Small merchants receiving up to Rs 1 lakh a month through UPI QR payments will continue to operate under zero MDR, as per the new framework. Read full report here

Vikaas M Sachdeva, CEO BitDelta India

Bitcoin's move toward the mid-$70,000 range, alongside declines in Ethereum, Solana, XRP and other major tokens, reflects a broader shift in market sentiment. The pullback came as expectations around the U.S. digital-asset regulatory framework were reassessed following the outcome of the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act, while markets were simultaneously positioning for the Federal Reserve's policy decision. Rising Treasury yields and a more cautious risk tone across broader markets added to the pressure on digital assets and related equities.

Virtual digital assets are increasingly responding to the same forces that shape other risk markets, liquidity, monetary policy expectations and the path of regulatory clarity. Looking ahead, the policy process in the U.S. is likely to take more time, and near-term price action can remain sensitive while those signals stay mixed. Periods like these often test conviction, but they also reinforce why regulatory clarity, robust market infrastructure and disciplined participation remain central to the next phase of the category.

Parth Nyati, CEO, Swastika Investmart 

The proposed 0.02% Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on UPI payments linked to capital-market transactions is unlikely to materially change the cost of investing for most retail investors, but it could have a more noticeable impact on brokers-particularly discount and zero-brokerage platforms that operate on thin margins. The new framework covers payments related to mutual funds, securities, stockbrokers and dealers, with the charge capped at Rs 300 per transaction.
For investors, the immediate impact should be limited because the MDR is a charge within the payment ecosystem rather than a direct customer fee. The government has said banks should ensure that merchants do not pass the MDR on to customers, while UPI apps are prohibited from imposing additional platform or hidden charges. At 0.02%, a Rs 1 lakh investment would translate into an MDR of just Rs 20, illustrating the relatively small absolute cost for a typical transaction.
The bigger issue could be broker economics. Discount brokers have built their proposition around low or zero brokerage, relying on scale, ancillary revenues and tight operating costs. If brokers have to absorb MDR on every UPI pay-in, the cumulative cost could become meaningful, particularly for active and intraday traders who make frequent fund transfers. Recent market commentary also suggests that the impact could be more visible for brokers handling high-frequency UPI pay-ins rather than long-term investors.
Overall, the 0.02% rate appears small from an individual investor's perspective, but its cumulative effect could matter for high-volume brokers. The key question will be whether brokers absorb the cost to preserve their low-cost positioning or gradually recover it through other revenue streams. For retail investors, the direct impact is likely to remain limited initially, but the policy could subtly reshape how discount brokers structure their pricing and payment ecosystem.

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Rohit Mahajan, Founder & CEO, Plutos ONE - Payments Infrastructure Fintech

"India's digital payments ecosystem is entering its next era. With around 95% of P2M transactions below Rs 2,000, the proposed MDR framework continues to protect everyday digital payments and small merchants, while P2P transactions remain outside the framework. At the same time, UPI transactions could grow nearly 3X over the next four years, creating an enormous need for investment in payment infrastructure.

The next decade will be about building the next level of payment infrastructure-more resilient, intelligent, scalable and secure. For this to happen, fintechs and ecosystem players need sustainable business models that allow them to recover infrastructure costs and continuously invest in technology and innovation. This is not just about MDR; it is about ensuring that India has the infrastructure capacity to support the next phase of its digital payments growth."

Gaurav Garg, Head - Research, Lemonn

Gold and silver are gaining ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision, supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of a rate hike already priced in, while the Fed's forward guidance will decide the next move in yields, the dollar and precious metals. Crude is easing after an unexpected rise in U.S. inventories, although Middle East supply disruptions continue to keep prices elevated. For India, the rupee is stable near 95.91 with RBI support, but elevated crude remains an inflationary risk, while any dovish Fed signal could further support gold and silver.

When prices keep rising, investors can start treating gold as a momentum trade rather than as one part of a diversified portfolio. Read full report here

Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst - Commodities, Axis Direct

Gold prices fell on Tuesday, slipping below $4,300 an ounce as rising oil prices intensified inflation concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve's closely watched monetary policy decision this week. The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps, marking its first increase in around three years as policymakers seek to contain inflationary pressures. WTI Crude Oil prices climbed more than 3%, touching $106 after Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) suspended operations at three oil fields, fueling concerns over supply disruptions amid ongoing issues with a key Saudi pipeline.

