There is no single Modinomics textbook or formula. Instead, the term has come to describe a collection of choices made during the PM Modi years. Read full report here

In another landmark decision, the Tata Sons board has also cleared public listing of the conglomerate. Read full report here

Most Tata Group shares gained up to 5 per cent as hopes for Tata Sons' listing rose after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rejected its application to de-register as non-banking financial company (NBFC). 

India's data centre expansion is creating concentrated risks across power, construction, water, cyber and operations, according to new research from Howden, the global insurance broker. The findings call for an integrated approach from site selection and design through construction and operation to build resilience and secure insurance.

Howden's analysis identifies power infrastructure as the biggest risk factor. The challenge is not just generation capacity but reliable grid connectivity, substation capacity and redundancy at each location.

Developers are focusing more on premium segments, given the current demand for housing from HNIs, NRIs, and other affluent segments. Read full report here

Ashok Chandak, President, IESA & SEMI India

"IESA applauds Suchi Semicon and CDIL on the commercial launch of semiconductor chip production in India. These milestones are a strong validation of the momentum India's semiconductor ecosystem is building-from policy intent to real manufacturing and commercial output.

Every commercial launch strengthens India's credibility, builds industry confidence and moves us closer to a resilient, globally trusted semiconductor value chain. The momentum is encouraging, and we look forward to seeing many more Indian and global companies move from investment and implementation to production and scale."

Ashish Chandra, Founder & CEO, GFF AI PTE. LTD., Singapore

UPI's next test is not simply whether merchants can be charged a fee, but whether they can clearly see the value that fee creates. A merchant fee is legitimate only when businesses can verify that they are receiving a more reliable, secure and useful payment service in return.

At 0.4% for eligible UPI merchant transactions above Rs 2,000, the proposed charge may appear modest, but its impact can be significant for businesses operating on thin margins. A Rs 40 fee on a Rs 10,000 transaction, for instance, represents 20% of the profit on a sale made at a 2% net margin. This makes transparency around costs, exemptions and settlement deductions particularly important.

The real measure of value should go beyond transaction volume. Payment providers should publish meaningful service metrics, including transaction success rates, outage duration, refund timelines, settlement reliability, dispute resolution and fraud-related losses. Merchants should be able to connect the fee they pay with measurable improvements in these areas.

AI can further strengthen this ecosystem through smarter reconciliation, fraud detection and dispute management, but its benefits must be measured against the total cost of implementation and human oversight.

Ultimately, the merchant should be able to see exactly what the fee funded. If that value can be demonstrated, the charge becomes payment for a better service rather than simply another deduction from merchant margins."

Umesh Sharma, CIO-Debt, The Wealth Company Mutual Fund

"Heading into the meeting, the Fed had held rates steady all year at 3.50%-3.75%, after three cuts in the second half of 2025. Inflation had stayed above the Fed's 2% target, and headline PCE prints had been rising recently - even as core, median and trimmed measures kept drifting toward target. Meanwhile the labour market stayed tight, growth remained resilient, and geopolitical risk (tensions in West Asia pushing up energy prices) had worsened since the July meeting. Bond yields had already been climbing for weeks on this backdrop - the 10-year Treasury rose roughly a quarter point since Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, and mortgage rates crept up near 7.19%. Markets had priced in the hike itself with high confidence (93% probability) with futures implying around 75 bps of hikes over the coming cycle.

The FOMC voted unanimously (12-0) to raise the target range by 25 bps, to 3.75%-4%, framing it as support for a "timelier" return of inflation to target. The move looks driven less by any single data print and more by the combination of a strong labour market, no clear sign of underlying inflation cooling, and rising geopolitical risk. The updated projections (SEP) revised both growth and inflation estimate modestly higher, but the committee's median dot (excluding Warsh) still pencilled in just one more hike for the cycle - well short of what markets had been pricing in. The shorter end yields rose and while longer end remained steady at elevated levels.

Markets are increasingly factoring in a Bank of Japan rate hike on 18 September, while the Reserve Bank of India is also expected to raise rates in forthcoming meetings, reflecting a broader global tightening trend with seven of the eight developed economies already in a rate-hike cycle."

