Amid uncertainty over C Joseph Vijay's oath-taking as Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu and forming the state's first coalition government since 1952, the saga of cobbling together the numbers and staking his claim is filled with conniving conspiracies, desperate manoeuvres to keep the actor-turned-politician out, gubernatorial delays in the swearing-in, and a level of political uncertainty the state has never witnessed. It exposes the two Dravidian parties, the way the Vijay verdict has shaken up Tamil Nadu politics, the opportunism that drives politics, and TVK's inexperience in handling such situations.
Back in 2006, when former Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa formed an alliance with MDMK chief Vaiko, she told waiting reporters that "there are no permanent friends or allies in politics." Surely, she would not have expected her party's future leadership to take her words so literally as to explore an alliance with the DMK.
Over the last 48 hours, Chennai was abuzz with reports that the DMK and AIADMK were in talks to work out an arrangement to keep Vijay out of power, with the BJP allegedly facilitating it by delaying his swearing-in. DMK and AIADMK sources confirmed that back-channel proposals were seriously considered. One proposal was to install an Edappadi Palaniswami government, offering cabinet berths to the DMK's allies such as the Left and VCK, with DMK support from outside.
This idea was reportedly pushed by younger leaders and those close to Udhayanidhi Stalin. However, senior DMK leader and parliamentary party chief Kanimozhi Karunanidhi led the charge to thwart any such effort and even threatened to leave the party if it proceeded with the experiment, claim sources. However, there is still a strong push for keeping the TVK out of power.
It will be a travesty of the people's mandate for Vijay and an indelible blot on the state's polity if such an experiment succeeds. Even if not now, it remains a constant threat in play as uncertainty continues over Vijay's swearing in.
Sources say the DMK has a hold on the VCK and IUML and could pull the plug at any point of time, even if Vijay is allowed to take oath.
In fact, the TVK's firm warning that all its MLAs would resign if any effort was made to keep it out of power also showed it was not buckling under pressure and was an effort to force other parties to fall in line.
While the Left has stuck with support for the TVK, the VCK is still playing hardball and has not given a letter of support. It is apparently bargaining for a Deputy Chief Minister post for Thol Thirumavalavan! A party with just 2 MLAs keeping one with 108 MLAs hostage -- a first for Tamil Nadu.
The mere fact that the AIADMK and DMK could even explore an alliance is flabbergasting and perhaps foretells the times to come in a state that has only seen two-party decisive mandates in its history.
Yes, the DMK and AIADMK share ideological roots, but it is hard for any observer of Tamil politics to have imagined a day when the Two Leaves and the Rising Sun could ally with each other.
The reason for this tectonic shift is that Tamil Nadu has moved from a two-way fight to a genuine three-party verdict. This may be the new reality for a state unaccustomed to such political uncertainty.
The TVK, DMK, and AIADMK are now the three poles. Until the TVK decimates either the AIADMK or the DMK -- or the other two finish off the TVK -- Tamil Nadu may have to get used to such uncertainty.
To reiterate the numbers: The TVK has 108 seats (effectively 107, as Vijay has won two). The Congress has 5 MLAs, the two Left parties have 4 each, and the VCK has 2. This takes the alliance to 118 - an absolute majority. On the other hand, the DMK has 59 and the AIADMK has 47. If all the smaller pre-poll allies, including the Left and VCK, stay where they are, then the DMK-AIADMK alliance can also show an absolute majority of 120 without the Congress and the BJP.
All parties were taken aback by this verdict in Tamil Nadu, as a three-way fight resulted in a hung verdict. The speed and manner in which the TVK formed an alliance with the Congress also startled the BJP, which had preferred the TVK to align with the AIADMK. Its sole objective is to keep the Congress out of power.
Vijay has also been cold toward the AIADMK and showed no interest in an alliance with the Two Leaves. This was because he felt it would be easier to manage smaller parties than a large ally - and also because the AIADMK is now a BJP ally.
Similarly, the PMK, with its four MLAs, was an option, but it refused to break ties with the BJP, a precondition for any alliance with Vijay, who is aligned with the Congress.
Vijay's immediate decision to ally with the Congress, and the manner in which the Congress abandoned the DMK, ruffled many feathers. This move sparked talks between the two Dravidian parties. The situation was further accelerated by the delay in the swearing-in ceremony, which is widely seen as orchestrated by the BJP.
Each side had its own reasons.
For Edappadi Palaniswami, it is a matter of political survival and perhaps his last shot at power - he has the most at stake. The DMK fears that a Vijay-led government could become like MGR's - a chief ministership for life - and believes now is the only time to stop him.
For the BJP, the goal remains simple: keeping the Congress out of power. What this means is that Tamil Nadu's polity will remain in a state of flux in the short term. It is a fractured mandate, but, ironically, one with a clear winner in Vijay. The fact that he is struggling to cobble together the 118 seats needed shows both his inability in building a coalition and the determination of every established force to keep him out.
The road ahead will be uncertain, as the DMK retains a strong hold over parties like the VCK, the Left, and even the Congress at the local level. Vijay's strategy appears to be to assume power, run the government for a few months, and then call for mid-term polls, hoping to sweep the election and return with a clear mandate. This has turned the situation into a battle for survival for both Dravidian parties and the smaller regional players.
Clearly, a new chapter in Tamil Nadu politics has unfolded. Whether it will be a long one or last only a few months will depend on how Vijay, the DMK, the AIADMK, and the MLAs play their cards.
