Inside Russia's Plan To Help Power Iran's Kill Machine Against Americans

Russia's cutting-edge technology might be one of the reasons why the American war on Iran is failing. The Vladimir Putin government is already thought to have provided intelligence that enabled Iranian drones to target American forces in the Middle East. Now, a new report suggests Moscow might also have offered to provide Tehran with unjammable drones and training to use them against American troops in the Middle East. 

Citing a confidential document, The Economist reported that the Putin administration's secret plan involved Russia providing Iran with 5,000 short-range fibre-optic drones-- ones used by Moscow in Ukraine-- and an unknown number of longer-range satellite-guided drones. Moscow's offer to Tehran also involves the training of professionals to use both sorts.

This is the first evidence that suggests Russia could have provided Tehran with innovative weapons in large enough numbers that could inflict many casualties on American and allied forces.

The drone delivery plan is reportedly part of a ten-page proposal prepared by the GRU -- the intelligence arm of Russia's armed forces -- to be presented before Tehran. The undated proposal contains six diagrams and a map depicting islands off the coast of Iran, The Economist reported. 

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In its analysis of the document, the British publication estimated the proposal was drafted within the first six weeks of the war, when there was a high chance of President Donald Trump ordering ground troops to attack Iran and potentially to seize Kharg Island, an important oil facility. However, it was not confirmed if the document was passed to the Iranians or whether Moscow sent any drones to Iran. 

Christo Grozev, an expert on Russia's intelligence services, told The Economist that the proposal fits with evidence emerging across the region of closer military co-operation between Russia and Iran. He noted that the plan is also consistent with other evidence that suggests the GRU is looking for ways of increasing Russian support for Iran against war with the US and Israel.

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Other Intel On Moscow's Iran Support

Nearly one month into the war in late March, Western intelligence officials claimed that Moscow was prepping to send its own upgraded versions of the long-range Shahed-type drones to Tehran. Russia initially bought these drones from Iran in 2022 and started producing them with upgrades in 2023. The Russian versions of the drone have better technology to evade air defences and carry heavier payloads but do not represent a step change in capability.

By contrast, Russia's short-range fibre-optic drones are less manoeuvrable but transmit sharper video imagery and give out no radio signals that could be used by the enemy to locate and attack the operator.

They create large "grey zones" under which their open targets are attacked remorselessly. Instead of being guided using radio signals, which can be jammed, these drones are controlled by human operators, who guide them through thin wires that spool out behind them. These drones can be used to conduct pinpoint attacks at ranges of over 40km.

Recently, these drones emerged in Lebanon, where Iran's proxy Hezbollah used them to attack Israeli forces. Israeli officials have confirmed that Hezbollah received these drones through Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, but, according to The Economist report, they did not confirm if Russia was the original source. 

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Other Elements Of Russian Plans

Russia's secret plan also reportedly has a provision for providing Iran with long-range satellite-guided drones equipped with Starlink terminals. Russia had used this kind of drone to evade or attack Ukrainian air defences in the past. 

But earlier this year, billionaire Elon Musk denied Starlink access to Russian forces by blocking all terminals operating in Ukraine except for those on a "white list" approved by Ukraine's government. Moscow's plan suggests these drones could instead be diverted and used in the Middle East, which has no such restrictions as of now.

Another element of the plan was Moscow training Iranian forces to use Russian equipment. The Economist's analysis shows Moscow proposed recruiting drone operators from among an estimated 10,000 Iranian students studying in Russian universities. 

Other communities that Russia planned to potentially tap are Tajiks, who speak both Russian and a version of Persian, and the Alawite minority in Syria, loyal to the ousted regime of Bashar al-Assad. Every potential operator would be screened for loyalty and against religious extremism, the proposal reportedly suggested.