Factrika, an on demand industrial workforce platform, today announced it has raised Rs 8.9 crore in seed funding led by Info Edge. Founded in July 2024, the company will use the capital to strengthen its team, deepen its technology, and expand into more industrial clusters across India.

Indian factories face a 20 to 25% daily worker shortage, driven by fragmented, low tech contractor staffing models, resulting in lost output, higher costs, and operational disruption. Factrika matches manufacturers with verified workers by skill and availability, enabling deployment within 2 hours. Workers accept shifts digitally, with the platform managing attendance and payments while building a verified digital work record that enables skill based career progression.

Gaurav Garg, Head - Research, Lemonn

Gold and silver are recovering after the recent sell-off as investors digest the U.S. Fed's 25-bps rate hike, although the Fed's hawkish guidance and expectations of further hikes are keeping yields and the dollar elevated. Oil prices are easing toward $101 as Saudi Arabia considers additional crude shipments, reducing immediate supply concerns despite ongoing Middle East tensions. For India, the rupee remains under pressure near 95.95 due to the stronger dollar and elevated oil prices, while precious metals may remain volatile as markets reassess the Fed's future rate path.

Giottus, India's third-largest crypto exchange, has launched the country's largest Funded Wallet Challenge, a programme that allows eligible crypto Futures traders to earn access to funded trading capital ranging from Rs 200 to Rs 1 lakh. Traders retain 100% of eligible realised profits generated through the funded wallet.

The challenge addresses a practical constraint faced by skilled retail traders. A trader may develop a sound strategy long before having the capital required to scale it. The usual choices are to commit more personal money or increase leverage. Both can substantially raise the financial risk. The Giottus challenge offers another route: demonstrate profitable and controlled trading over a defined period to qualify for funded capital.
 

Crowwd, an investing platform built around behavioral personalization, has raised Rs 2.5 crore in an angel round at an approximate valuation of Rs 50 crore from 30 investors, including Dr Ritesh Malik, Founder, Innov8; Three Words Capital; Sachin Panwar; Deepak Raina and Gaurav Nagar, Co-founders, YogaCleanAir; France-based Hexa Startup Studio; Somya Satsangi, Independent Director at Dr Lal Pathlabs; and Sachin Gupta, MD, Share India Securities.

The fundraise marks an important next phase for Crowwd as it evolves from an investor-focused social community into a wealth-tech platform with investing capabilities. The company is preparing to launch its in-app mutual fund distribution platform, bringing investment access directly into the Crowwd experience. Crowwd is an AMFI-registered mutual fund distributor.

Crowwd's platform is built around its proprietary Investor DNA framework, which maps investors into six behavioural profiles and shapes the experience around their individual investing patterns. With the launch of mutual fund distribution and subsequent acquisition of a brokerage platform, Crowwd is bringing these frameworks into the investment journey itself, alongside its financial content and investor community.

Lakshmi Venkataraman Venkatesan, Founding and Managing Trustee, Bharatiya Yuva Shakti Trust

UPI has played an important role in bringing millions of small and micro businesses into the digital economy. For a first-generation entrepreneur, accepting digital payments is not only about convenience. It creates a record of business activity, improves financial discipline and can help build the formal financial history needed as the enterprise grows. The decision to keep small merchants receiving up to Rs 1 lakh a month through UPI QR outside the MDR framework is therefore important. 

At the same time, we must recognise that Rs 1 lakh in monthly UPI collections can be a relatively modest level for a micro business that is beginning to grow. As these entrepreneurs move from survival to growth, the transition should continue to support digital adoption. The introduction of a 0.4% MDR on eligible merchant transactions above Rs 2,000 also brings the question of sustainability of the UPI ecosystem into focus. Sustainability is important, but it must go hand-in-hand with inclusion. As the framework evolves, it will be important to ensure that digital payments continue to remain accessible for grassroots entrepreneurs, enabling them to formalise their businesses and grow. The success of UPI's next phase should ultimately be measured not only by transaction volumes, but by how effectively it continues to enable India's smallest businesses to participate in the formal economy.

