Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange

Crypto markets are showing signs of stabilization, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $64,000 zone after defending the $62,200-62,400 demand area, while Ethereum has also recovered but continues to lag. The current move appears to be driven more by improving global macro conditions than by a major crypto-specific catalyst. Softer U.S. Treasury yields, a weaker dollar and renewed strength in U.S. equities have improved overall risk appetite, while the absence of a major ETF, regulatory or blockchain-related trigger suggests the recovery is still externally led. Technically, Bitcoin needs a sustained break above $64,500 to target the $65,000-65,600 supply zone, while Ethereum must reclaim $1,880 to confirm a broader breakout.

Gold has strengthened alongside crypto as lower yields and a softer dollar improved demand for non-yielding assets. A sustained hold above the $4,080 breakout zone would keep the upside structure intact, with $4,120-4,150 as the next major resistance band.

In U.S. markets, record highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to support sentiment, although earnings season is showing that investors now care more about forward cash flows than headline beats. SpaceX delivered stronger-than-expected revenue and earnings, but the stock reversed lower as attention shifted to elevated AI spending, continued losses and the upcoming insider lock-up expiry. AMD saw a similar reaction. The next major cross-asset catalysts are U.S. ADP employment data and ISM Services PMI.

The Thesis

Brent crude's 5% slide on Strait of Hormuz diplomacy directly compresses India's fuel costs and lifts consumer sentiment into the auto-and-lending complex. Wall Street closed at records - S&P 500 +1.79%, Nasdaq +2.59% - on the same tailwind overnight. With the RBI holding at 5.25%, domestic credit stays accommodative: consumption and the capital cycle align around lower energy.

Where We're Concentrated

Conviction is concentrated in the Indian auto value chain - passenger vehicles (M&M, Hyundai), commercial vehicles (Ashok Leyland), and the NBFCs funding them (Shriram Finance, Bajaj Finserv). Lower Brent connects all five: vehicle economics, freight margins, and household incomes improve in one move. The thesis breaks on crude reversing above $82.

Conviction Picks

Highest Conviction

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.

Brent's retreat fuels consumer confidence; India's top-selling UV maker positioned for demand reacceleration.

Shriram Finance Ltd.

Commercial vehicle credit inflects as fuel costs normalize; rate-hold at 5.25% underpins NBFC margin stability.

Hyundai Motor India Ltd.

Passenger car affordability improves as fuel costs ease; domestic order momentum builds on the crude tailwind.

Bajaj Finserv Ltd.

Lower crude eases household budgets, expanding the addressable base for consumer insurance and retail lending.

Ashok Leyland Ltd.

Fuel relief improves freight economics; CV order momentum is building as domestic infrastructure spending accelerates.

One Thing to Watch

Brent reclaiming $82. A sustained move above $82 reverses the fuel-cost tailwind and undercuts the auto and CV-lending thesis simultaneously. Also watch whether Oman-mediated Strait of Hormuz talks produce a concrete reopening timeline - a breakdown risks crude snapping back sharply.

Gaurav Udani, Founder - Thincredblu Securities 

"Nifty Futures is expected to open sharply higher around 24,750, up nearly 200 points, while the Nifty Cash index is likely to open around 24,670, reflecting strong positive global cues and improving market sentiment.

The sharp gap-up indicates that bullish momentum remains intact. 24,550 will act as the immediate support for Nifty Futures, while 24,900 is the key resistance level. A sustained move above 24,900 could trigger fresh buying and pave the way for the next leg of the rally.

The overall market structure continues to remain positive, with improving sentiment and strong participation from the broader market.

Traders should avoid chasing the gap-up opening and instead look to buy on dips near key support levels. As long as Nifty Futures holds above 24,550, the short-term trend remains firmly bullish."

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 ended Tuesday at 24,614.90, declining 159.40 points or 0.64% after a strong four-session rally, as investors opted for profit booking ahead of the RBI policy announcement amid heightened geopolitical concerns and elevated crude oil prices. However, the broader market structure remains constructive, supported by resilient domestic fundamentals and improving global risk sentiment.

Global cues have turned favourable overnight. Wall Street witnessed a strong rebound, with the Dow Jones soaring 907.47 points, the S&P 500 advancing 1.79%, and the Nasdaq Composite rallying 2.59%, as easing concerns over the Strait of Hormuz boosted investor confidence and reignited buying in technology stocks.

Asian markets are mixed, with Shanghai trading higher and the Nikkei marginally positive, while the Hang Seng remains under mild pressure.

A key positive for Indian equities is the sharp correction in Brent crude, which has slipped nearly 6% to around $79 per barrel. Lower crude prices are expected to ease inflationary pressures, improve India's macro outlook, and provide support to the rupee. Meanwhile, GIFT Nifty at 24,737.5 indicates a firm start, pointing to an opening gain of nearly 150 points.

The near-term outlook continues to favour the bulls. A sustained move above 24,700 could pave the way for a retest of the 25,000 milestone, while 24,400 is expected to act as immediate support, followed by 24,200. Although the RBI policy announcement remains the key event for the day, supportive global markets, easing crude prices, and improving risk appetite are likely to keep the underlying market sentiment positive.

"BTC remained near $64K, showing little reaction even as global risk assets rallied sharply on hopes of a US-Iran agreement and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Falling oil prices pushed Treasury yields lower and reduced expectations of a September Fed rate hike, supporting a strong recovery in US equities. The Nasdaq gained nearly 3%, while the S&P 500 returned to record territory, led by a rebound in AI infrastructure stocks. BTC Holding above $64K would keep the short-term structure positive and could support another attempt at $64,400. If Bitcoin falls below $64K, the next important support levels are around $63,600."

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Bitcoin has regained momentum, trading above $64,000 as easing geopolitical tensions improve sentiment across risk assets. Optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices down nearly 5%, reducing inflation concerns and lowering the probability of a September rate hike to around 57-59%, from nearly 67%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin futures open interest declined to 740,000 BTC from a July 3 peak of 776,000 BTC. A similar pattern to April, when a full Hormuz reopening triggered $762 million in liquidations, mostly on the short side, suggests another short squeeze. For now, $65,000 continues to act as the major resistance zone while support stands at $62,800. 

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At the close on Tuesday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,89,50,523.