In an earlier opinion piece on the Tamil Nadu elections, I had stated that this election is not a big wave election, but one that's being fought on a seat-by-seat basis. In any general election, there are tough contests, and then there are defining battles.
The first is about candidates; the second will reveal a battle that's bigger--one that could reflect a decisive trend that will determine the overall result. From our extensive travel across the state, below are the defining contests and why. This is not about high-profile candidates; this piece is about the key contest seats in the western and southern districts.
In the next piece, I will list out Central (Delta districts), north Tamil Nadu, and Chennai city seats to watch out for.
Western Region
The AIADMK alliance swept this region in 2021, winning 43 out of 57 seats here. It swept Salem with 10 of 11 seats, won all 10 in Coimbatore, six of eight in Tiruppur, five of eight in Erode, and all five in Dharmapuri. In Namakkal, it won only two of six, and in the hilly Nilgiris, it lost all three.
The reason this is important is because Coimbatore, Tiruppur, Erode, Salem, and Dharmapuri are the districts where the DMK must make gains this time to offset losses elsewhere. The DMK had a full sweep in Chennai and peaked in the north and central districts and the south in 2021. If it faces losses after five years in power in these regions, the only space for gains, arguably, is in the West.
1. Coimbatore South
This seat will show if the DMK's most powerful face in the region--the one known for his organisational might and the one facing ED cases, former minister Senthil Balaji--can rewrite the DMK's Coimbatore calculus. In fact, across this region, the candidates have been selected by Senthil Balaji, who has vacated his traditional Karur seat to contest from here and prove a point.
The BJP's Vanathi Srinivasan (AIADMK alliance) beat MNM Chief and actor Kamal Haasan (DMK alliance) by less than 2,000 votes in 2021. She has shifted to Coimbatore North, and Senthil Balaji is facing off with AIADMK strongman Amman K Arjunan, who won Coimbatore North in 2021 and is now contesting from here.
Results here will test whether the AIADMK can hold on to its bastion. Vijay's TVK and Seeman's NTK are also factors here, and the impact they will have on a classic AIADMK vs DMK battle is being closely watched.
2. Gobichettipalayam (Erode district)
Eight-time AIADMK MLA from this seat and now one of the TVK's biggest faces, KA Sengottayan, will show whether the loyalty to "Two Leaves", which is deep and emotional, can shift to the TVK's whistle on voting day. The AIADMK has fielded a young VB Prabhu to take on Sengottayan. In 2021, the DMK had lost by over 25,000 votes, but if the AIADMK vote gets split, it could throw open an opportunity for the DMK.
In the big picture, this seat will show how strong the 'Two Leaves' vote is in seats where former AIADMK leaders have shifted to the TVK. It's also a crucial test for the TVK on whether it can win seats. The possible tacit grassroots understandings between the DMK and AIADMK to keep the TVK at bay would also be crucial to watch out for here.
3. Tiruchengode (Namakkal District)
The TVK's general secretary and former IRS officer, one known as a crucial strategist in the party, KG Arun Raj, is facing off with the sub-regional, caste-based Kongu Makkal Desiya Katchi's incumbent MLA ER Easwaran (part of the DMK alliance) and AIADMK's R Chandrashekar.
This seat will show whether the TVK and one of its strongest faces can wipe out small regional parties and make a huge inroad into caste vote bases in the western parts of the state. This will also show how much the AIADMK can hold grassroots equations, as Easwaran was an AIADMK ally who has shifted to the DMK this time.
4. Salem West
This will be one of the crucial seats where the 'PMK factor', after the split between Ramadoss Sr and Ramadoss Jr, will be assessed. The incumbent MLA Arul Ramadoss is part of the family and has stuck with Ramadoss senior. Ramadoss Junior (part of the AIADMK alliance) has fielded a strong candidate, M Karthe. The DMK has stayed out of the PMK battle and has given the seat to the DMDK.
How much the split in the PMK family has hurt the party and who has the people's support will be tested here. The PMK, which has the OBC Vanniyar caste vote base, is a crucial AIADMK ally, and if the split in the party impacts its vote base, it may be felt across the region. That's why Salem West is crucial to watch out for.