Gaurav Udani, Founder - Thincredblu 

Nifty is expected to open flat around 23,120, close to yesterday's closing level. After the recent weakness, the overall bias remains cautious, and the market needs to reclaim higher levels to improve sentiment. The immediate support is around 23,000-23,100, while 23,400-23,600 remains the key resistance zone.

For now, the view remains sell on rise, as long as Nifty continues to trade below 23,600. Any recovery towards the resistance zone can see selling pressure, while a sustained move above 23,600 would indicate a change in the near-term trend and warrant a more positive approach.

The focus today will be on whether the index can hold the 23,000-23,100 zone. A break below this support can lead to further weakness, while holding it could result in a range-bound session with intermittent recovery.

Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder & CEO, Pi42

"Crypto markets are witnessing a broad risk-off move, with Bitcoin slipping towards the $76,000 level after falling nearly 3%, while the pressure has been sharper across major altcoins. Ethereum is trading around $2,400, Solana near $97 and XRP around $1.30, with XRP emerging as one of the biggest laggards in the current correction. The immediate trigger has been the failure of the US Senate to advance the Clarity Act, which has renewed concerns around the pace of regulatory clarity for digital assets. At the same time, investors are approaching the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision cautiously, adding another layer of uncertainty for risk assets."

"For Bitcoin, the $74,000-$76,000 range will be important to watch in the near term. Holding this zone could allow the market to consolidate and attempt a recovery towards $78,000-$80,000, while a decisive break below it could invite further selling pressure. The sharper decline in altcoins also suggests that traders are reducing risk rather than exiting crypto uniformly, with capital likely to remain concentrated in larger assets until sentiment improves. With both monetary policy and regulatory developments driving the market, volatility is likely to remain elevated in the near term, and traders should watch whether Bitcoin can stabilise before expecting a broader recovery across altcoins."

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Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange

Crypto markets remain volatile after a sharp deleveraging move, with Bitcoin around $75,900 and Ethereum near $2,400. More than $600 million in leveraged positions were liquidated over 24 hours. Rising Treasury yields and oil prices were already pressuring markets before the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate, adding to the sell-off. Bitcoin fell more than 5%, while crypto-linked equities also declined.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin tested its 200 EMA near $75,300 before recovering, while Ethereum briefly fell below its 200 EMA around $2,356 before moving back above $2,400. Both assets have reacted from the 200 EMA, but the rebound does not yet confirm a reversal.
For Bitcoin, $77,000-$77,600 is the recovery zone. A sustained reclaim could improve momentum, while a 4-hour break below the 200 EMA could expose $74,000-$75,000. Ethereum needs to recover $2,455-$2,480, with $2,350-$2,360 as downside support.
The Federal Reserve is the next catalyst. With a 25-basis-point hike largely priced in, traders will focus on Fed guidance and the projected rate path rather than the rate decision itself.

BTC briefly slipped below $75K before recovering above $76K, as rising bond yields, tighter monetary policy expectations and regulatory uncertainty pressured crypto markets. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% for the first time since 2023, while markets increasingly priced in a 25 bps Fed rate hike. Sentiment weakened further after the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, delaying hopes for a comprehensive crypto regulatory framework. The sell-off triggered nearly $100 million in long liquidations, while the Fear & Greed Index fell from 81 to 67. Traders are now watching $75K-$76K as key support.

Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex

Bitcoin has slipped below $75,000, marking a September low after the CLARITY Act failed its Senate cloture vote 50-49, effectively ending its chances of becoming law this year. The setback landed on top of a historic global bond selloff, with the US 10-year Treasury yield hitting its highest since 2007. Meanwhile, today's Fed decision, with 90% odds of a rate hike, and Friday's Bank of Japan meeting further add to the pressure. Sentiment has also cooled, with Fear & Greed falling from 81 to 67. However, rising realized cap and 30 straight days of short-term holders in profit offer some support. Key levels to watch now are the support near $75,000-$76,000 and resistance at $79,500-$80,400.

