Akshat Siddhant, Lead Quant Analyst, Mudrex

Gold climbed to around $4,170 per ounce on Friday, its highest level since June 23, recording over 2% weekly gain after four straight weeks of declines. The rally was driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data, which reduced expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike and boosted demand for non-yielding assets. Silver also remained firm, extending last week's gains. Meanwhile, crude oil traded near $68 per barrel, its lowest level since late February, as expectations of higher OPEC+ output eased supply concerns. Investors are now focused on the minutes from the Fed's June 16-17 meeting, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, for fresh clues on the policy outlook.

BTC is holding around $63K, near its highest level in two weeks after a modest weekend bounce. But it's been stuck below this level for weeks, so the real test is whether it can stay above it. A few things could move the price this week. First, the Fed releases its meeting notes on Wednesday, if they signal higher interest rates, BTC could come under pressure. Second, BTC ETFs saw their first positive inflow on Thursday after a while, so it will be important to see how they hold up through the week. The mood is still cautious, and Wednesday's Fed news is the one to watch.

Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX

Weekly update: Global markets ended the week on a more optimistic note as weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data eased concerns around further interest rate hikes. The prospect of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy helped improve sentiment across risk assets, allowing Bitcoin to recover above the $60,000 mark, while Ethereum also benefited from renewed institutional interest as spot ETFs recorded fresh inflows.

Despite the recovery, the broader macro environment remains mixed. Investors continue to monitor inflation, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, energy prices and ETF flows, all of which are expected to influence capital allocation in the coming weeks. At the same time, growing optimism around AI-driven productivity gains is strengthening expectations that central banks could eventually adopt a less restrictive monetary stance, providing additional support for risk assets.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin continues to hold the $60,000-$61,000 support zone, with $63,000-$64,000 emerging as the next key resistance. For Ethereum, traders are watching $1,650-$1,680 as immediate support, while $1,750-$1,800 remains the next major resistance area. A sustained move above these levels could strengthen bullish momentum, while failure to hold support may result in further consolidation.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin has started July on a firmer footing after recovering from last week's slide, but the rebound should not be mistaken for a decisive change in trend. The world's largest cryptocurrency is trading near $63,300, around 8% above its recent low near $58,000. The recovery has been aided by improved risk sentiment following softer US labour market data and some short covering in derivatives markets rather than a broad resurgence in institutional demand. 

Technically, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $63,000 mark, but the market is still approaching a crucial resistance zone between $63,800 and $64,000. A sustained move above this region could open the door towards $65,000. On the downside, immediate support lies around $62,400-62,500, followed by the psychologically important $60,000 level, which has repeatedly attracted buyers during the recent correction. The market remains range-bound until one of these levels is convincingly breached. 

On-chain valuation metrics suggest that Bitcoin is no longer trading at the stretched levels seen late last year. CryptoQuant's MVRV ratio has fallen to around 1.13 from 2.19 during the fourth quarter of 2025. In practical terms, that means the average Bitcoin holder is sitting on an unrealised gain of only about 13%, compared with well over 100% during the previous rally. Historically, periods when MVRV falls close to 1.0 have coincided with markets approaching fair value, where speculative excess has largely been flushed out and long-term investors begin accumulating again rather than taking profits. Bitcoin's realised price of about $53,400 reinforces that view. With the spot price near $63,300, the market is trading only 18-19% above the average on-chain acquisition cost of all coins. That is far less stretched than previous cycle peaks and suggests that the current rally is being built on a healthier valuation base. 

Institutional flows remain the market's biggest concern. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded persistent withdrawals through the final week of June, including daily net outflows of $444.5 million, $231 million, $222.6 million and $296 million before reversing with a modest $223.5 million inflow on July 2. While that positive session broke a prolonged outflow streak, it does not yet offset June's heavy institutional selling. The direction of ETF flows over the coming weeks will likely determine whether Bitcoin can build on the current recovery. 

Investors should also prepare for another macro-heavy fortnight. The release of the Federal Reserve minutes on July 8, followed by the US CPI inflation report on July 14, Producer Price Index on July 15, and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 28-29, could significantly influence expectations for US interest rates. Crypto markets have become increasingly sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations, making these events particularly important for directional moves during July. 

