No Mamata Banerjee Or MK Stalin: How These Assembly Polls Reshape Opposition

With the counting of votes underway in four states and one Union Territory, the BJP appears set to form a government in West Bengal for the first time, while securing another term in Assam. In Tamil Nadu, the newly formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) led by actor Vijay is on course to emerge as the single largest party. In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is positioned to return to power, while trends in Puducherry remain fragmented.

These outcomes, if confirmed, would mark a further consolidation of the BJP's position in eastern and southern states and alter the composition of non-BJP leadership at the state level. 

West Bengal: BJP On Threshold Of Historic Win

In Bengal, the BJP has established leads over the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), according to trends from the Election Commission. This suggests the party is close to securing the numbers required to form a government in a state where it has never held power.

The campaign in Bengal was marked by high tensions, with issues including the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, allegations of rigging, and political polarisation. 

BJP's Leader of Opposition in the state, Suvendu Adhikari, who is contesting from Nandigram and facing Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in Bhabanipur, expressed confidence in the outcome. He said that the BJP would form the government and that he expected to win his seat handsomely. 

Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool has been in power since 2011 and was seeking a fourth consecutive term. The current trends indicate a challenge to that claim. For the BJP, success in West Bengal would represent a long-sought expansion of its influence in eastern India.

Assam: BJP Heads For Third Term

In Assam, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is leading the BJP towards a third consecutive term. The party has leads in 74 of the 126 seats, with the Congress trailing significantly at 23 seats. 

The exit polls predicted a landslide win for the BJP. 

Tamil Nadu: TVK Disrupts Established Order

Tamil Nadu is witnessing a notable shift, with Vijay's TVK securing leads in key seats. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is second, while the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) of Chief Minister MK Stalin is in third place in leads.

Stalin's DMK has held power for the past decade. The emergence of TVK as the largest party would end the traditional binary between the two main Dravidian parties, DMK and AIADMK. 

Photo Credit: Thalapathy Vijay

Vijay, despite an earlier controversy involving a stampede at a rally in September 2025 that resulted in more than 40 deaths, has seen his party achieve this debut performance. The outcome positions him as a new force in the state's politics, potentially joining earlier actor-politicians who transitioned successfully into governance.

Kerala: UDF Set For Return, Left Declines

In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF has taken a strong position as the counting of votes continued. This indicates that the Left Democratic Front (LDF) government under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan is likely to lose power.

Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee chief Sunny Joseph described the trends as indicating a clear pro-UDF shift and expressed confidence that the alliance would reach the 100-seat mark in the 140-member assembly. 

The result would provide the Congress party with a state government in the south, where its presence has diminished in recent cycles

Puducherry: Fragmented Leads

Trends in Puducherry, which has a 30-member assembly, show the All India NR Congress ahead in seven seats. The Congress and BJP are each leading in two seats based on available data. The picture here remains less conclusive than in the larger states.

The Implications

The current round of state elections follows a pattern of BJP successes in recent elections. The party's streak of victories traces back to the 2014 general elections.

In February 2025, the BJP defeated the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi, removing Arvind Kejriwal from power. 

In November 2025, the Janata Dal (United)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) achieved a landslide in Bihar, with Nitish Kumar returning as Chief Minister. However, Nitish Kumar resigned from the post in April 2026, reducing the number of prominent non-BJP Chief Ministers.

The 2026 elections have placed the positions of several established opposition leaders under scrutiny. In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee; in Tamil Nadu, MK Stalin; and in Kerala, Pinarayi Vijayan, all face the prospect of losing office if the trends hold.

With several senior figures no longer heading state governments, the profile of the Opposition is likely to change. For the Congress, the potential government formation in Kerala offers a measure of consolidation. Party leaders view this as significant both for securing a state administration and for strengthening the position of Rahul Gandhi within the opposition framework, as other potential challengers exit chief ministerial roles.

For the BJP, gains in West Bengal would add a major state to its fold and extend its organisational reach. The party has described the developments as continuing its forward momentum, with these results adding to earlier advances.