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Gold fell to a six-week low below $4,300/oz as markets positioned for today's Fed decision, widely expected to deliver the first US rate hike in roughly three years. The 10-year Treasury yield, at its highest since 2007, is adding pressure to precious metals. Silver followed, slipping below $64/oz to a six-week low. On the other hand, Brent crude climbed above $107/barrel, its highest in more than four months, after Saudi Arabia cancelled European shipments with its key pipeline still offline. The rupee, near Rs 95.55/$, remains vulnerable to higher oil costs, although record RBI reserves of $740.8 billion provide greater room to support the currency.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin is trading around $75,568, with the market focused on the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting. BTC has slipped below the $76,000 area after failing to sustain the recent recovery above $80,000. Immediate support is around $75,000-$76,000, followed by $71,700-$72,000, while $77,000-$78,000 is the first resistance zone. The broader resistance area is $80,000-$82,800.

ETF demand has become more uneven. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $730.8 million on September 3 and $174.6 million on September 4. They then recorded outflows of $46.6 million, $120.2 million, $282.7 million and $13.2 million on September 8-11. A $159.9 million inflow on September 14 provided some relief, according to Farside. September 1-14 flows remained positive overall, but the sequence shows that institutional demand has moderated after the strong early-month inflows.

The on-chain picture is mixed. Large-holder accumulation has stalled, with whale balances broadly flat since February. The recent price move has also been supported by derivatives positioning. This suggests that stronger spot demand is still needed for the recovery to become more durable.

Large-cap altcoins have weakened alongside Bitcoin, with Ethereum around $2,393, BNB near $710, XRP around $1.28, Solana near $97 and TRON around $0.332.

Macro remains the key driver. Markets are pricing roughly a 92.4% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike. The hike is largely priced in, making the Fed's forward guidance the bigger risk. The US 10-year yield has moved above 5%, while Brent crude is around $108 a barrel, keeping inflation and liquidity concerns elevated. The Senate's failure to advance the Clarity Act has added another near-term source of uncertainty for crypto markets.

Our advice: Investors should avoid excessive leverage around the Fed decision. BTC holding $75,000-$76,000 would keep the market above an important support zone, while a sustained break below it could expose the low-$72,000s. On the upside, reclaiming $80,000 and eventually $82,800 would be important for rebuilding momentum.

Rajagopal Menon, Vice President, WazirX

"The bill stalling means that the US regulators could still move ahead through administrative action. That gives businesses a way forward, but less certainty about whether those rules will survive a change in administration. For India, this outcome reinforces the importance of developing a clear domestic framework without any other country setting the tone, as the larger global trend has already indicated that digital assets need defined rules if the next phase of adoption is to be sustainable."

The Thesis
The FOMC's hawkish hold - rates held at 3.50-3.75% with a longer-tightening signal - sent US 10-year yields to 5%, flushing Rs 2,978 Cr of FII money in one session and dropping the Nifty 500 by 1.70%. Within that pressure, signals rotate into USD-earning healthcare IT, food exporters, and domestic credit - each structurally positioned to hold or gain from the dollar-strength and credit dynamics the Fed just locked in. VIX surging 9.28% confirms the market is pricing the risk, not dismissing it.

Where We're Concentrated
Three distinct levers drive the basket: a healthcare IT services pair billing in dollars (the same USD strength behind FII outflows is their tailwind), a rice exporter gaining a pricing edge as supply-chain disruption tightens global food access, and a state-owned refiner with strategic crude procurement insulation that private peers lack in a Saudi pipeline-disrupted market. PSU banking adds domestic credit-cycle conviction running independent of the Fed. The thesis breaks on a sharp rupee reversal - it collapses the IT tailwind - or deteriorating quality in the PSU credit book.

Conviction Picks
Highest Conviction
LT Foods
Indian rice exports gain a pricing edge as supply-chain disruptions tighten global food markets and the rupee stays competitive.
Sagility
US healthcare IT revenue denominated in dollars turns currency tailwind as the Fed's hawkish hold strengthens the greenback.
Indegene
Pharma lifecycle services billed in dollars benefit directly from the same USD-strength dynamic that FII outflows are riding.
MRPL
As a state-owned refiner with strategic crude access, MRPL is better insulated than private peers in a disrupted supply chain.
Bank of Maharashtra
Domestic credit expansion remains the domestic lever; PSU bank margins hold even as FOMC hawkishness pressures FII appetite.
One Thing to Watch
US 10-year yield at 5% FIIs net sold ₹2,978 Cr yesterday as yields crossed that level - a yield that refuses to retreat keeps the outflow clock running and the rate-sensitive flank of this portfolio under pressure; a sustained close below 4.90% is the signal this selloff is finding a floor.

