- The Congress-led UDF is projected to return to power in Kerala, predicts Axis My India exit poll
- If the prediction holds true, it would signal the end of the decade-long rule of Pinarayi Vijayan
- Majority mark for Kerala assembly is set at 71 seats in the 140-member house
The Congress-led United Democratic Front, or the UDF, was the favourite from the get-go. The Axis My India exit poll has predicted a comeback for the UDF in Kerala, or Keralam as the state was recently rechristened, thumping Pinarayi Vijayan's Left Democratic Front, or the UDF.
The UDF is projected to win anywhere between 78-90 seats, while the LDF is expected to win anywhere between 49-62 seats, predicts the Axis My India poll. The majority mark stands at 71.
The votes for the 140-member Assembly will be counted on May 4 along with Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry.
If the projections hold true, it will be a huge steback for the Left movement across the country as it is set to lose its last red bastion. They earlier lost West Bengal and then Tripura a few years later.
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The BJP is projected to win between 0-3 seats.
Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong.
Three other exit polls have predicted a win for the UDF. Peoples Pulse has predicted 75-85 seats for the UDF. Vote Vibe has predicted 70-80 seats for the UDF, while Peoples Insight has predicted 66-76 seats for the UDF.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when votes were counted, the LDF managed to secure just one of the 20 seats in the state. This was followed by a series of by-elections in which, barring one constituency, the rest were won convincingly by the UDF, suggesting a strong anti-incumbency against the ruling government.
78.27% of the electorate turned up to vote on April 9. The turnout is close to the highest in the state.
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Among the 24,419 people interviewed for the analysis by the poll agency, 51% were male voters and 41% were women.
In 2021 Assembly polls, the Left Democratic Front won 99 seats, while the UDF won 41, and the National Democratic Front failed to open its account.
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Kerala, known for its seesaw politics, has been alternating between the LDF and the UDF.
The seesaw trend of the state was broken in 2021, when the electorate returned the Pinarayi Vijayan-led government for a second consecutive term.
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