Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Bitcoin is consolidating near the $63,000 level after failing to sustain a move above the $64,500 resistance. Early signs suggest selling pressure may be easing, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording a second consecutive day of net inflows totaling $265 million. On-chain data also points to a potential market bottom, with more than 50% of Bitcoin's circulating supply currently held at a loss. Historically, similar conditions have marked the final stages of bear markets, preceding major bottoms in 2017, 2018, and 2022. While history does not guarantee a repeat, it indicates improving long-term risk-reward. For now, $64,700 remains the key resistance, while support has strengthened near $61,600.

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The Thesis

With US airstrikes on Iran resuming - Brent settled +3% at $74.16 and is spiking toward $76 overnight - InvestorAi's top picks are built around domestic insulation from crude risk. The concentrated view bets on consumption defensiveness, a digital talent marketplace immune to oil pass-through, and auto supply chain diversification that accelerates as geopolitical risk deepens the de-China OEM sourcing shift. A US chip sell-off (Nasdaq −1.16%, Samsung/DeepSeek) sharpens the case for India-driven earnings.

Where We're Concentrated

Two domestic pillars anchor the portfolio. Consumer staples and premium retail - ITC's pricing power and TRENT's fast-fashion engine - draw on demand curves that geopolitics cannot disrupt. Digital hiring infrastructure - NAUKRI monetises India's tech recruitment cycle independent of energy costs. MOTHERSON is the lone global bet, with OEM order books locked in through de-China supply chain deepening. What breaks this: Brent above $78, forcing RBI into rupee defence near ₹96 and turning the low-VIX tailwind for financials into a headwind.

Conviction Picks

Highest Conviction

Samvardhana Motherson International

India's auto supply chain deepens as global OEMs seek non-China sourcing; firm order books absorb near-term crude cost pressures.

Info Edge (Naukri)

Hiring platform benefits as Indian tech hiring expands; digital revenues stay insulated from crude-driven macro volatility.

ITC

Pricing power in cigarettes and packaged foods shields margins as crude rises; defensive character buffers FII risk-off flows.

IndusInd Bank

Domestic credit cycle intact; low VIX supports sector rotation into rate-sensitive financials as RBI's easing cycle continues.

Trent

Zudio and Westside momentum holds as urban discretionary spending stays firm against the crude-driven sentiment shock.

One Thing to Watch

Brent breaking $78 would confirm Strait of Hormuz disruption is structural - expect RBI dollar sales near ₹96 and FII rotation out of rate-sensitive financials to follow.

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 closed marginally lower on Tuesday, slipping 31.65 points to settle at 24,398.70, as early gains fizzled out amid profit booking in the latter half of the session. Strength in IT heavyweights, led by HCLTech, Tech Mahindra and Infosys, was offset by weakness across realty, metals, energy and pharma, resulting in mixed market breadth and keeping the benchmark below the 24,400 mark.

Global cues have turned less supportive. Wall Street ended lower overnight, with technology stocks leading the decline after a sharp sell-off in semiconductor names following Samsung's earnings update and reports of DeepSeek developing its own AI chip. Asian markets are mirroring the weakness, while Brent crude has edged higher to around $75 per barrel after renewed geopolitical tensions near the Strait of Hormuz, although expectations of adequate OPEC+ supply continue to limit the upside.

GIFT Nifty indicates a weak start, suggesting a gap-down opening of nearly 160 points. Technically, the near-term bias remains cautious as long as the Nifty trades below the 24,450 resistance zone. Immediate support is placed at 24,200, and a sustained breach could trigger a move towards the key psychological level of 24,000. On the upside, a decisive close above 24,450 would improve sentiment and pave the way for a recovery towards 24,600. Stability in crude oil prices and a rebound in global semiconductor stocks will be crucial in determining whether domestic equities can regain their footing after the expected weak opening.

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange

Crypto is trading in a risk-off range, not a confirmed breakdown yet. Bitcoin faced supply near the 4H 200 EMA around $63,850-$64,000, making this the first resistance zone for traders. On the downside, $62,000-$62,300 remains the key support. A 4H close above $64,000 can open a move toward $65,200-$66,400, while a break below $62,000 can drag BTC toward $61,200.

Ethereum looks relatively stronger, but the move has slowed near $1,780-$1,800. ETH must hold $1,727-$1,740 to keep the recovery structure valid. A breakout above $1,800 can shift focus to $1,820-$1,850.

Macro is still controlling sentiment. Rising crude, a stronger dollar and geopolitical risk are keeping traders cautious across crypto, equities and commodities. Gold has also stayed range-bound, as dollar strength is limiting safe-haven buying. For XAUT, $4,180-$4,200 is the breakout zone, while a move below $4,065 can extend downside. Overall, the market is stable but defensive.

