Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder & CEO, Pi42

"Bitcoin, currently trading around the $63,500 mark, has come under pressure as expectations of a prolonged higher interest rate environment in the US continue to weigh on market sentiment. The pause in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows after an extended streak has also prompted participants to reassess near-term positioning, while Ethereum has cooled ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision and XRP continues to trade within a range as investors await a stronger directional trigger. Despite the short-term weakness, institutional interest in digital assets remains intact, suggesting that the broader market continues to be driven by macroeconomic cues rather than any structural deterioration in the crypto ecosystem.

For investors, this is a phase that calls for patience and discipline rather than reactive decision-making. Instead of chasing short-term price movements, the focus should remain on staggered allocations, diversification and closely tracking macroeconomic developments that are influencing global liquidity. Quality assets with strong fundamentals are likely to remain better positioned once market sentiment stabilises, making this an opportunity to stay committed to a long-term investment strategy." 

The Thesis

The system is rotating into domestic quality cyclicals - IT outsourcing, consumer platforms, and 2-wheelers - just as Brent breaks below $88 and India VIX collapses below 12.5. Both FII and DII are net buyers, signalling institutional consensus, not reactive positioning. The live risk is the Fed's July 29 decision: a hold validates the EM-flow thesis; a surprise hike compresses it fast.

Where We're Concentrated

Concentration sits in two interlocked themes: IT and services recovery (Nifty IT +3.2% on Tuesday, its sharpest session in months) alongside India consumer resilience - food delivery, two-wheelers, premium jewellery. Manappuram Finance is the uncorrelated income anchor: gold prices, elevated by safe-haven demand from Japan's 7.1-magnitude earthquake and the ongoing Hormuz stand-off, widen lending spreads. Thesis breaks on a hawkish Fed or a Houthi escalation that pushes Brent back above $95.

Conviction Picks

Highest Conviction

Tech Mahindra

IT sector's sharpest one-day gain in months; S&P 500 above 7,400 and a likely Fed hold anchors outsourcing budgets.

Eternal Limited

Brent's steady retreat below $88 deflates delivery logistics costs; low VIX unlocks consumer discretionary spend.

Bajaj Auto

Softening crude eases import component costs; rupee's RBI-backed recovery above 96 supports two-wheeler export earnings.

Manappuram Finance

Elevated gold prices amplify collateral values; India's rural NBFC credit demand accelerates as macro headwinds recede.

Titan Company

Consumer Durables gained 1% Tuesday on gold-driven jewellery demand; discretionary wallets hold firm in a low-VIX environment.

One Thing to Watch

Fed decision at 2 PM ET today. A hawkish surprise compresses EM flows and strengthens the dollar - watch Nifty 500 below 23,000 as the first stress signal; a hold keeps the risk-on rotation intact.

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Bitcoin is consolidating around the $63,700 level after briefly falling to a 10-day low near $63,000, as a sharp sell-off in Asian semiconductor stocks spilled over into Wall Street and the crypto market. The decline triggered more than $510 million in liquidations, while continued outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs further weakened investor sentiment. Moreover, the uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook continues to keep traders cautious. Despite the weakness, large investors continue to accumulate, with whale wallets adding 19,696 BTC over the past eight days. Bitcoin must reclaim $65,000 to regain bullish momentum, while $63,000 remains the key support level.

Departments have been told to ensure that unused or surplus vehicles remain in safe custody instead of being put to unofficial use. Read full report here

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 ended Tuesday almost unchanged at 23,985.35, slipping just 10.60 points after Monday's sharp rebound, reflecting a phase of consolidation. Sectoral performance remained mixed, with the Nifty IT index surging 3.3% on improved global technology sentiment, while FMCG, Energy and Bank Nifty declined 1.4%, 1.7% and 0.58%, respectively.

Market breadth remained weak, with declines outnumbering advances by 2,543 to 1,539, highlighting a cautious undertone beneath the headline index.

Global cues were mixed overnight. US equities ended on a divergent note as the Dow Jones advanced 537 points, supported by strong corporate earnings from Coca-Cola and Sherwin-Williams, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.22% for a fourth consecutive session amid continued weakness in semiconductor stocks. Asian markets, however, opened on a positive footing, with the Kospi gaining nearly 2% and the Nikkei trading marginally higher, recovering from the previous session's technology-led sell-off.

Meanwhile, Brent crude corrected more than 3% towards the USD 85 per barrel mark after easing geopolitical concerns in West Asia, offering some relief to inflation expectations. GIFT Nifty is indicating a strong start for domestic equities, suggesting a gap-up opening after adjusting for the August futures rollover.

Technically, the market bias remains constructive as long as the Nifty sustains above the 23,880 support zone. A decisive move above the 24,100-24,150 resistance band, which coincides with the 20-day moving average, could pave the way towards 24,400. On the downside, a breach below 23,880 may trigger profit booking towards 23,725. Investors will closely track the US Federal Reserve policy outcome and developments in crude oil prices, as both are likely to influence market direction in the near term.

Gaurav Udani, Founder - Thincredblu Securities "Market Opening Commentary"

Nifty is expected to open higher around 24,100, up nearly 120 points, indicating a positive start supported by favorable global cues.

The index is once again approaching the important 24,100-24,200 resistance zone, which will be crucial for the next directional move. A sustained breakout above this range could trigger fresh buying interest and extend the ongoing recovery.

On the downside, 23,900-24,000 will act as the immediate support zone, where buying interest is likely to emerge on any intraday decline.

While the opening bias is positive, traders should avoid chasing the gap-up and instead wait for confirmation above resistance before initiating fresh long positions.

