The Thesis
Nifty 500 slid 1.67% to a multi-month low on Friday as an energy-cost spike and firming global yields drove a rate-fear rotation, and the pressure stayed live into Monday as Brent held above $106 after Trump rejected Iran's roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. DII bought Rs 2,838 Cr against FII selling of Rs 3,694 Cr as India VIX eased 4.18%, favoring names insulated from the import-cost channel.

Where We're Concentrated
Conviction concentrates in pharma (Jubilant Pharmova, Glenmark) and domestic capex-linked materials (Ambuja Cements, Usha Martin), with one export-facing textile name, Welspun Living, rounding out the basket - insulated from the imported-crude cost channel. The thesis breaks if Brent extends through $110 and forces the RBI's hand despite Friday's hold at 5.25%, or if the DII bid offsetting Friday's FII outflow fades.

Conviction Picks
Highest Conviction
Welspun Living
Export-facing home textiles are insulated from the domestic energy-cost squeeze pressuring rate-sensitive sectors.
Jubilant Pharmova
Pharma earnings stay dollar-linked but crude-insensitive, a defensive anchor while Brent holds above $106.
Usha Martin
Industrial wire-rope demand tracks India's own capex cycle, not the imported-oil cost channel under pressure.
Ambuja Cements
Cement rides domestic infra capex, a hedge against the energy-driven margin risk hitting import-heavy names.
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
A second pharma name reinforces the defensive tilt as India VIX eases but crude-driven risk stays live.
One Thing to Watch
Brent above $106 as Hormuz talks collapse Trump's rejection of Iran's seven-day roadmap to reopen the Strait removes the near-term supply-relief case for crude; a sustained move through $110 would pressure the cost-stability case behind the cement and industrials weighting.

Harish Vatnani, Head of Trade, Zebpay

Market Overview
BTC is maintaining a strong bullish structure on the daily chart, but the price action has started showing signs of short-term exhaustion after the sharp rally from the 76,000 to 77,000 region.
The important development on the chart is the transition from the earlier 63,000 to 67,000 accumulation range into the 76,000 to 77,000 range, followed by a strong breakout above the 81,500 to 82,000 resistance zone. This breakout was supported by a noticeable increase in volume, which gives the move more significance.
BTC subsequently accelerated toward approximately $87,000, where the market faced clear selling pressure. Since then, price has pulled back and is currently consolidating around 83,000 to 85,000.
What stands out on the current chart is that BTC has not yet lost the previous breakout zone around 81,500 to 82,000. Therefore, the recent decline from $87K currently looks more like a pullback after a strong expansion rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
The market is now at an important stage where $82,000 support and 85,000 to 87,000 resistance are likely to determine the next meaningful move. 

Outlook
The daily structure remains bullish, but BTC is currently facing resistance around 85,000 to 87,000.
A strong daily breakout above $87,000 with increasing volume could open the path toward $90,000, followed by 95,000.
On the downside, a sustained break below 81,500 to 82,000 could bring 76,000 to 77,500 back into focus. A break below $76,000 would weaken the structure."

Purvang Mashru, Lead Analyst, BitDelta India

Bitcoin slipped 0.4% to $84,028 in the 24 hours ending at 7:00 AM IST on 28 September, while Ethereum fell 0.8% to $2,672. The weakness contrasted with gains in Cardano, Avalanche, Solana, BNB, TRX and Dogecoin.

Cardano led with a 1.8% rise. Avalanche and Solana gained 0.8% and 0.7%, while BNB, TRX and Dogecoin also advanced. XRP declined and Chainlink was flat. The positive breadth prevented a market-wide retreat, but conviction remained limited.

The close carried the clearest warning. Bitcoin finished only 5% above its 24-hour low after trading between $83,975 and $85,043. Ethereum retained 7% of its range. The altcoin resilience therefore looks selective, not yet a decisive broad-market breakout.