BTC climbed upto $64K, wiping out longs at the bottom and shorts at the top before stalling. The rally hit heavy resistance and limited momentum on the 4-hour and daily charts, hinting the move is running out of steam. Investors can see $61K as support if price slips. A clean close above $64,650 flips it bullish, targeting $65,600 then $67,000. Until then, one more dip looks more likely than a breakout.

Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder & CEO, Pi42

"Bitcoin has remained resilient above the $60,000 mark despite geopolitical tensions, ETF outflows, and a softer first half of the year. The market's ability to hold key levels amid multiple headwinds suggests that selling pressure is gradually becoming more measured, even as investors continue to adopt a cautious stance.

One of the more notable developments is the decline in open interest, indicating that the recent market consolidation is being accompanied by a reduction in leveraged positions. This creates a healthier market structure, where future price movements are more likely to be driven by genuine demand rather than speculative excess. At the same time, the current environment is increasingly being viewed as an opportunity for disciplined accumulation through a dollar-cost averaging approach rather than attempts to time short-term market swings.

Looking ahead, the combination of moderating inflation expectations and a more balanced derivatives market could provide a firmer foundation for sentiment to improve. While volatility is likely to remain part of the journey, a recovery supported by steady capital deployment and organic participation would be significantly more sustainable than one fuelled by leverage alone.

For investors, the emphasis should be on consistency rather than precision. Building exposure gradually during periods of consolidation has historically proven to be a more resilient strategy than trying to predict exact market tops and bottoms, particularly in an asset class where sentiment can shift rapidly."

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin traded near $62,800 on July 8, giving back part of its recent recovery after briefly pushing above $64,000 earlier this week. CoinMarketCap showed BTC at about $62,816, down 1.43% over 24 hours, with trading volume near $31.6 billion. The broader crypto market also softened, with Bitcoin dominance holding around 58%. This suggests investors remain cautious rather than aggressively rotating into altcoins.

Technically, Bitcoin is still defending its recovery structure, but confirmation is missing. Immediate support lies near $62,600-$62,700, followed by the more important $60,000-$61,000 zone. A clean break below $60,000 would weaken sentiment and could invite renewed selling. On the upside, BTC needs to reclaim $64,400 first, followed by the $65,000-$67,000 resistance band. A daily close above this range would improve the case for a stronger rebound.

On-chain signals are mixed. CoinDesk, citing Glassnode, reported that long-term holders have shifted back to net accumulation, adding roughly 50,000-100,000 BTC on a net basis. Smaller and mid-sized wallets are leading the buying, while the largest whale cohort remains closer to neutral. At the same time, CryptoQuant data cited by CoinMarketCap showed Bitcoin exchange deposits rising to nearly 49,000 BTC on June 30. Such a sharp increase is rare. Historically, similar spikes have often been followed by higher market volatility.

ETF flows remain uneven. Farside Investors' latest completed table showed U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $33.3 million on July 7, after a $265.7 million inflow on July 6. July 8 flows were not final at the time of review.

Macro remains the key risk. Reuters reported that traders see only about a 30% chance of a July Fed rate hike, but an 80% probability of a hike by September. The June U.S. CPI print on July 14 and the July 28-29 FOMC meeting will be closely watched.

Among top non-stablecoin altcoins, Ethereum traded near $1,750, BNB around $570, XRP near $1.10, Solana near $79, and TRON around $0.330. TRON was the relative outperformer, while ETH, XRP and SOL remained under daily pressure.

Our advice: Bitcoin's recovery remains constructive above $60,000, but not decisive. Investors should avoid chasing sharp intraday moves until ETF demand turns consistent and BTC closes above the $65,000-$67,000 resistance zone.

Nischal Shetty, founder, WazirX

"Bitcoin is trading near $62.9K, with the one-day technical outlook indicating a cautious short-term trend. Moving averages remain conservative, while momentum indicators remain largely neutral, suggesting the market is consolidating as traders await the next major catalyst.

Ethereum is trading around $1,755, with technical indicators also pointing to a consolidating market. Futures traders are closely watching the $1,720 to $1,740 support zone and the $1,790 to $1,820 resistance range. A sustained move above resistance could encourage fresh buying momentum, while a move below support may increase short-term selling pressure.

Institutional activity remained active, with a whale depositing 8,000 ETH into Aave, reflecting continued activity across DeFi lending platforms.

Meanwhile, spot Solana ETFs recorded $167.2 million in net inflows during the latest reported session, marking one of their strongest daily inflow performances to date and suggesting continued demand for regulated SOL investment products."

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At the close on Tuesday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,80,20,223.