Analysis | Rahul Gandhi's Revival vs Akhilesh Yadav's Leverage: Inside the Samajwadi-Congress Tug of War

Friction between allies, not sniping between political rivals, is fuelling the current churn in Uttar Pradesh's politics. The state is five months away from a make-or-break Assembly election.

In a standout event on Thursday, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, an ally of Rahul Gandhi and the Congress, kick-started a 'rath yatra' - not from a BJP or Samajwadi Party stronghold. He chose Rae Bareilly, the oldest Congress bastion in India. He met MLAs and victims of a recent clash between Samajwadi Party and ABVP workers. In the next few days, he is expected to visit the homes of people who have been victims of police or state administration crackdowns.

This political push by Akhilesh Yadav is rooted in the fact that in the 2022 Assembly polls, despite having no pact with the Congress, the Samajwadi Party had won four of the Assembly segments in Rae Bareilly, the Gandhi family citadel.

That is why the starting point of the PDA yatra is being seen not as an effort to strengthen the alliance's fortunes but as an exercise to signal to the Congress that it is the Samajwadi Party that is in pole position in the state and even in Rae Bareilly.

The show of strength can thus be interpreted as Yadav's muscle-flexing before he sits down with Rahul Gandhi for a seat-sharing formula.

Akhilesh Yadav launched PDA yatra from Rae Bareilly on Thursday

Historically, Akhilesh Yadav, despite his party's strength in UP, has not been an aggressive ally. But this time, he has been forced to introduce subtle aggression.

Post the Congress's successful outing at Jantar Mantar and Rahul Gandhi's engagements with Gen Z and young voters, the Congress is buzzing with the assessment that Gandhi seems to have entered a political pivot season.

They point out that of late, without jettisoning the macro, overarching political strategies of uniting India with the 'Bharat Jodo' campaign, protecting the Constitution with 'Samvidhan Bachao' and battling for the socially backward with the 'caste census' demand, a tweak involving a sharper focus has silently been added.

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Ask any Congress leader and they will say that the political top is not forcing the issues down. Instead, its political face is being seen on the ground with issues closer to the public nerve to construct a political narrative.

The test for Rahul Gandhi's new, relatively consistent "smash past the grand templates" political pushes and the assessment of his party men may arrive later. But his outings have visibly given wind to the sails of party cadres and leaders across the length and breadth of the party. Even in regions where the Congress piggy-rides on strong allies, there is a growing "feel-good factor" among cadres.

Congress is buoyed by uptick in Rahul Gandhi's popularity 

This visible self-confidence has already impacted the build-up for seat-sharing between the Congress and its ally Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. There is unanimity that the top two must ally and work out a seat-sharing formula for UP's 403 seats. Serious talks are likely to begin in early October.

Currently, both parties are officially carrying out individual strengths and weaknesses math for each constituency to build their bargaining pitches.

But armed with new-found confidence, which may be a shade premature, the Congress started flexing its muscles about a month ago.

State Congress leaders in UP began publicly urging the Samajwadi Party not to delay candidate selection and voiced demands for a respectable or equal share of seats for the "rejuvenated Congress".

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Congress MP from Saharanpur, Imran Masood, commented on Monday: "If an alliance is to be formed, it should be finalised; otherwise, we must proceed with our own preparations. The political climate, not just here but across the country, is clear that a fight against the BJP can only be waged with the Congress; only the Congress can take them on."

He added: "Congress and SP could forget winning the elections if they failed to decide on the pact soon. It may sound harsh, but the SP is delaying clarity for reasons best known to them. We Congressmen can't go to elections with that kind of confusion."

The AICC in-charge of UP, Rajendra Pal Gautam, had earlier delivered a veiled demand by saying that the Congress, though open to negotiations, wanted an equal share.

State Congress chief Ajay Rai went a step further to threaten the SP, saying, "Rahul Gandhi will take a final decision, but if there is disagreement with the SP, we are ready to contest all seats in the state."

