Which Way Will AIADMK Rebels Turn? Trust Vote For Vijay Is EPS Battleground

The trust vote in Tamil Nadu for actor-turned-politician Chief Minister Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam or TVK -- due shortly -- is expected to be as much of a thriller as the two-year-old party's journey to this day. The government is expected to survive the day, even if with a paper-thin majority.

The majority mark in the Tamil Nadu assembly is 118 and Vijay's TVK currently has 107 MLAs, as Vijay resigned one of the two seats he contested from. 

TVK ally Congress has five MLAs and the remaining eight come from DMK allies who provide outside support --  CPI, CPM, IUML and the VCK.

Read: Vijay Appoints Astrologer His Political Adviser, "Unacceptable," Say Allies

There is a question mark against the name of one MLA -- Srinivasa Sethupathi  -- whose participation in the trust vote was barred by the Madras High Court after his DMK rival challenged his single-vote defeat.

The matter is now in the Supreme Court, which will hear the TVK leader's petition today. A negative verdict by the court will pull down Vijay's number by one. Still the party will have one more than the majority mark.

The unexpected element in the mix is the support offered to Vijay by 30 rebel MLAs of the AIADMK. Today's floor test is expected to be as much about the future of Vijay's TVK as the future of AIADMK, a decades-old Dravidian party founded by another actor-turned-politician, MG Ramachandran.

Technically, the rebels cannot vote for Vijay, since they are still part of the party headed by E Palaniswami. But in absence of a party whip, they can abstain from the trust vote, which will bring down the number of MLAs present and voting and so help Vijay.

While ostensibly, the AIADMK MLAs -- whom Vijay met today -- promised to support his government, this sideshow is about wresting the post of the legislature party chief from Palaniswami. 

Read: Edappadi Palaniswami, And The End Of His 'I, Me, Myself' Politics

The MLAs expect to have more heft if they can control the legislature party. Later, if Palaniswami can be removed as the party chief, the AIADMK -- which has been out of power for five years -- can extend support to Vijay and join the government. 

The rebel MLAs have accused Palaniswami of seeking a tie-up with arch-rival DMK of MK Stalin and said it was a betrayal of the party's ideology - an allegation both Palaniswami and the DMK have denied.  

For now, while the government of Vijay is expected to win the trust vote, the surrounding narratives are stealing the limelight.