In an earlier opinion piece, I had listed 13 seats in the southern and western parts of Tamil Nadu that could reveal definitive trends at the end of the day in determining the results of this assembly election face-off. This piece lists out defining contests in Central and North TN, including those in Chennai city.
Central Tamil Nadu (The Delta Districts)
The DMK alliance won 39 of the 49 seats in the core and extended delta districts of the state. This is a traditional region of influence, and the party simply has to hold on to these numbers even as the AIADMK is determined to retake some of its agrarian strongholds. Vijay contesting from Trichy East and the Seeman factor are at play here, as are caste arithmetic, anti-incumbency, and ideological issues.
Trichy East
Obviously, the Vijay factor in a DMK bastion will be put to its most powerful test here because this is one of the two seats Vijay is contesting. It is a three-way battle between the incumbent MLA of the DMK, Inigo Idayaraj; a strong AIADMK candidate, G. Rajashekaran; and the TVK Chief, C. Joseph Vijay.
The Christian vote is higher than the state average here, and the Vijay versus Inigo face-off will decisively show three things:
Is Vijay taking away the DMK's Christian vote base?
Is Vijay taking away the DMK's urban vote?
While Vijay and the DMK are fighting it out, can the AIADMK smell a chance to retake seats that it once held and lost to the DMK after Jayalalithaa's demise?
The Trichy East battle is going to be one of the most closely watched in this election because of the Vijay factor and the extent of the impact it will have on the DMK in the urban centres of the delta districts. This could well show a trend that proves decisive by the end of the election.
Srirangam (Trichy district)
Neighbouring Srirangam is also a traditional AIADMK seat, one that Jayalalithaa herself contested and won in 2011. The DMK won the seat in 2021 but has replaced the incumbent, Palaniyandi, with a new candidate, S. Durairaj. The AIADMK has fielded a former MLA who also served as the party's whip in the legislative assembly. The TVK has fielded a young greenhorn candidate, S. Ramesh, who is campaigning hard. This is a closely contested battle that will reveal if the TVK is hurting the DMK or AIADMK more. More importantly, it will show if the AIADMK remains resilient in a seat that is symbolically important to it.
The impact of Vijay in Trichy East will be felt here, and this seat will also show whether the AIADMK can retake its traditional strongholds lost to the DMK.
Mannargudi (Thiruvarur District )
This is the old DMK-Left bastion in the late M. Karunanidhi's home district of Thiruvarur. The incumbent is the state's industries minister, T.R.B. Rajaa, one of the most influential faces of the party. This seat is also erstwhile Jayalalitaa aide, who has been relegated to the sidelines, VK Sasikala's home turf.
She has split from her nephew, T.T.V. Dhinakaran - whose AMMK is with the AIADMK alliance - and is campaigning for her own party, the All India Puratchi Thalaivar Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AIPTMMK). Her party has struck an alliance with Ramadoss Senior's PMK faction and has fielded candidates in several seats.
While the splits in the AIADMK and the opposition make Rajaa's position even stronger, and he is clearly in pole position after winning the seat thrice, the vote in this seat will test the dominance the DMK maintains and how badly the erstwhile AIADMK vote is being split despite the AMMK-AIADMK alliance. The impact of TVK in agrarian areas will also be tested.
Vedaranyam (Nagapatinam District)
The old warhorse of the AIADMK and one of Jayalalithaa's close confidantes, O.S. Manian, is the incumbent two-time MLA here. It is a litmus test for the AIADMK's resilience in its traditional coastal stronghold. Can Manian and the AIADMK withstand a multi-pronged assault on this delta bastion? This seat is particularly significant because it will gauge the AIADMK's ability to consolidate the crucial fishermen vote-a demographic that has historically swung the tide in this salt-swathed terrain but is now being courted aggressively by all sides, including the TVK. The NTK also has a base here.
The DMK has fielded a new candidate, Pugazhendi, and the TVK has fielded the young Kingsley Gerald. It will be interesting to see the impact of both the TVK and NTK on the fishermen's vote and whether that will weaken the AIADMK's coastal bastions in the tail end of the delta districts, where the Cauvery River withers away into the sea.
Northern Region
The DMK alliance swept this region with 64 of the 78 seats in 2021, winning every seat in the Chennai and Tiruvallur districts and most seats in the other districts. It was a peak performance that has left very little room for further gains - only for potential losses. It is essential that the DMK cut its losses in both Chennai and the other districts.