Vibhore Goyal, Founder, OneBanc on EPFO 

"The policy is right. The government has protected the employee's future -- a larger corpus, a larger pension, twenty to thirty years out. The question India Inc should be asking is who funds the present.

Employers recover their 12% through CTC, as they always have, so the employee carries both sides: Rs 2,400 a month, Rs 28,800 a year, across an estimated 4 crore capped-at-ceiling contributors. That is roughly Rs 1 lakh crore withdrawn from present-day take-home. EPFO's own narrower estimate of 51 lakh newly covered members accounts for Rs 14,700 crore of it. And about 69% of the incremental flow goes to EPS rather than EPF - longer-dated still, and not inheritable.

Companies can fund that gap today, and the law has already handed them the instrument. Meal at Rs 1.05 lakh, fuel and vehicle at Rs 84,000, gifting at Rs 15,000 -- over Rs 2 lakh of limits under the Income-tax Rules, 2026, and critically, available in both tax regimes. For an employee on Rs 24 lakh, that is more than Rs 50,000 back in hand, at unchanged cost to company. It is not a raise. It is a structure.

Deloitte puts increments at 9.1% and attrition at 17.6%. Employers who do nothing will have a workforce that feels materially poorer going into the festive quarter. Employers who restructure will be paying visibly more without spending more."

Dharmender Jhamb, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat

UPI Merchant Payments for which MDR is applicable, the transactions above Rs 2,000 represent only around 4% of total P2M transaction volume, but they contribute nearly 66% of overall P2M transaction value, as per GT Bharat estimates. For UPI P2P Payments, GT Bharat analysis indicates that transactions above Rs 2,000 contributed more than 86% of total P2P transaction value. Overall, High-value UPI transactions dominate overall payment value, even though they account for a relatively small share of transaction count.

UPI transactions above Rs 2,000 are primarily driven by salaried households, borrowers, affluent consumers, travellers, and small businesses using the platform for recurring obligations, financial commitments, discretionary spending, and business-related payments.

On UPI transactions above Rs 2,000, the most relevant merchants categories would be Rent & Housing, Utilities, Insurance, Financial Services, Government Payments, Healthcare, Travel, Education, and Consumer Electronics, which collectively represent the majority of planned and recurring high-value payments. As UPI continues to gain trust as a primary payment rail, it is increasingly being used for larger-ticket financial commitments that were traditionally routed through cards, net banking, or bank transfers.

Under the Code on Wages, basic pay, dearness allowance and retaining allowance are required to account for at least 50 per cent of total remuneration. Read full report here

Ankita Pathak, Head - Global Investments, Ionic Asset

The US Fed delivered a widely expected hike, with inflation emerging as the key concern. The Fed Chair noted that the committee removed a 'dose of accommodation' at this policy meeting, re-emphasizing that overall growth and labour market conditions remain sufficiently resilient. We believe a hike was justified at this stage, given increased inflationary pressures in the economy, with policy path now clearer than earlier. Yields on 2-year US Treasury notes which are highly influenced by Fed policy rate expectations shot to the highest level in more than two years after the release of the Fed's policy statement and projections. Yields on longer-dated bonds, meanwhile, held  steady, flattening the yield curve in an initial vote of confidence  that Warsh was at last acting on his running pledge to deliver price stability. A sustained USD strength could potentially impact EMs and commodities trade, however, an expected BoJ rate hike in the upcoming policy could limit further upside in the USD. Another hike stays a possibility in December 2026 but will be contingent on evolving macro landscape, especially energy prices. Back home, India may have to consider a hike in the next policy after Fed's move.

Ruchit Thakur, Market Analyst, VT Markets 

The Fed raised rates by 25 BPS to 4.00%, citing elevated inflation and resilient economic activity, while acknowledging high geopolitical uncertainty.

In the near term, the hawkish outcome supports the US dollar and Treasury yields, creating pressure on gold and silver as higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non yielding assets. Gold fell more than 1% and silver around 1.7% following the decision.

However, elevated policy and geopolitical uncertainty can create a counter effect as concerns over growth, trade, fiscal policy and geopolitical tensions can weaken confidence in risk assets and increase safe demand for gold and to some extent silver. If such uncertainty eventually pressures the dollar, precious metals could regain upward momentum.

