Kerala Leadership Issue Resolved, Congress' Next Challenge: Karnataka

As the Congress high command puts behind the whirlwind government formation in Kerala and the selection of the new Chief Minister amid intense lobbying and internal pressure, the political challenge in neighbouring Karnataka is back in focus.

The simmering leadership tussle within the Karnataka Congress, which had temporarily been pushed to the backburner late last year as the party concentrated its faculties on the four states and a Union Territory going to polls, is once again expected to return to the forefront of internal discussions.

A major flashpoint had been reached in November, when intense speculation over a possible leadership transition had triggered political uncertainty within the state unit. At the time, the Congress high command managed to stall the crisis without arriving at a definitive resolution.

Now, with the Kerala conundrum largely settled, attention within the party has shifted back to Karnataka, where the political battle between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar appears set to intensify once again.

Photo Credit: PTI

While Siddaramaiah has been pushing for a cabinet reshuffle and the filling up of vacant ministerial positions, Shivakumar continues to nurture ambitions of taking over as chief minister during the current term.

Within Congress circles, there is growing belief that a cabinet reshuffle at this stage could potentially weaken Shivakumar's hopes of a leadership transition, especially if Siddaramaiah succeeds in consolidating his hold over the administration and the legislature party.

At the same time, the Siddaramaiah camp is believed to be playing the waiting game, while the Shivakumar camp has been actively reminding the Congress leadership about the alleged power-sharing understanding reached earlier.

Adding further pressure on the party leadership is the growing lobbying by several Congress MLAs aspiring for ministerial berths in the event of a cabinet expansion or reshuffle.

Over the next few days, the Congress high command is expected to closely monitor political developments in Karnataka to ensure stability and smooth functioning of the government.

Fuelling fresh speculation are posters that have appeared outside the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee office and in several parts of the state, wishing Shivakumar on his birthday, with some posters referring to him as the "next Chief Minister of Karnataka". In Mysuru, supporters of Shivakumar also cut a birthday cake portraying him as the next chief minister.

What Siddaramaiah Wants

• Reshuffle the cabinet
• Make way for new MLAs in the cabinet
• Fill vacant ministerial posts
• Solidify his position as Chief Minister
• He stands to gain politically even if the leadership decision is deferred
• Delay any leadership topic again till the Greater Bengaluru Authority (GBA) and local body elections.

What DK Shivakumar Wants

• Recognition and reward for the Congress party's record Assembly victory under his leadership as KPCC chief
• Enough time as Chief Minister during this term to establish his leadership credentials
• A new cabinet under his leadership
• Willingness to relinquish the KPCC president post if elevated
• The Congress high command to honour the alleged "promise" on power-sharing.

For the Congress high command, delaying a final decision had so far emerged as the safest political strategy. However, with competing camps continuing to exert pressure and political signalling becoming increasingly public, the space for indefinite stalling appears to be shrinking.

Any decision, whether in favour of continuity under Siddaramaiah or a transition to DK Shivakumar, is expected to trigger political blowback from one faction or the other.