The reason this region is critical is that it is the home turf of the PMK and the VCK. If the PMK split fractures the OBC Vanniyar vote, the NDA arithmetic goes for a toss; if the TVK captures the youth in these districts, the DMK's 2021 arithmetic will collapse.
The Chennai city seat is going to be a battle of DMK organisation versus TVK star power versus AIADMK's resilience.
Katpadi (Vellore District)
This seat will show if the DMK's senior-most face and General Secretary, Duraimurugan, can survive the anti-incumbency of a multi-term veteran. He won by a mere 746 votes in 2021, the narrowest margin in the region.
The AIADMK has fielded V. Ramu, a local strongman who has been working the ground since the last loss. More importantly, the TVK has entered the fray here with a fresh face, and the impact of the youth vote on the DMK's tally is the key trend to watch. Results here will test one of the most powerful faces of the party in the region. He is also the OBC Vanniyar face of the party, and the impact of the split in the PMK will be assessed from most seats in the region. Minority consolidation is also a critical factor; if the TVK can break the minority vote, it would be a lethal blow to the DMK.
Vikravandi (Villupuram District) Eight months after the TVK held its massive first state conference here, this seat will show whether that "crowd" translates into "cadre." The DMK has fielded the incumbent, Anniyur Siva, who won the 2024 by-election with a massive margin.
However, the TVK's candidate, A. Vijay Vadivel, is targeting the large neutral and youth vote. The AIADMK's K. Vijaya is fighting to reclaim what was once a swing seat. In the big picture, this seat will show if the TVK can actually win in the rural Vanniyar heartland or if it merely acts as a spoiler that helps one of the other two parties. This will also show whether the fierce family battles in the PMK - which had claimed to be the party of the OBC Vanniyar vote - will result in that vote gravitating toward Vijay. In many ways, this is an existential question for the PMK.
Arakkonam (Ranipet District - Reserved)
This reserved seat is a prestige battle for the VCK and the DMK alliance. The incumbent MLA and AIADMK strongman, S. Ravi, is facing off against the VCK's Gowthama Sanna (DMK alliance) and the TVK's M. Loganathan.
This seat will show whether the Dalit vote base, which has been the bedrock of the DMK alliance in the north, is staying with Thirumavalavan or shifting toward Vijay's promise of "secular social justice." If the TVK dents the VCK here, it signals a massive shift in the state's subaltern politics-a trend that could have an impact across northern districts and could mean an existential threat to the VCK.
Sriperumbudur (Kanchipuram District - Reserved)
The State Congress president, K. Selvaperunthagai, is seeking to hold this emotional Congress seat. He has been accused of "selling the party out" to the DMK and accepting a low number of seats. There is friction between the Congress and the DMK at a leadership level, but Selvaperunthagai is seen as being close to the DMK leadership.
The AIADMK has fielded K. Palani, a local face focusing on the grievances of the automotive belt workers. The TVK candidate, K. Thennarasu, is a fresh entry specifically aimed at the Dalit youth who feel the traditional VCK-DMK combine hasn't delivered on employment promises. This is a crucial seat as it has the urban influence of Chennai; the Vijay fan base is a crucial factor, and Selvaperunthagai will have to cement a shaky electoral field. This will also test the TVK's power in a symbolically important seat for the Congress.
Avadi (Tiruvallur District) Located in the sprawling suburbs of Chennai, Avadi is defined by a mix of urban migration, government employees, defence personnel, and a large labour-class population. The DMK has fielded the incumbent, S.M. Nasar, who lost in 2016 to the AIADMK but won in 2021. The party's calculus here has been built on both the minority vote and organisational might.
The AIADMK has allotted the seat to the BJP's Rajasimha Mahendra to take on the DMK, and the TVK has fielded R. Rameshkumar, who is aiming for the massive "first-time voter" demographic in these booming suburbs. This seat is the real test of whether the TVK is a "city party," a "suburban force," or neither. The results here will show if the DMK's organisational might (led by Nasar) can be dismantled by the sheer cultural momentum of a celebrity leader in the high-density northern suburbs.