The completed 25 September US session recorded $134.5 million of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and $87.0 million into Ether ETFs. Across 21 to 25 September, inflows totalled $2.39 billion and $689.8 million, respectively.

Policy clarity improved. On 25 September, the US SEC published FAQs explaining how federal securities laws apply to crypto assets and transactions. The CFTC clarified tokenized collateral and blockchain recordkeeping on 24 September. Both could support institutional participation going ahead.

Bitcoin support sits at $84,000 and $83,975, with resistance at $84,350 and $84,700. A reclaim of $84,350, Ethereum above $2,670 and strength in Cardano and Solana would improve the setup. A break below $83,975 with narrower altcoin participation would signal broader deterioration as Monday liquidity returns.

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange 

Crypto markets have come under renewed selling pressure, with Bitcoin slipping toward $83,500 and Ethereum trading near $2,655. 

The pullback appears to reflect a combination of elevated U.S. Treasury yields, profit-taking after BTC's recent run above $87,000, cooling ETF inflow momentum and post-expiry positioning rather than a single fresh crypto-specific shock. 

Bitcoin's rejection around $85,000 triggered another test of the $83,300-$83,500 support region, while leveraged positioning has added to downside pressure. The rise in Bitcoin implied volatility is also notable, signalling that traders are pricing in greater near-term price uncertainty. 

Despite the pullback, institutional demand remains supportive, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording roughly $2.4 billion of net inflows last week. 

Technically, a sustained break below $83,300 could expose $82,000-$82,500, while a recovery above $84,800-$85,000 would be needed to improve near-term momentum. 

Ethereum is showing comparatively greater weakness after losing the $2,667 region, putting $2,645-$2,650 in focus as immediate support.

Bitcoin is hovering around $84,000 after last week's $2.4 billion in ETF inflows, the strongest weekly inflow since October 2025. BTC is also on track for its second-best Q3 on record, up roughly 43-44%, breaking a two-quarter losing streak. Additionally, about 31,800 BTC also moved off exchanges last week, pointing to accumulation. However, on-chain data shows rising correction risk, with unrealized profit margins at a 20-month high. Macro risks remain, with higher Treasury and mortgage rates ahead of key jobs and PCE data. A weekly close above May's high would support a Q4 uptrend, while falling below it could indicate a false breakout leading to a seasonal pullback said Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex.

Daily Quote from CoinSwitch

BTC is trading around $84.6K, remaining resilient despite elevated Treasury yields and continued concerns around tighter monetary policy. The key fundamental support is sustained institutional demand, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting roughly $2.39 billion last week, their strongest weekly inflows since October 2025. This suggests that large investors are continuing to accumulate even as macro conditions remain restrictive. At the same time, higher yields and a stronger dollar are limiting broader risk appetite, keeping BTC below the $87K-$90K resistance zone. With ETF demand absorbing available supply, the underlying setup remains constructive, while $82K remains the key downside support said CoinSwitch Markets Desk.

Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder & CEO, Pi42

"Bitcoin's current consolidation is becoming a test of how much geopolitical uncertainty the market can absorb without disrupting the broader recovery. After briefly moving above $85,000, Bitcoin has slipped back below $84,000 as uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran situation persists. What stands out, however, is that the pullback remains relatively contained, suggesting that investors are not aggressively unwinding positions despite the headlines.

The $84,800 level is now particularly important. A sustained move above this zone would signal that Bitcoin has absorbed the recent selling pressure and could open the path toward $90,000. At the same time, the decline in open interest over the past week indicates that some leverage is being removed from the market. That can actually create a healthier setup for the next move, as the market becomes less dependent on leveraged positioning.

The broader market is showing a similar pattern of selective strength. Ethereum is holding around $2,700, while XRP remains near $1.50 and Dogecoin has managed to stay marginally positive even as Bitcoin and Ethereum softened. This suggests that capital is not moving uniformly across crypto, with individual assets responding differently to the same macro and geopolitical backdrop.