Ankita Pathak, Head - Global Investments, Ionic Asset

Macro headwinds remain elevated for equity markets across the world, with commentary from Anthropic's CEO further adding to the risks that the markets are currently facing. The next key catalyst would be the Fed's policy decision on 16th September midnight, with markets largely pricing in a 25-bps rate hike. We believe a hike would provide policy certainty and maintain Fed's credibility. We have not changed our long-term global asset allocation view, maintaining a 70:20:10 allocation across Equities, Commodities and REITs/Fixed Income. An expected BoJ rate hike could limit further upside in the DXY and provide some support to commodities and EM assets. Most of the portfolios have been AI-fied, from EMs to commodities, all are essentially linked to data centres, therefore, we reiterate the importance of building appropriate portfolio diversifiers. While the long-term fundamentals remain intact, macro overhangs have increasingly taken centre stage, with significant movements beneath the headline indices despite relatively stable index levels.

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 opened nearly 180 points higher at 23,576.15 but failed to sustain the early gains, reversing sharply to close at 23,118.60, down 279.50 points or 1.19%. The reversal reflects heightened risk aversion as crude oil prices approached $110 a barrel and the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5%, offsetting early buying in HDFC Bank and technology stocks. IT was a notable exception, with the sector gaining around 2.2%.
Global cues remained challenging, with Wall Street extending its decline overnight. The Dow Jones fell 0.63%, while the Nasdaq declined 0.78%, as the US 10-year yield touched its highest level since 2007 ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision.

Asian markets were mixed and lacked clear direction. Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.24%, despite stronger export data, while South Korea's Kospi gained 0.25%. Brent crude remained elevated near $108 a barrel, keeping concerns over India's import bill, inflation and the rupee's weakness in focus. GIFT Nifty around 23,222 indicates a cautiously positive start, although global risk factors remain a key overhang.
Technically, the undertone remains fragile. The 23,000 mark is the immediate support, and a decisive break below this level could open the way towards 22,800. On the upside, a sustained move above 23,300-23,350 could provide some relief and push the index towards 23,550. With the Federal Reserve's rate decision due later tonight, market volatility is likely to remain elevated. A dovish tone could trigger a relief rally, while a continued hawkish stance may keep pressure on equities.

Nischal Shetty, founder, WazirX

"US Treasury yields remained near multi-year highs, while Brent crude stayed above $108, keeping inflation concerns elevated. Markets continued to price in a near-term Fed rate hike, supporting the dollar and tightening global liquidity. China's industrial production remained resilient, but weak retail sales and investment signaled uneven growth, while softer UK labor data pointed to slowing demand. For crypto, these forces may restrain risk appetite, though resilient underlying demand keeps the broader macro outlook balanced rather than decisively bearish.

Bitcoin trades near $75,547 in a neutral-to-consolidative daily structure, with RSI near 48, indicating balanced momentum. Immediate support sits around $73,500-$75,000, while resistance lies near $76,200-$77,300. Holding support could stabilize momentum; a loss may expose $71,900-$73,100, while reclaiming resistance would improve the short-term structure.

Ethereum trades near $2,395 in a neutral daily structure, with RSI near 50, showing balanced momentum. Immediate support lies around $2,375-$2,390, while resistance sits near $2,430-$2,470. The $2,400 level remains psychologically important. Holding support could preserve stability, while sustained strength above resistance would improve the structure toward $2,500.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act failed to advance in the US Senate, falling short of the 60 votes required to move the bill forward. The setback delays comprehensive US crypto market-structure legislation, keeping regulatory attention on the SEC and CFTC and adding another source of near-term policy uncertainty for crypto markets.

Global risk appetite remained cautious. In Asia, the Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai, and Sensex declined, while KOSPI and Singapore posted modest gains. US sentiment was also softer, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq lower and the VIX slightly higher. Gold slipped marginally, while oil eased 0.67% but remained above $105. For crypto, the mixed cross-asset backdrop suggests investors remain selective rather than fully risk-off, supporting continued interest despite macro uncertainty.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $159.9 million in net inflows, led by BlackRock's IBIT at $134.3 million, while Ethereum ETFs attracted about $121 million, with ETHA contributing $80.5 million. Despite steady institutional buying, Bitcoin remained near the mid-$75,000 range and Ethereum around $2,400-$2,480. The muted price response suggests ETF demand is being partly offset by macro uncertainty, profit-taking, derivatives positioning, and broader liquidity conditions, delaying a stronger spot-market reaction."

At the close on Tuesday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,72,11,470.