch Markets Desk

BTC briefly moved above $82K early in the session before Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal, sending BTC back below $81K. Escalating geopolitical tensions pushed Brent crude close to $105, creating broader pressure across risk assets, including crypto. Even with the volatility, BTC continued to hold the important $80K support zone, showing underlying market resilience. Institutional demand also remains active, with Strategy purchasing another 535 BTC at an average price of $80,340. On the derivatives side, a large concentration of short liquidations is building near $82.5K, meaning a move above that level could accelerate upside momentum.

Experts say the pressure on the GST system is increasing because compliance requirements are becoming more complex and more automated. Read full report here

Among the Sensex constituents, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, TCS, HCL Tech, and Adani Ports were the top laggards. SBI, Bharti Airtel, M&M, Tata Steel, and Eternal were the gainers. 

The Nifty Midcap 100 index fell 0.31 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 was down 0.41 per cent.

The Delhi Chapter of the National Real Estate Development Council (NAREDCO), under the aegis of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, hosted its Delhi Members Meet and panel discussion titled "TOD - Changing Delhi's Skyline" recently at Shangri-La Eros New Delhi.

The evening brought together policymakers, urban planners, architects, developers and industry stakeholders to deliberate on the implications of the Delhi TOD Policy 2026 and its potential to reshape the capital through mobility-centric and infrastructure-led urban development.

The discussions focused on how Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) can unlock a new phase of planned urban transformation across Delhi by integrating housing, mobility, commercial development and public infrastructure around metro and regional transit corridors. Industry experts highlighted that the newly notified policy creates one of the largest urban redevelopment opportunities in Delhi in recent decades, with nearly 207 km of metro-linked corridors and an estimated 30-40 sq km of immediately developable TOD land expected to drive long-term urban regeneration and redevelopment activity.

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty dropped 360 points on Monday and moved below the 20-day moving average to settle at 23,815.9-its third consecutive daily loss, with the session showing a significant bearish candle on a gap-down open. The decline followed failed US-Iran peace talks and Prime Minister Modi's call for austerity. Overnight, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs, each rising about 0.2%, as optimism driven by AI overcame high energy prices. Asian markets are mixed this morning. Brent oil stays near $105, copper trades close to an all-time high, silver jumped over 6% to $85, while gold remains above $4,740. GIFT Nifty is trading roughly 120 points lower, indicating a negative start. Technically, 23,700 is now critical support; dropping below could quickly lead to 23,500. Bulls need a daily close above 24,200 to regain the upper hand.

The GIFT Nifty is trading over 200 points lower.

Silver gains 6% overnight , a 2-month high. Gold prices edge higher to a three-week high.

Nitin Agrawal, CEO, Mutual Funds, InCred Money on the AMFI Data 

Equity-oriented open-ended schemes attracted net inflows of Rs 38,440 crore in April, a bullish signal for equity markets at a time of geopolitical uncertainty.

Flexi Cap retains its dominant position with net inflows of Rs 10,147 crore, the highest among all equity categories by a significant margin. The message here is consistent with what the data has been signalling for several months. In an environment where valuation dispersion across market caps is meaningful and earnings visibility varies, investors continue to reward mandates that give fund managers the latitude to navigate freely across the cap curve.

Small Cap edges ahead of Mid Cap. Small Cap funds attracted Rs 6,885 crore in net inflows versus Mid Cap's Rs 6,551 crore. This is a notable positioning signal. Small Cap funds have historically seen sharper drawdowns during periods of market stress, and the fact that investors are not only holding but actively adding to this category suggests either renewed confidence in the India growth story at the margin, or an allocation catch-up by investors who see post-correction value in smaller companies. 

Sectoral and Thematic Funds recorded net inflows of Rs 1,949 crore, subdued relative to their peak months and meaningfully lower than the broad equity categories. This is a healthy development. The frenzy of sectoral and thematic NFO-driven inflows that characterised earlier periods appears to be moderating, with investors showing a preference for diversified mandates over concentrated sectoral bets.

Multi Asset Allocation funds attracted Rs 5,113 crore in net inflows in April,  a number that continues to grow in significance month-on-month. With AUM of Rs 1,87,071 crore, this category is no longer a niche satellite choice. It is fast becoming a preferred vehicle for investors who want a single-fund solution to the asset allocation problem

From an overall perspective, equity participation is structurally deepening and diversifying. Investors are not clustering into a single market cap segment or a single theme, flows are spread across Flexi Cap, Small Cap, Mid Cap, Large & Mid Cap, and Multi Cap simultaneously. That is the behaviour of a market where investor sophistication is genuinely improving.

Second, the shift toward balanced structures is gathering pace. Multi Asset Allocation funds pulling in over Rs 5,000 crore in a single month, alongside a recovery in Arbitrage and sustained inflows into Dynamic Asset Allocation funds, suggests that investors are beginning to think in portfolio terms rather than individual fund terms. That is a meaningful structural evolution.

At the close on Monday (May 11), the total market capitalisation of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,67,30,829.