Virudhachalam (Cuddalore District)
This politically volatile northern Tamil Nadu seat will stand as testimony to many different factors that could be decisive in these elections. Virudhachalam is defined by Vanniyar caste influence, an agrarian economy, and a history of razor-thin electoral margins. It is the symbolic stronghold of the late Vijayakanth's DMDK. It was the only seat he won in his entry elections in 2006. The seat carries the "Captain legacy" factor, even as it has oscillated between alliances in 2016 and 2021. This time, it's a prestige battle for DMK's newfound ally, Premalatha, the DMDK supremo.
This seat will test if the DMK-DMDK alliance works on the ground in Northern Tamil Nadu and if the Congress, VCK, and other smaller forces remain relevant in this part of the state. This is important because the alliance arithmetic is the single strongest pole upon which the DMK's chances depend across the state. This is also part of VCK Chief Thirumavalavan's parliamentary seat; hence, along with the Kattumannarkoil assembly seat where his own party candidate is facing off with the PMK, Virudhachalam is a litmus test for the VCK's relevance in the Vijay era.
The advantage for the DMK alliance is the split in the PMK. The NDA's candidate is the PMK's Tamilarasi Adhimoolam, but Ramadoss Senior's PMK has also fielded a candidate, Suresh. This is a core PMK influence region, and this seat will test the impact of the split in the party and the impact of Vijay on the DMDK and VCK vote bases in a seat defined by closely fought caste arithmetic.
Chennai City Seats
Perambur
This is the most-watched contest in this election. Can Vijay take on the DMK's might and deal the grand old Dravidian party a body blow in its strongest bastion? Perambur will answer that question. With Vijay contesting from this seat against the incumbent two-time DMK MLA, R.D. Sekar, this is one of the defining battles of this election. Let's not forget this seat neighbours M.K. Stalin's Kolathur seat, and the result here will be decisive for both the DMK and the TVK.
Given the strong Left influence and large minority population (especially the Christian vote), the AIADMK seems to have decided to watch Perambur from the sidelines and has allotted the seat to the PMK. It is a symbolic message from the AIADMK that they don't want to waste time in a TVK versus DMK face-off. Star power versus organisational might is what this battle is about. Seeman's NTK got close to ten per cent of the vote here in 2021, and the result here will show if Vijay is going to squeeze everyone else for their votes.
Thousand Lights
The DMK's N. Ezhilan is facing off against a former AIADMK strongman (now the TVK's) J.C.D. Prabhakar, and a former J. Jayalalithaa confidante and minister, B. Valarmathi of the AIADMK. This is one of the most interesting battles. The constituency's legacy-once represented by figures like M.K. Stalin-and its dense, mixed demographic profile make it one of the most politically visible seats in Chennai.
In the larger trend, Thousand Lights is a bellwether for urban, minority-heavy, middle-class constituencies where governance performance and candidate credibility matter as much as party identity. Results here will signal if there is continued DMK dominance in core Chennai, whether the AIADMK can regain lost ground, or if the TVK, with a veteran political face, can decimate both Dravidian parties. Given that the TVK has fielded a former AIADMK leader, the impact of the TVK in taking over the AIADMK vote, especially in the city, will be a major takeaway. This is crucial, as many currently claim Chennai is largely a DMK versus TVK fight; the results here could indicate shifting sands.
T. Nagar
This important seat for the DMK comes under the TVK and AIADMK challenge as Vijay's number two and perhaps his closest confidante, 'Bussy' N. Anand, is the TVK's candidate. The DMK has fielded Raja Anbazhagan, whose late father, J Anbazhagan, was a confidante of M.K. Stalin. Raja Anbazhagan's uncle is the incumbent DMK MLA, and the family is the DMK's power force in T. Nagar. However, the seat has historically been an AIADMK bastion, with the DMK having won it only twice since 1991.
The AIADMK has fielded former MLA B. Sathyanarayanan, who won the seat in 2016. This seat will test where an AIADMK strongman finds himself in the midst of a TVK-DMK battle. This is purely about Vijay's star power, as Anand is an outsider to the seat-in fact, he is from Puducherry. However, Anand is high-profile, and Vijay himself campaigned for him. Anand's performance will be a bellwether for the TVK, as the party is facing off against two veteran Dravidian grassroots politicians. Crucially, T. Nagar has been identified as a "weak" or vulnerable seat for the DMK, placing it at the centre of the party's defensive strategy in the city. The results here will show how much of the 2021 clean sweep the DMK can hold on to.
(The author is Executive Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