Rahul Gandhi at 'Chhatron Ki Goonj' event in Prayagraj

The Congress stance reeks of amnesia, as in 2017 and 2024 when the two allied, it was the Congress which was the slower partner.

This public posturing has incensed the Samajwadi Party leadership. Insiders in both parties indicate that a period of tough bargaining lies ahead.

The Samajwadi Party has already set a baseline by indicating that it would contest a minimum of 328 seats and leave close to 75 for the Congress. SP leaders say anything more will be way beyond the Congress's calibre.

This formula is based on simple back-of-the-envelope math.

In UP, 6 Lok Sabha seats won by Congress in 2024 translate to 30-odd Assembly seats, and the 17 Lok Sabha seats contested by it make up 85 Assembly seats.

The SP is not going to make negotiations easy for the Congress. Sources say it has already finalised candidates for 150-odd seats. Of these, 100 of the 111 sitting MLAs are likely to be repeated and there are 45-odd new faces. And all this has been done without consulting the Congress.

"The Congress cadre is still in disarray. The party lacks the support of a large caste block. Without the SP, even the Muslims won't back the party," claimed a senior Akhilesh aide.

The Congress is trying to reduce this "weak organisation" deficiency before it sits on the negotiation table with the SP. On Rahul Gandhi's orders, it started a 'Sangathan Srijan Abhiyan' or organisation restoration campaign. Party observers were sent to 75 districts and brought back reports from districts, blocks and villages. These are being used to make organisational appointments and to pick district presidents.

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Rajendra Pal Gautam has officially stated that by September 24 teams will be ready and after that seat-sharing talks will start.

A senior Samajwadi Party leader mockingly said: "They are creating an organisation just before negotiations for seats. How politically effective can people appointed in September be? We know that names of office bearers of each district are being cleared in minutes."

A Samajwadi Party leader in Kannauj said: "Recently they had a 'Srijan Abhiyan' meeting in Kannauj. Only 30-odd people were there to participate."

Unfazed, the Congress is aiming high. Currently, it is staking claim for nothing less than 135-150 seats. A senior Congress leader said: "There are 126 seats in UP which the Samajwadi Party has not won in the last three Assembly polls. Those can be given to the Congress. Then in Eastern and Western UP and Bundelkhand, the Congress is better placed than the SP."

The Congress argues that the state's Dalit voters need a signal. "SC voters will vote for the SP only if the Congress is given a healthy share of seats in UP. Otherwise, they will remain wary of the SP given the history of animosity between the Yadavs and Dalits," said a Congress leader who will be part of the seat negotiations.

The Congress's Dalit argument has logic.

Then there is the leadership factor which can impact seat-sharing. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Samajwadi Party was the dominant player but the political focus was on Rahul Gandhi. In the 2027 UP polls, despite the improved perception about Rahul Gandhi, the campaign will be constructed around Akhilesh Yadav.

In a nutshell, the Congress will face three key reasons why the SP will be reluctant to be benevolent in seat-sharing, which could mean that the 2027 pact will be different from 2017 and the Congress may not get 106 seats this time.

One, Akhilesh Yadav needs to give a decent chunk of seats to backwards, Muslims and tribals to provide credibility to his PDA plank.

Two, if he hands over too many seats to the Congress, those aspiring for tickets in his party may enter the fray as rebels, especially from his core vote bank - the Yadavs.

In 2017, the SP and the Congress failed to strike a deal on 8-9 seats. Both fielded candidates and suffered losses.

Three, the Samajwadi Party needs the Congress for consolidation of the anti-BJP vote but it also doesn't want the Congress to score a major revival. If the Congress re-emerges as a player, it will end up threatening the space of its ally. The two parties are also expected to witness a serious tug of war over 25-odd seats where both claim to enjoy decent support.

Sources say to avoid friction, both parties may revisit 2017 when the two parties had fielded Congress nominees on the Samajwadi Party symbol in five seats. Two of the five had won.

However, despite the upbeat mood in the Congress, its two-seat tally in the 2022 Assembly poll will come to haunt it. Its six-seat harvest in 2024 was entirely because of the votes the SP brought.

