US President Donald Trump and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth have consistently claimed that the American-Israeli war on Iran has weakened the West Asian nation, but a new report claims the opposite.
Citing a confidential CIA assessment shared with American policymakers, The Washington Post reported that Iran could withstand the ongoing US naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing severe economic pressure.
The assessment comes amid tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route that Iran effectively closed after the war began in February.
The report appears to contradict Trump's repeated claims that Iran's military and economy are close to collapse.
Iran still has nearly 70 per cent of its prewar missile stockpile and around 75 per cent of its mobile missile launchers, a US official told The Post.
The official further said Tehran has managed to reopen most underground storage facilities, repair damaged missiles and even complete assembly of some weapons that were nearly ready before the conflict started.
But Trump claimed on Wednesday that Iran's missile capabilities had been “mostly decimated.”
“They have probably 18, 19 per cent, but not a lot by comparison to what they had,” he said during Oval Office remarks.
But the CIA believes that Iran can survive the blockade for 90 to 120 days and “maybe longer.”
Tehran is reportedly storing oil on tanker ships and reducing oil field output to preserve infrastructure. One official said Iran's situation is “nowhere near as dire as some have claimed”.
The blockade was imposed by Trump a week after the April 7 ceasefire. It applies to all ships entering or leaving Iranian ports. Trump earlier described the naval operation as “like a wall of steel. Nobody goes through.”
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly claimed Iran is losing $500 million daily because of the blockade. “Now, they are being strangled economically,” she said.
The CIA analysis also warned that Iran's missile and drone threat remains serious. Tehran is believed to have started the war with around 2,500 ballistic missiles and thousands of drones.
Iranian strikes damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at US military sites in the Middle East.
US officials believe Iran could resume large-scale ballistic missile production sooner than previously. But for controlling movement through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's low-cost drones may pose a bigger threat than missiles because they can be produced in small, hidden facilities that are difficult to detect.
Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence official, said “All it takes is one drone to hit a ship and no one will give insurance” to oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
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