This will also show if the split in the PMK and the alliance with the DMDK can help the DMK alliance breach Edappadi Palaniswami's fortress. The entire district, with seats like neighbouring Veerapandi, which the DMK is fighting hard to wrest, will be a fascinating test of alliance arithmetic and 'Two Leaves' resilience.
5. Dharmapuri
Again, a PMK seat in 2021, this time Anbumani Ramadoss's wife Sowmya Ramadoss is the party candidate, but Ramadoss senior has fielded his own candidate, A Saravanan. The DMK has again stayed out of the fight, giving the seat to its ally, the DMDK. Who is siding with whom at the grassroots will be closely watched, and this seat is the real prestige battle for Anbumani Ramadoss and will determine his political future.
Southern Region
The DMK alliance swept the south, and what's described as the deep south, winning 42 of the 58 seats in the last election. It won 25 of the 36 in the districts of Madurai, Dindigul, Theni, Virudhunagar, Sivaganga, and Ramanathapuram, where the OBC Thevar vote is one of the important factors. The DMK did even better in the deep southern districts of Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli, Tenkasi, and Kanyakumari, winning 17 of the 22 seats. The impact of the TTV Dhinakaran and Edappadi Palaniswami alliance and that of the Congress-DMK chemistry will be put to test here, as would the impact of the TVK.
1. Bodinayakkanur (Theni District)
Party loyalties are very deep in Tamil Nadu. Party symbols are tattooed and displayed with pride. When O Panneerselvam, who was chosen by Jayalalithaa to hold the Chief Minister's post twice when she had to vacate, shifted to the DMK, it raised many eyebrows. Sidelined by EPS and not able to make peace with the TTV Dhinakaran and Sasikala family, O Panneerselvam walked into Anna Arivalayam and MK Stalin's arms, but will the 'Two Leaves' loyalists accept this shift?
In fact, Vijay's TVK seemed like an option, but OPS went to the DMK and now has Udhayanidhi Stalin campaigning for him in Bodinayakkanur. In fact, in 2021, OPS defeated a TTS here, Thanga Tamil Selvan, the present Member of Parliament from the Theni district. TTS had broken out of the AIADMK with TTV Dhinakaran after Jayalalithaa's death and then shifted to the DMK.
The AIADMK has fielded a local strongman, VT Narayanasamy, and this constituency will show if Edappadi made a mistake by keeping OPS out and if the latter can take with him this AIADMK stronghold to the DMK. In a larger sense, it will test the OPS impact for the DMK in Theni district and the TTV Dhinakaran impact for the AIADMK alliance.
2. Alangulam
Similarly, in the Alangulam seat, PH Manoj Pandian, who won as an AIADMK candidate in 2021, is contesting on a DMK ticket. He was again someone who fell out with EPS and walked into the DMK. In the deep south Nadar vote confines, this seat will show if the 'Two Leaves' can hold out against such shifts.
3. Virudhunagar
This is a high-profile seat in which the late DMDK founder and actor Vijayakanth's son, Vijay Prabhakar, is contesting as part of the DMK-Congress alliance. He faced off with Congress's Manickam Tagore in an extremely close fight just two years ago in the parliamentary polls. This seat is a test of whether the DMK's decision to bring in the DMDK and the Congress as part of its massive alliance will work at the grassroots. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Vijay Prabhakar contested as part of the AIADMK alliance in a three-way fight with Manickam Tagore from the Congress and Radhika Sarathkumar from the NDA.
This is seen as a DMDK area of influence seat; it had won this seat in 2011 as part of the AIADMK alliance. But since then, the DMK has held the seat. The DMK-DMDK alliance is untested on the ground, and this seat will show if it's working. For the DMDK, it simply has to work for Vijay Prabhakar's political future, and for the DMK, it must work as it has vacated an incumbent seat to accommodate the alliance. The AIADMK has fielded a fresh candidate, VG Ganesan, but this seat is more about whether the DMK-DMDK-Congress alliance is working on the ground and if Vijay's TVK can take away votes of parties like the DMDK.