This reduces its bargaining power at the negotiation table.

Still, the Congress is preparing to argue that in 2017 it ceded more seats to the SP as Akhilesh was then the outgoing CM, and this time the Congress is well placed to bring anti-BJP votes to the alliance.

The touch of irony in this shouldn't be missed. The Congress feels it stands on the verge of a revival of sorts in the crucial state. It is in alliance with the SP and RJD in India's two hugely consequential states - UP and Bihar. In both states, it has been an insignificant player since 1989-90. And its revival depends on the very parties that decimated its base almost three decades ago.

So, its comeback hinges on how well it negotiates the political future with Akhilesh and Tejashwi, the sons of Congress's one-time nemesis - Mulayam Singh Yadav and Lalu Yadav.

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Congress Keen And Buoyant

Speak to any Congress leader in Uttar Pradesh and unanimity emerges on the need for allying with the SP. There is desperation for recovery. But unlike the mood in the party before the 2017 "UP ke ladke" alliance steered by political strategist Prashant Kishor and the successful 2024 tie-up for the Lok Sabha election, there is a new spin operating.

"We need an alliance with the Samajwadi Party in UP. We are small in footprint and short on ground-level cadres. But the hard fact is that the SP needs the alliance a little more than us," said a senior UP Congress leader.

The buoyancy comes from a few assessments.

One, that Rahul Gandhi has grown in perception among crucial vote segments like Dalits and Muslims. The leaders are citing reasons for these upticks. For example, Rahul Gandhi's Gen Z push through the dharna in Delhi, forcing Delhi Police to file an FIR in the case pertaining to pellet gun injuries suffered by a student in the Jantar Mantar police crackdown. The "smash the patriarchy" slogan and Manusmriti mention at the 'Chhatron Ki Goonj' event in Pune or the demand for an FIR in the alleged purification incident in Haldwani had women and Dalit voters in sight.

Next, he followed up party matriarch Sonia Gandhi's objection to the unabridged version of 'Vande Mataram' at the flag hoisting at the Congress headquarters on Independence Day. The CWC later pledged to play only the first two stanzas. The signal was to minority voters.

This has, at least, sent out the signal that the Congress is seriously targeting a larger vote catchment area and can bring Dalits and a slice of upper-caste voters averse to Akhilesh's party.

Second, the Congress knows it has not much to lose in UP given the odds, while Akhilesh Yadav cannot afford to lose a third straight Assembly battle in the state.

"Akhilesh can't afford yet another defeat in Uttar Pradesh. It will threaten his political future," said another Congress leader.

In 2017, when the Congress and SP allied, the Congress contested 106 seats. Its cadre was virtually comatose. Jat voters in West UP were angry over the Muzaffarnagar riots. Akhilesh was trying to emerge from a "pari-war" (battle for control of the party with his father and uncle). The final straw was the BJP's aggressive polarising campaign claiming the Congress-SP tie-up was a "Muslim alliance". The Congress won only seven seats with a 6.25% vote share.

On February 11, 2019, Rahul Gandhi used the cricket phrase "play on the front foot" to announce that the Congress party would fight aggressively in Uttar Pradesh and aim to form the state government. This was right after his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra was appointed General Secretary in charge of Uttar Pradesh on January 23, 2019. Congress went alone and Akhilesh Yadav chose to ally with BSP's Mayawati. On May 23, 2019, the Congress could win only one seat (Sonia Gandhi from Rae Bareilly) of the 67 it contested. Even Rahul Gandhi, batting on the front foot, lost Amethi to Smriti Irani.

In the 2022 Assembly polls, Congress contested 399 seats on its own and won just 2. Its vote share was an abysmal 2.3%.

By 2024, the BJP didn't have a Balakot-like strike to mobilise votes. It gambled with the "400 paar" slogan. The INDIA bloc grabbed it to build a campaign that the BJP was aiming for a two-thirds majority in Lok Sabha to end reservations for the socially marginalised. With the Congress bringing the promise of Dalit and some upper-caste votes, Akhilesh moved beyond his traditional MY - Muslim and Yadav - core vote. His PDA (Backwards, Dalits and Alpsankhyak or minority) created a new social engineering.

