RBI suspends due-diligence requirement for MSMEs for inclusion in various trade platforms to promote ease of doing business, says RBI Govenor

The monetary policy committee, chaired by the RBI Governor, meets every two months to review key economic indicators and determine the policy stance. Read full report here

The Indian rupee strengthened by 36 paise to open at 92.64 against the US dollar on Wednesday

The market-cap of all BSE-listed companies increased Rs 13.19 trillion to Rs 441.96 trillion, as against Rs 428.77 trillion at Tuesday's close. 

The Nifty India volatility index slumped 19.51 per cent to 19.88, which indicated that the expectation of near-term uncertainty has reduced. 

Belgium court backs Mehul Choksi extradition to India on six charges, ruling no risk of unfair trial; final decision now rests with government. 

Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi were trading 4.97 per cent and 5.69 per cent higher, respectively. 

The price of 24-carat gold fell Rs 10 in early trade on Wednesday, with ten grams of the precious metal trading at Rs 1,49,830, according to the GoodReturns website. The price of silver also declined by Rs 100, with one kilogram of the precious metal selling at Rs 2,49,900.

Nifty 50: 22,968 +1.12%

BankNifty: 52,609 +2.06%

India VIX: 25.4

Brent: $108

The Thesis

InvestorAi is betting on a dual-engine recovery: IT services and metals. BankNifty outperformed Nifty by nearly 2x today, signaling institutional risk appetite is returning even as FIIs pulled Rs 8,700 Cr yesterday. With VIX at 25 and PCR at 1.43, put writers are building a firm floor - giving buyers cover to add exposure. IT conviction reflects rupee pressure from $108 crude translating into margin tailwinds, while metals picks align with commodity repricing and infrastructure capex momentum.

Where We're Concentrated

Heavy IT (four names including both highest-confidence picks) and metals (three names including both highest-conviction picks). Auto ancillaries add cyclical depth with four names spanning tyres and components. The thesis breaks if FIIs accelerate selling beyond yesterday's Rs 8,700 Cr - DII absorption has limits, and sustained outflows would crack the support that PCR is currently pricing in.

Conviction Picks

HIGHEST CONVICTION

Hindalco Industries

Strongest model agreement in today's book - commodity cyclicals gain as BankNifty's 2% outperformance confirms institutional risk-on appetite and aluminium pricing firms globally.

HIGHEST CONVICTION

Wipro

Matches Hindalco's conviction strength - rupee weakness from $108 crude creates margin tailwinds for IT bellwethers as the sector sees rotation from FII selling fatigue.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE

HCL Technologies

Top confidence score reflects alignment on HCL's defensive earnings quality - exactly the profile institutional capital gravitates toward when VIX sits at 25.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE

Oracle Financial Services

Sits at the intersection of IT services and financial infrastructure - precisely where BankNifty's 2% outperformance is directing capital today.

STRONG CONVICTION

Jindal Stainless

Specialty steel plays into the infrastructure capex narrative and supply chain diversification - a structural tailwind that persists regardless of daily FII flows.

One Thing to Watch

FII flows today. Yesterday's Rs 8,700 Cr outflow was among the heaviest in weeks. If FIIs moderate to below Rs 3,000 Cr in outflows - or flip to net buying - it confirms the rotation thesis and gives the IT/metals book room to run. If outflows accelerate past Rs 10,000 Cr, the PCR floor cracks.

Global markets are showing strong positive momentum. GIFT Nifty is up around 3 per cent, while US index futures have surged over 2 per cent, and Asian markets are gaining between 3-5 per cent. This rally is largely driven by improved sentiment after US President Donald Trump and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire to advance talks aimed at ending the conflict. A major boost has also come from the sharp drop in Brent crude prices, which have fallen about 13 per cent to below $95 per barrel. This decline follows Iran's decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about disruptions in global oil and gas supply. The reduced geopolitical tension in the Gulf region has raised hopes for a return to stable energy flows worldwide. GIFT Nifty is up by roughly 700 points (3 per cent), while the Dow Jones Index has climbed around 800 points (2.5 per cent). The combination of falling oil prices, easing tensions between the US and Iran, and a strong rally across Asian markets is supporting overall investor sentiment. Domestically, attention is now on the RBI's credit policy announcement scheduled for 10 am. While the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, market participants will closely watch its commentary, especially in light of recent geopolitical developments. Sectors such as oil marketing companies, tyres, paints, capital goods, gold finance, metals, and pipes are likely to benefit from the easing of tensions in the Middle East and the decline in crude oil prices.

The repo headline matters, but the real issue is transmission and the RBI's broader signal. For borrowers, even a 25 bps move only creates meaningful relief if lenders pass it through fully. For ex. on a Rs 50 lakh, 20-year home loan, that is roughly Rs 700-800 a month in EMI savings.

But this is one of those phases where markets may value policy credibility and inflation discipline more than another symbolic rate cut, especially with crude, currency, and imported inflation risks back in focus. That is why I believe the 1st market reaction will likely show up in bond yields, banking stocks, NBFCs, autos, and real estate, rather than in immediate retail borrowing behaviour.

Consumers also tend to respond more to actual EMI changes and loan approvals than to the policy headline itself. For households, cheaper credit only matters when the benefit actually shows up and is not offset elsewhere. 

The total market cap of BSE Sensex stood at Rs 4,29,26,309 at the close on Tuesday.