The short-term trend remains constructive, and a buy on dips approach continues to be the preferred strategy as long as Nifty holds above the 23,900-24,000 support zone."

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange

Crypto markets are consolidating after the recent correction, with Bitcoin attempting to recover from key support while remaining below the $64,500-65,500 resistance zone. Ethereum is also rebounding, with immediate resistance at $1,945-1,970 and support around $1,865-1,880. Current price action reflects consolidation rather than a confirmed trend reversal, as traders await the next macro catalyst.

Precious metals are also trading in a narrow range. Gold is stabilising near support after recent selling pressure, while silver remains sensitive to movements in Treasury yields and expectations around industrial demand. Elevated crude oil prices continue to be monitored as they could keep inflation persistent and influence the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.

In U.S. equities, investor attention has shifted toward earnings from major technology companies after weakness in semiconductor stocks. Markets are reassessing AI-related capital expenditure, valuation multiples and corporate guidance rather than focusing solely on headline earnings.

The immediate direction across crypto, metals and equities will largely depend on the Federal Reserve's policy and the subsequent reaction in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. If the Fed maintains a cautious stance, markets may remain range-bound in the near term. However, any meaningful shift in policy guidance could drive the next directional move across global risk assets.

BTC briefly fell below $63K as a sharp sell-off in Asian equities and the Senate's delay of the CLARITY Act weighed on market sentiment, before recovering toward $64K. Near-term price action will likely be driven by the Fed's policy decision and commentary, alongside core PCE inflation, second-quarter GDP data and earnings from major technology companies. A rate hold accompanied by softer guidance and easing inflation could help BTC reclaim $65K and extend the recovery toward $68K-$70K. However, hawkish signals or stronger inflation data may keep volatility elevated and limit immediate upside.

Nischal Shetty, founder, WazirX

"The crypto market has entered a phase of heightened caution as investors reposition ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision. Bitcoin has retreated to around $63,785 after slipping below the $65,000 mark, while Ethereum is trading near $1,625. The decline has been driven by a combination of rising liquidation activity, softer institutional flows, and a broader risk-off sentiment that has weighed heavily on global technology stocks.

Markets have sharply repriced expectations for U.S. monetary policy, with the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike increasing materially over the past week. Although easing crude oil prices have helped moderate near-term inflation concerns and Treasury yields have eased slightly, financial conditions remain restrictive.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded modest net outflows, while Ethereum products continued to attract fresh inflows, indicating that institutional investors are becoming increasingly discerning rather than reducing exposure altogether.

For major altcoins, the tone remains cautious as broader risk sentiment continues to weigh on high-beta assets. XRP is holding above the psychologically important $1.05 level after a modest pullback. A sustained move above $1.10 could revive bullish momentum, while a break below $1.05 may invite fresh short positioning toward the $1.00 mark.

Solana is trading around $73.60 and remains under pressure after last week's decline. Futures traders should watch the $72 support closely, as losing that level could accelerate downside toward $70. On the upside, reclaiming $76-$78 would indicate buyers are returning and could trigger short covering.

Dogecoin continues to consolidate near $0.0707 with relatively muted volatility. The immediate support lies around $0.069, while resistance is seen near $0.073. A decisive breakout above resistance could attract momentum-driven long positions, whereas a move below support may increase selling pressure."

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin traded near $63,620 on Wednesday, gaining about 0.8% over 24 hours, as investors maintained cautious positions before the Federal Reserve's policy decision. The recovery remains modest after Bitcoin retreated from last week's local high near $66,700. Immediate support lies at $62,700-$63,000, followed by $62,000. Resistance is visible near $64,100, with the stronger $65,100-$66,700 zone likely to restrict further gains.

On-chain data show why Bitcoin continues to hold around $63,000 despite weaker institutional demand.The $63,000 area represents the market's strongest nearby demand zone, with the cost basis of roughly one-tenth of the circulating Bitcoin supply concentrated there. Meanwhile, the short-term holder cost basis near $69,000 remains the key breakeven level for recent buyers. If Bitcoin approaches this level from below, it could trigger additional selling pressure as investors look to exit at breakeven.

The broader market remains in cautious consolidation. Exchange liquidity has contracted and aggressive selling has eased, but derivatives traders are also showing less conviction. Perpetual futures buying has weakened, and funding costs for long positions have fallen sharply. Meanwhile, options markets are pricing in higher future volatility, even though the underlying asset has shown little price movement.

US spot Bitcoin ETF flows have reversed materially. Funds lost $225.1 million on July 23, $240.1 million on July 24 and $11.6 million on July 27, producing combined withdrawals of $476.8 million. July 28 showed a preliminary $5.1 million inflow. This reversal has substantially weakened the institutional support that drove the earlier recovery.

Large-cap altcoins were modestly higher. Ethereum gained 1.5% to $1,902, BNB rose 0.9% to $570, XRP advanced 1.4% to $1.07, Solana was almost unchanged at $73.23, and TRON added 0.2% to $0.324. The limited gains indicate selective participation rather than a broad altcoin rally.

The Fed decision is the immediate macro catalyst. Markets assign a 33% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, although most analysts expect rates to remain at 3.50%-3.75%. Renewed Middle East tensions, higher oil prices and a dollar index near 101.43 could encourage hawkish guidance even if rates are held.

Our advice: Investors should avoid taking large directional positions around the Fed decision. Staggered purchases, limited leverage and disciplined sizing remain preferable until Bitcoin either loses $62,700 or reclaims $66,700 with renewed ETF and spot demand.

Investors are advised to maintain records of crypto-to-crypto trades, staking rewards, airdrops and crypto used for purchasing goods or services. Read full report here

At the close on Tuesday, the total market cao of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,79,16,996.