4. Karaikudi (Sivaganga district)
This is a closely watched contest in one of the few Congress strongholds in the state and one that Sivaganga MP Karti P Chidambaram is heavily invested in. It's a close four-cornered contest this time with the incumbent Congress MLA S Mangudi fighting a tough battle with the fiery orator and Naam Tamizhar Katchi Chief Seeman, a credible and locally established TVK candidate, dentist TK Prabhu, and the NDA's candidate from the AMMK, DV Pandi.
This seat is important not just because it's a crucial one for the Congress, but more because it will show what happens in tough four-cornered contests and how much the NTK and Seeman can withstand the churning in Tamil Nadu politics. Will the Seeman vote get taken over by Vijay, or can he hold his own? This seat will test that. This seat will also test the impact the TVK will have in seats where it has strong, locally respected fresh-face candidates. It will also show the relevance of the AMMK. So many different trends will emerge out of this one seat-a big takeaway for all sides.
5. Periyakulam (Theni district)
One of the big questions before the DMK alliance is whether the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, the most crucial Dalit ally, is weakening. This election is as much a test for the charismatic Member of Parliament and VCK Chief Thol Thirumavalavan. Is his persona and party weakening among the Dalit youth, and are they gravitating towards Vijay's TVK? This is an existential question for the VCK that this election will answer.
The VCK has largely been confined to northern Tamil Nadu, but this time it has consciously chosen to contest the Periyakulam seat bordering Madurai and Theni districts. The region is symbolic of caste battles against oppression from the OBC Thevar caste and the Dalit rights movement in the state. The VCK has fielded its high-profile leader and Deputy General Secretary Aatral Arasu (alias Shakthivel) to face off with former AIADMK MLA, now with TTV Dhinakaran's AMMK, Dr Kathirkamu.
Periyakulam is TTV Dhinakaran's region of influence; he is from the OBC Thevar caste, and this seat will test both caste faultlines, the VCK's ability to assert its identity with the DMK's backing, and the hold the AMMK and AIADMK can have together.
6. Thiruparankundram (Madurai district)
This is not just about the Deepam row; this seat is important because the contest here will test how much the AIADMK will be tested by the TVK in what has been a traditional AIADMK bastion. The incumbent AIADMK MLA VV Rajan Chellappa is fighting TVK's Deputy General Secretary CTR Nirmal Kumar, who was earlier with the BJP and the AIADMK, and Krithika Thangapandian. The fourth corner here is the NTK's Prof Sathia Devi.
This is a high-stakes battle for the AIADMK. The incumbent MLA's son is a US returnee and head of the party's IT wing. He's seen as a key next-generation AIADMK backroom manager, and this seat will test his abilities to run a campaign against a seasoned TVK candidate, a locally influential DMK woman candidate, and a highly educated NTK candidate.
The results here will show the dominance the AIADMK can maintain in its southern bastion seats. A breach here could reflect the impact the TVK has on the AIADMK vote share, whether the Deepam issue has led to a counter-consolidation of the minorities, and whether it's had an overall appeal in an urban and semi-urban constituency.
7. Madurai (Central)
This is an extremely interesting battle where one of the DMK's most adored national media faces and minister P Thiagarajan (PTR) is fighting against the noted Tamil film director C Sundar. Sundar, who is a BJP spokesperson and noted actor Kushboo's husband, is contesting as the NDA candidate from the small caste-based party, the Puthiya Neethi Katchi. NTK and TVK have both fielded Muslim candidates, and this seat will test the DMK's hold over the minorities, the TVK impact in an urban seat in south Tamil Nadu, the strength of local-level anti-incumbency against high-profile MLAs, and the caste arithmetic.
This will be a very interesting battle to watch, not just because of the charismatic PTR and the famous C Sundar, but because this will reflect the urban trend in South Tamil Nadu and caste arithmetic in a highly complex seat with a diverse social reality.
(The author is Executive Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