Global markets: Higher US rates can tighten global financial conditions, strengthen the dollar, raise borrowing costs and pressure emerging-market currencies and equities. At the same time, safe-haven flows may support precious metals and high-quality sovereign bonds.

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Gold reversed its pre-Fed gains, falling below $4,300/oz to a fresh six-week low after the Fed delivered its expected 25-basis-point hike, its first since 2023. Gold had risen more than 1% ahead of the decision, but Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish tone and signal of further tightening weighed on prices. Silver followed the same pattern, easing to around $63/oz. Crude fell more than 3% as expectations grew that Saudi Arabia's damaged pipeline could be largely restored within days, while a weaker-than-expected US inventory draw added pressure. The rupee weakened to around ₹96.10/$, giving back recent gains from RBI intervention.

The Thesis
India's Nifty 500 held 0.24% as VIX eased to 13.16 even as global markets braced for the Fed. The overnight 25bps hike to 3.75-4% - first since 2023 - firms the dollar and validates the tilt into USD-earning exporters and industrial materials. Domestic capital markets add a separate, uncorrelated return stream via India's structural SIP and AUM wave.

Where We're Concentrated
Three distinct bands define today's exposure: consumer exports - basmati rice and home textiles - whose USD billings translate directly higher as INR tests ₹96; graphite electrodes riding global EAF steelmaking and energy-transition demand, indifferent to the domestic rate cycle; and domestic wealth management capturing India's equity AUM structural upswing. A dollar-billing US healthcare BPO adds a fourth uncorrelated leg. The thesis breaks if FII selling extends well past the post-Fed event clearing - sustained outflows would weigh on market sentiment even on these non-credit names.

Conviction Picks
Highest Conviction
LT Foods Ltd.
Basmati rice exporter - INR nearing ₹96 lifts dollar-billed realisations directly as currency eases.
Welspun Living Ltd.
Home textiles export play; rupee depreciation toward ₹96 fattens USD billings without domestic rate risk.
H.E.G. Ltd.
Graphite electrode maker - EAF steelmaking and EV battery demand drive volumes, rate-cycle agnostic.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
Wealth platform riding India's SIP structural wave; AUM growth and broking revenue not tied to credit cost.
Sagility Ltd.
US healthcare BPO billing in dollars; INR weakness amplifies margin with zero India rate-cycle exposure.
One Thing to Watch
FII flows intraday - reversal or extension Three sessions of net selling (₹2,032 Cr on Sep 16 alone) were fear-driven ahead of the Fed decision; now that the rate is set, if FIIs flip to buyers today the relief trade lifts the capital markets kicker - sustained selling on the dot plot's 'more hikes likely' signal means the USD-earning tilt carries the load longer.

Adidas India Job Cuts: The German sportswear giant has confirmed job cuts, while adding that the restructuring impact is less than 20% of operations. Read full report here

Gaurav Udani, Founder - Thincredblu 

"Nifty is expected to open around 23,180, down by nearly 30 points, indicating a mildly negative start. With Sensex expiry today, volatility is likely to remain high, and we can expect sharp intraday swings. The immediate support is around 23,000-23,100, while 23,400-23,600 remains the key resistance zone.

The overall view remains sell on rise as long as Nifty trades below 23,600. Any recovery towards the 23,400-23,600 zone can see selling pressure. A sustained move above 23,600 would indicate a change in the near-term trend and could bring back positive momentum.

On the downside, a break below 23,000 can lead to further weakness. Given the expiry, traders should avoid chasing sharp moves and instead use the key levels and price action to assess opportunities."

Raj P Narayanam, Executive Chairman, Zaggle

"NPCI's decision to introduce a 0.4% MDR on P2M UPI transactions above Rs 2,000, effective 15 October, is a calibrated and overdue correction. Zero MDR built India's digital payments habit but sustaining infrastructure of this scale, processing 24.51 billion transactions monthly, requires a viable revenue model. The framework is thoughtfully designed, consumers remain unaffected, small merchants are protected and the fee is capped at Rs 300. The real conversation now shifts to how equitably this revenue pool is distributed across the ecosystem participants who built it."
 