The BJP lost 29 seats compared to 2019. Akhilesh's tally went up to 37 seats with a 33.6% vote share. The Congress moved up from one in 2019 to six with 9.56% votes.

This means compared to 2022, a tie-up with the SP helped the Congress gain 6.3% votes.

At the heart of the Congress's aggression lie two crucial vote banks - the Dalits and Muslims.

In UP, 120-143 seats have over 30-50% Muslim votes. In 2022, the SP won 62 of the 82 seats with the heaviest Muslim concentration. Only 24 Muslim MLAs were elected. But in 2024, when the Congress and SP contested together, 92% of Muslims voted for the alliance. The support of 82% Yadavs propelled the INDIA bloc.

Next, in 2024 with the BSP on the decline, 56% of non-Jatav voters and 25% of Jatavs (Mayawati's caste and core voters) opted for the INDIA bloc. The BSP received 15% of non-Jatavs and 44% Jatav votes.

The BJP took a hit. In 2019, 48% of non-Jatavs had voted for the party as per CSDS data. In 2024, the tally came down to 29%

.The Congress claims that this swing and consolidation for the INDIA bloc was due to its presence in the alliance. Plus, it is presenting itself as a stronger choice for upper-caste voters unhappy with the BJP than the Samajwadi Party.

Benefits Of Alliance With SP

Despite the bluster and aggression, the Congress needs to realise that an alliance with the Samajwadi Party historically brings dividends.

In mid-August, Akhilesh Yadav had stirred a hornet's nest with a remark on his party's past electoral allies. He said: "Hum logon ne chavanni ko rupaiya bana diya, phir bhi chhod ke chale gaye. (We turned 25 paise into a rupee, and yet they left us)."

It was considered an open attack on Rashtriya Lok Dal and Jayant Chaudhary, the BSP and Om Prakash Rajbhar of Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party.

Since the early 1990s, an alliance with the Samajwadi Party has proved crucial for the rise or revival of parties, including the Congress.

In 1991, the BSP was trying to become a political force in UP. It contested 386 seats under Kanshi Ram and Mayawati but won just 12.But in 1993, the BJP was riding a Hindutva wave post Babri mosque demolition. Mulayam Singh Yadav stepped up to unite the anti-BJP and anti-Congress forces. A deal was struck with the BSP and Kanshi Ram. BSP's fortunes changed. Mulayam had given 164 seats to the BSP and from 12 in 1991 the party moved to 67 MLAs in 1993.

26 years later, in 2019, the two parties were back together. Mulayam Singh Yadav shared the stage with Mayawati at a joint rally in Mainpuri in April 2019, slaying a powerful demon from their past.The 2019 results surprised pollsters. The SP contested 37 seats but won just 5, while the BSP won 10 of its 38 seats. This meant an alliance with the SP helped the BSP gain 10 seats compared to the 2014 tally of zero.

In 2022, the RLD as an SP ally contested 33 seats and won 8. In 2017, it had contested 277 seats but won just 1. To send a signal to farm voters, Akhilesh Yadav had given a Rajya Sabha berth to Jayant Chaudhary in July 2022. But by 2024, the RLD had joined the BJP-led NDA.

Ex-BSP leader Babu Singh Kushwaha's Jan Adhikar Party benefited from an alliance with the SP in 2024. After zero seats in 2014 and 2019, he won the Jaunpur Lok Sabha seat.

Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party of Om Prakash Rajbhar tied up with the SP in 2022 and won 6 of the 19 seats it contested. In 2012, it had won zero seats out of 52 contested. Rajbhar is now with the BJP.

Similarly, Apna Dal (K) rose from zero in 2017 to 1 in 2022 with the SP. Pallavi Patel of the party became a giant killer by defeating BJP's Deputy CM Keshav Maurya.