Exit Polls: The Complete Analysis Of What To Expect

Tomorrow will decide the fate of two charismatic women Chief Ministers, two Congress Chief Ministers, and with that, whether these assembly polls be a repeat of the results of the 2014 Lok Sabha where BJP did extremely well in Assam and the Congress, CPM and the DMK all lost ground from 2011.

If you believe in Exit Polls, they certainly indicate a big loss for the Congress, a huge victory for the BJP nationally, a fall from grace for Jayalalithaa, and a virtually untouched-by-anti-incumbency Mamata returning to lead West Bengal.

Unfortunately, exit polls have been notoriously wrong in India, and even for these state elections, it appears that while they may get the trend right, the details will be incorrect based on the alarmingly wide range of results they show.
 
This table clearly shows that except in West Bengal, where everyone predicts Mamata will be back (whether with an astronomical 253 seats or 167 is the big sticking point), the other states could go any which way depending on who you believe or want to believe. So while, some claim that Achhe Din are here for the BJP and others are celebrating the demise of the Congress, may be everyone should hold their horses and wait for the counting tomorrow.

If that sounds reasonable to you, here are some quick pointers of what to look for in each of the four big states:

Assam

This is a must-win state for the BJP after its recent losses in Delhi and Bihar, and all but one exit poll seems to indicate that it will oust the Congress' long-serving Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. These predictions are in line with conventional wisdom that 15 years of Gogoi have built up much anti-incumbency and the BJP will repeat its 2014 general election romp and emerge an easy winner.

But for that easy win, the BJP needs to sweep Upper Assam like it did in 2014. Especially watch the tea garden area in the North and Eastern part of Upper Assam which needs to turn saffron in a big way, as it did in 2014. The other booster area is Northern Lower Assam, where the BJP's allies are strong.

For the Congress, the Southern belt of Lower Assam is very important. Much has been written about the consolidation of the Muslim vote behind the Congress in this area where the majority of seats have a large Muslim population. If the Congress does well here, then it will stop a BJP sweep. The googly here is the AIUDF led by Badruddin Ajmal, who has a strong base. If the Muslim vote splits between him and the Congress, the BJP gains big.

Kerala

The state where the Congress-led UDF and the CPM-led Left Front exchange power every five years is predicted to move back to the Left Front. That strongly depends on the Left Front repeating last winter's success in the panchayat elections where it won 67% of the seats. 

To watch for: the Left Front holding onto its bastions in the North and South, and not losing votes to the BJP in the Hindu areas where it is strong. Though opinion on whom the BJP hurts when picking up votes is divided, but given the strong Christian and Muslim base of the Congress, it would be less likely that they cede ground to the BJP. If the BJP takes votes from the Left Front, would that be enough to keep Oommen Chandy and the UDF in power?

If the BJP's strong campaign is to bear fruit, it needs to pick up seats in Thiruvanthapuram area in the deep south where the BJP won four assembly segments in 2014 general election and also in Manjeswar in the extreme North, where it has been doing well. 

Fallout: The loss in Kerala for the Congress would mark the end of Chief Minister's Oommen Chandy's reign as a leader of the Congress, while that of the Left Front would probably see this as the last campaign of veteran CPM leader VS Achuthanandan. If the BJP opens its account in the state, this would be a major achievement.  

Tamil Nadu

Again a yo-yo state. When campaigning began, conventional wisdom was that Jayalalithaa and the AIADMK would come home easily. As the campaign has worn on, this wisdom has also shifted. The exit polls (3 out 4) predict a victory for the DMK. They also discount the DMDK-led Third Front of "Captain" Vijayakanth and the PMK of Anbumani Ramadoss.

Watch the area around Chennai to see if the failure of the Jayalalithaa government during the floods last here is punished with a loss of seats. The DMK is strong in the North, and it needs to gain here if it is to win.

More importantly, the AIADMK did really well in the Kaveri Delta where it won 44/54 seats, West (34 of 48 seats) in 2011, and if it is losing ground, then it will need to lose here. 

Fallout: whichever party wins, this is likely to be the last election for the two protagonists. M Karunanidhi is 93 and Jayalalithaa, 68, is said to be unwell.

West Bengal

The one state that every pollster is agreed on. Of course, there is a highly-optimistic 253 seats predicted on the one hand and the more conservative 167 seats on the other (Mamata Banerjee currently has 184); but all polls give her a majority, and place the Left-Congress alliance in opposition.

If Mamata is to sweep the state, then she needs to repeat her 2011 performance in the capital Kolkata and the suburbs (last time, the Trinamool won 41 out of 42 seats in Kolkata and 46 of 54 in outer Kolkata). In 2014, she added the South West region of 49 seats to her sea of blue, but north, central and upper Bengal remained out of her reach.

The urban middle class that rushed to overthrow the Left front in 2011 is said to have become disillusioned with the Trinamool, if that is true, then the first signs of losing support should be in Kolkata and its neighbourhood. How she does here should decide the size of her victory.

When the polls for these states were announced, there wasn't much excitement in the air. Most people though that the elections were done deals and Mamata, Jayalalithaa and the BJP in Assam would romp home, while the Left Front would be the winner in Kerala. The long campaign has taken its toll, races look closer and the fall out is significant. For the three national parties - BJP, Congress and the CPM - a win somewhere would be a great morale booster.

On the negative side, Congress will be very worried if it loses both Assam and Kerala; and the alliances in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu fail to do well. Similarly, the CPM needs at least one victory, to remain a national player. 

And if the BJP cannot consolidate its general election votes in Assam, West Bengal and Kerala, it would mean that the Modi wave has waned. If they just win Assam, that would be enough for them to celebrate.

(Ishwari Bajpai is Senior Advisor at NDTV)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.