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange 

Crypto markets have moved into a recovery phase after a highly volatile Federal Reserve session, but the broader technical structure still remains cautious.
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, while its updated projections kept the possibility of another hike this year on the table and pointed to a restrictive policy path extending through 2027. The higher-for-longer message initially pushed the dollar and short-term Treasury yields higher and triggered a sharp two-way reaction across risk assets.
Bitcoin briefly tested the $75,000 area before recovering toward $76,300-$76,400, while Ether rebounded toward $2,425. Solana also outperformed during the recovery, showing that the initial post-FOMC selling pressure did not develop into a broader capitulation move.
Technically, however, the rebound is not yet a confirmed trend reversal. Bitcoin is still trading below its 20, 50 and 100 EMAs on the 4-hour chart, with the $76,600-$77,300 region acting as the first major resistance cluster. The 200 EMA near $75,370 remains an important support reference. A sustained move above $77,300 would improve the short-term structure, while $78,000 remains the next key level to watch.
Ethereum is showing a similar setup. Price has recovered from the $2,380-$2,400 area, but the $2,440-$2,465 zone remains the immediate resistance cluster. A move above roughly $2,480 would strengthen the recovery, while the 200 EMA near $2,360 continues to provide broader downside support.
The main takeaway is that crypto has absorbed the initial hawkish Fed shock relatively well, but the market is still in a post-event stabilisation phase rather than a clear bullish breakout. The next directional signal will depend on whether Bitcoin and Ether can reclaim these nearby resistance zones while the dollar, bond yields and broader macro conditions remain firm.

BTC is trading around $76.2K after a volatile week. BTC is down roughly 3% over the past seven days after failing to hold $80K, due to the failed CLARITY Act vote and the Fed's 25 bps rate hike. A break below current levels could pull BTC toward the $74.6K liquidity zone, with deeper support around $70.3K-$71.9K. A sustained move above $78.6K would improve momentum and bring $80K back into focus. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank's planned regulated crypto custody service in Germany signals continued institutional adoption and expansion of digital-asset infrastructure.

Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex

Bitcoin is trading near $76,000 after the Fed delivered a 25 basis point rate hike for the first time since 2023. BTC initially rallied but gave up those gains as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone, suggesting more tightening may follow. ETF demand also weakened sharply, with Bitcoin and Ethereum funds seeing combined outflows of nearly $592 million in a single day. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index fell to its lowest level in a month, pointing to softer US buying. However, crypto policy saw a positive development, with a bill to codify Trump's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve advancing through a House committee as the CLARITY Act failed.

Vaishali Patel, Senior Manager - Research- Technical Department at Jainam

Nifty recovering from the previous session's decline, but the broader technical structure remains weak. Nifty closed at 23,217.60 with a gain of 99 (0.43%) points.  U.S. markets closed lower overnight after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points and indicated the possibility of further hikes, reflecting concerns over higher borrowing costs and persistent inflation.
 
Asian markets are trading mostly higher, supported by bargain buying and a decline in crude oil prices. Crude oil prices may remain volatile, trading around the 9,819, although the decline in international crude prices could provide some relief. GIFT Nifty is trading lower around 23,211, indicating a weak opening for Indian equities, tracking the negative U.S. market cues and cautious domestic sentiment.
Technically, the index continues to trade below its key moving averages, while the RSI remains in the oversold zone, indicating persistent selling pressure, although a short-term pullback cannot be ruled out. The immediate resistance is placed around 23,285-23,330, followed by the crucial 23,500-23,600 zone. On the downside, 23,100-23,070 is the key support area; a decisive break below this zone could drag Nifty towards 23,000 and lower levels. If the index sustains above 23,330, a recovery towards 23,500 may be possible, but the upside could face selling pressure. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious to negative, with a sell-on-rise approach likely to dominate until Nifty reclaims and sustains above 23,600.

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct.

The Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate hike, taking the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4%, marks a renewed shift towards tighter monetary conditions as inflation remains elevated. The Fed has also highlighted resilient domestic spending, strong productivity and robust capital investment, suggesting that the U.S. economy currently has sufficient strength to absorb higher rates.