Among the major altcoins, sentiment has improved alongside Bitcoin. Ethereum is trading near $1,780, BNB around $586, XRP near $1.14, Solana close to $81, and TRON around $0.33. Most large-cap altcoins have registered modest gains over the past 24 hours, suggesting that the recovery is broad-based rather than confined to Bitcoin. However, altcoins continue to underperform their previous cycle highs, indicating that investors remain selective despite the recent bounce. 

Our advice: The broader market remains caught between improving short-term momentum and cautious institutional positioning. Until ETF flows show sustained improvement and macroeconomic uncertainty begins to ease, rallies are likely to face selling pressure near resistance. Investors would be better served by focusing on disciplined accumulation around key support levels rather than chasing sharp intraday moves.

Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder & CEO, Pi42

Bitcoin's rebound above the $63,000 mark indicates that buyers are gradually regaining confidence after an extended period of selling pressure. The recovery from key support levels suggests that market participants are positioning themselves ahead of important macro developments, including the upcoming FOMC minutes and continued progress on crypto regulation in the US. While the near term direction will depend on how these events shape liquidity expectations and institutional participation, the current price action points to improving market sentiment rather than a one-day bounce.

For traders, this is a time to stay disciplined rather than chase sharp upward moves. Accumulating gradually on pullbacks, maintaining prudent position sizing, and closely tracking support and resistance levels can help navigate the next phase of the market. Confirmation of sustained buying volumes and a decisive move above immediate resistance would provide greater confidence that Bitcoin is entering a stronger recovery phase.

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 extended its winning streak on Friday, gaining 95 points (0.39%) to close at 24,270.85, supported by renewed strength in IT heavyweights after HCL Technologies surged nearly 6% on the back of a large AI-led transformation deal. The resilience in technology stocks helped offset weakness in financials, aviation and select consumer names, allowing the benchmark to end near its highest levels.

Global cues remain mixed. While the Dow Jones scaled fresh record highs after softer-than-expected US jobs data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold, weakness in semiconductor stocks dragged the Nasdaq lower, keeping sentiment toward technology stocks selective. Asian markets have started the week on a cautious note, reflecting this divergence.

For India, the macro backdrop continues to improve. Brent crude has eased towards the $72 per barrel mark amid expectations of higher OPEC+ supply and normalisation of geopolitical risks, which should support India's inflation and external balance. Meanwhile, GIFT Nifty indicates a positive start, pointing to an opening gain of around 80 points.

From a technical perspective, the trend remains constructive as long as the Nifty sustains above the 24,150 breakout zone, which now serves as immediate support. A sustained move above 24,400 could pave the way towards 24,600, while a breach below 24,150 may trigger profit booking towards the 24,000 mark. Overall, the medium-term bias remains positive, although volatility in global technology stocks could limit the pace of the rally.

Sensex opens 208 points higher, Nifty gains 37 amid mixed global market cues.

Rupee falls 9 paise to 95.27 against US dollar in early trade

Oil prices inched lower on Monday after OPEC+ agreed to further increase its output targets from August while exports from key producers via the Strait of Hormuz are recovering, potentially adding to global supplies.

Brent crude futures slid 24 cents, or 0.33%, to $71.88 a barrel.

Asian markets traded mixed on Monday as investors positioned themselves ahead of the release of minutes from the US Federal Reserve's June policy meet.

South Korea's Kospi rose 1.08%, outperforming regional peers. Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped 0.25%, while Australia's ASX 200 edged 0.08% lower.

The Indian stock market extended gains on Friday, with the Sensex and Nifty rising more than 0.3% each.

The Sensex gained around 262 points to close at 77,764, while the Nifty 50 rose more than 95 points to end the session above 24,270.

The combined market valuation of six of India's 10 most-valued companies rose by more than Rs 1 lakh crore last week.

Among the top gainers, Bharti Airtel recorded the biggest increase in market valuation, with its market capitalisation rising by Rs 36,529.21 crore to Rs 11,63,877.30 crore. Bajaj Finance followed with an addition of Rs 33,059.83 crore, taking its valuation to Rs 6,43,141.36 crore.

ICICI Bank also posted a strong performance, with its market capitalisation increasing by Rs 16,084.29 crore to Rs 10,11,695.03 crore. Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) added Rs 8,601.99 crore, taking its valuation to Rs 5,44,139.55 crore.

HDFC Bank's market capitalisation rose by Rs 7,664.89 crore to Rs 12,33,646.33 crore, while Hindustan Unilever added Rs 6,461.38 crore, taking its valuation to Rs 5,17,086.30 crore.