The bigger signal for Bitcoin will be whether it can turn $84,800 from resistance into support. If that happens while open interest remains controlled and geopolitical uncertainty does not escalate further, the market could start positioning for the next leg toward $90,000. The important shift here is that Bitcoin is increasingly demonstrating an ability to consolidate through external shocks rather than requiring a completely risk-free macro environment to move higher." 

Hemang Gor, Senior Research Analyst - Derivatives & Technical Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 settled at 23,140.50, higher by 77.40 points or 0.34% on Friday, as stocks retraced part of Thursday's fall. However, this technical bounce was overshadowed by a grim milestone: both benchmark indices officially recorded their seventh consecutive week of decline-the longest weekly losing streak since the COVID-19 crash of early 2020. Overnight, the Dow rose 0.93%, the S&P 500 gained 0.51%, and the Nasdaq added 0.48%, buoyed by a crude-oil retreat that eased inflation fears. The MOVE Index (the "VIX" of bonds) surged almost 20% in last week, signalling Treasury volatility that historically constrains FII risk appetite for emerging-market allocations.

GIFT Nifty trading at 23,105 suggests a negative open for the Indian Benchmark index.

Technically, the bias is neutral-to-cautious, and the undertone stays subdued as long as the index trades below 23,300. Immediate support lies at 23,000, and a decisive break would expose 22,800. With the September series expiring Tuesday, volatility could remain elevated. However, any progress on Hormuz talks could ease crude and help the index recover towards 23,300-23,450.

Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX

"Inflation pressures eased slightly as Brent retreated toward $104, while a softer dollar and stronger yen improved conditions for dollar-priced assets, including crypto. Treasury yields remained elevated, and markets priced a 65% chance of an October Fed hike, keeping liquidity expectations cautious. With PMI, employment and export data unchanged over the weekend, traders looked ahead to Core PCE and labor releases. Overall, improving commodity and currency signals support crypto risk appetite, although rate expectations continue to limit a liquidity expansion.

Bitcoin trades near $83,775 in a constructive but consolidating daily structure, with RSI at 62. Immediate support lies around $83,300 - $83,500, while $84,000 - $84,100 forms resistance. Holding support could preserve buyer control; clearing resistance may restore momentum, while a breakdown would shift attention to the secondary $81,100 - $81,600 support zone in the near term.

Ethereum trades near $2,658 in a constructive but range-bound daily setup. Immediate support sits around $2,600 - $2,620, while $2,675 - $2,690 forms resistance before the psychological $2,700 level. Holding support may sustain recovery interest, but Futures traders should assess volume, open interest, and funding before treating a resistance test as confirmation of strength.

Quant trades near $258 after a pullback, while moving averages remain bullish. RSI near 87 signals stretched momentum. Support lies at $250 - $253, with $213 - $214 secondary. Holding $250 could stabilize the structure; losing it may deepen consolidation, while $275 - $285 remains resistance.

US markets ended higher, with the Dow gaining 0.93%, the S&P 500 rising 0.51% and the Nasdaq adding 0.48%. The VIX fell 5.11%, showing calmer market sentiment. Asian equities were mixed, as gains in the Hang Seng, Sensex and Singapore offset declines in the KOSPI and Shanghai. Gold dropped 1.76%, while oil rose 1.19%. Stronger US equities and lower volatility favor crypto participation, although uneven Asian trading and firmer oil may keep capital rotation selective across global markets.

During the latest completed US trading session on September 25, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $134.5 million in net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs added $86.95 million. Weekly inflows reached about $2.39 billion for Bitcoin and $690 million for Ethereum. Despite this institutional buying, Bitcoin eased to $83,731 and Ether to $2,658. ETF demand supports underlying liquidity, but profit-taking, weekend trading conditions, exchange selling, macro uncertainty, and derivatives positioning can absorb fresh capital and delay an immediate price response across markets."

Families should look at how the policy would respond during an actual medical emergency, rather than comparing policies only on price. Read full report here

At the close on Friday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex Companies stood at Rs 4,82,16,004.