For the global economy, the immediate impact is likely to be higher-for-longer expectations, keeping U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar firm and putting pressure on risk assets, particularly high-valuation equities and emerging markets. The key market trigger now will be the Fed's guidance on the possibility of further hikes rather than the 25-basis-point move itself.

For India, the combination of higher U.S. yields, a stronger dollar and crude oil above $100 a barrel remains a challenging mix. The rupee could remain under pressure, while domestic bond yields may stay elevated and foreign portfolio flows could remain volatile.
In the near term, equity markets may remain volatile, with rate-sensitive and richly valued segments facing pressure. Over the short term, however, if oil prices stabilise and the Fed signals a limited tightening cycle, markets could gradually shift focus back to domestic earnings and growth.

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 snapped a two-session losing streak on Wednesday, gaining 99 points, or 0.43%, to close at 23,217.60, recovering after touching a five-month low in the previous session amid elevated crude prices and bond yields. FMCG, Realty and PSU Banks led the rebound, supported by some moderation in oil prices ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision.

Overnight, however, global sentiment turned cautious after the Fed delivered its first rate hike in three years, taking the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. A hawkish tone on inflation weighed on Wall Street, with the Dow falling 631 points, or 1.21%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.45%. The Nasdaq was relatively resilient, edging down just 0.01%, as technology stocks outperformed financials.

Asian markets are opening on a firmer note, with the Nikkei and Kospi tracking the Nasdaq's relative resilience. Brent crude has eased around 1% to $104.48 a barrel after this week's sharp spike, although supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz remain a key concern for India given the potential impact on the import bill. GIFT Nifty, around 23,224.5, indicates a mildly weaker opening, suggesting a gap-down of nearly 40 points from Wednesday's close.

From a technical perspective, the Nifty's bias remains cautiously bearish below 23,350. Immediate support is placed at 23,100, and a decisive break below this level could drag the index towards 22,800. On the upside, 23,350 and 23,500 remain key resistance levels. Any further moderation in crude prices or a less hawkish tone from the Fed could support the recovery and improve near-term sentiment

Rajagopal Menon, Vice President, WazirX

"The Federal Reserve's plan of hiking rates could shift the immediate focus for crypto investors. A rate hike means the cost of capital would increase and could put short-term pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin. However, the market reaction will also heavily depend on where the short term interest rates are headed based on the quarterly chart published by Fed. In addition to that, the inflation outlook will be key for global retail investors, as higher rates can strengthen the dollar and make traditional yield-bearing assets relatively more attractive, potentially reducing near-term appetite for crypto. For India, the impact would largely come through global liquidity, dollar strength and risk sentiment .

Nischal Shetty, founder, WazirX

"Stronger US retail sales and elevated inflation pressures reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy, while the Fed's 25 bps rate hike and Treasury yields near 5% kept global liquidity constrained. A stronger dollar may weigh on near-term crypto risk appetite, while oil above $100 adds to inflation concerns and limits room for policy easing. However, resilient US demand reduces recession fears, leaving the crypto outlook balanced between tighter liquidity and continued underlying risk-asset demand.
Bitcoin trades near $76,460 in a mildly constructive daily structure, with RSI around 52 and the broader signal on Buy. Immediate support lies near $75,800-$76,200, while $76,900-$77,100 forms resistance. Holding support could preserve momentum; losing it may expose the secondary $73,600-$74,000 zone.
Ethereum trades near $2,431 in a neutral-to-constructive daily structure. Immediate support sits around $2,380-$2,410, while $2,450-$2,465 is the first resistance zone, followed by the psychological $2,500 level. Holding support could sustain recovery momentum, while futures positioning may remain sensitive to any sustained move above nearby resistance.
ZEC trades near $1,362 with a strong daily structure and RSI around 69. Immediate support lies near $1,275-$1,285, while $1,400 is the key psychological resistance. Holding support could preserve momentum, while a break below may shift focus toward $1,180-$1,185.
Asian markets were broadly positive, with the Nikkei, Shanghai, Sensex, KOSPI and Singapore gaining, while the Hang Seng lagged. In the US markets, the Dow and S&P 500 declined, and the VIX rose, signaling slightly risk-off sentiment. Gold and oil also eased, reducing some inflation pressure at the margin. For crypto, the mixed setup suggests cautious but not defensive positioning, with improving Asian risk appetite partly offsetting weaker US equity momentum.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $450.3 million in net outflows, their largest daily exit since June 25, while Ethereum ETFs saw $141 million in outflows, led by BlackRock's ETHA. Bitcoin still traded near $75,600-$76,000, while ETH held around $2,400, showing that ETF flows do not translate one-for-one into price moves. Broader liquidity, derivatives positioning, spot demand, and macro sentiment can absorb institutional selling, keeping price action relatively resilient despite sizable fund withdrawals."

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin's ability to defend $75,000 is more important than its 0.88% rise over the past 24 hours. The asset absorbed a failed US crypto Bill and the Federal Reserve's first rate increase since 2023. And yet, BTC recovered to around $76,360 by 6.25 am IST on September 17.
The recovery has not produced a technical breakout, with Bitcoin still below the $76,700 True Market Mean identified by Glassnode. A sustained close above $76,700 could restore the trading range that broke on September 15, while $80,400-$80,500 is the next meaningful barrier.

The larger supply concentration lies between $83,000 and $86,000, where approximately 1.07 million BTC was previously acquired. The US spot-Bitcoin ETF complex also approaches break-even near $86,000, which makes this band the principal test for any recovery.

On the downside, $75,000 is the immediate level to defend after Bitcoin touched a 24-hour low of $74,995.52. The stronger support zone sits between $71,300 and $72,000, combining the short-term-holder cost basis with the max-pain level for the September 25 options expiry.
The on-chain picture shows resilience without strong new demand, as realised capitalisation ended a 27-day run of increases on September 15. Around 66.2% of Bitcoin supply remains in profit, while exchange balances are lower than they were 30 days ago. Stablecoin capitalisation is near $301 billion, but it remains roughly 4% below its April 2026 peak.

ETF flows offer the clearest explanation for why Bitcoin has struggled to reclaim $80,000. US spot-Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $770 million between September 1 and 4, but recorded a net $753.2 million outflow between September 8 and 15.

The largest daily withdrawal in this period was $450.4 million on September 15, immediately before the US Fed decision. A further $99.1 million of outflows had been reported for September 16, although the figure remained incomplete because data for BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC were unavailable. The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4% on September 16. Its median projection now places the policy rate at 4.1% by end-2026, indicating that another 25-basis-point increase remains possible.

The Fed also raised its 2026 PCE-inflation projection to 3.7% and its core-PCE estimate to 3.4%. The next major test arrives on September 30, when the August PCE report and the third estimate of Q2 GDP are scheduled for release.

The September employment report on October 2 and CPI on October 14 will shape expectations before the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28. Softer inflation or employment figures could weaken the case for a second 25-basis-point increase, while an upside inflation surprise would place renewed pressure on Bitcoin.

Large altcoins recovered on September 17, although the rebound was not strong enough to signal a broader rotation away from Bitcoin. Ethereum traded near $2,421, up 0.80%, while BNB rose 1.73% to approximately $727. XRP gained 0.85% to around $1.30, while Solana advanced 1.76% to nearly $98.84. TRON rose 0.75% to $0.3356, but Bitcoin dominance remained close to 58.9% and CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index stood at only 34.

The market has shown that buyers are prepared to defend $75,000, even after two substantial shocks within 48 hours. The recovery will become more credible only if Bitcoin closes above $76,700, ETF flows return to positive territory, and the asset begins to challenge $80,500.
Until those 3 conditions are met, Bitcoin remains in a recovery attempt rather than a confirmed uptrend. A failure to hold $75,000 would expose $71,300-$72,000, while a break above $86,000 would remove the largest identifiable block of overhead supply.

Our advice: Investors should use staggered allocations until Bitcoin sustains a close above $76,700, rather than treating the rebound from $75,000 as a confirmed uptrend. Traders should keep leverage low and define exits in advance, as a break below $75,000 could expose the $71,300-$72,000 support zone.