Bihar will soon have a new chief minister. Nitish Kumar, the long-time chief minister of Bihar, is officially preparing to leave the CM post and get elected to the Rajya Sabha. Nitish, the leader of the Janata Dal (United), filed his nomination for the Rajya Sabha on March 5.
With BJP leading the government, JD(U) may be accommodated with two deputy chief minister positions as part of a power-sharing arrangement.
The change could usher in a new chief minister from the BJP, which is the dominant partner in the ruling NDA alliance in Bihar. Speculations are also rife that with Nitish's entry into the Upper House, his son Nishant Kumar is expected to make entry into politics and may be given an important position in the government.
In last November's Assembly election, the NDA won 202 of the 243 seats - the BJP was the largest party with 89 seats while the JD(U) got 85, a jump of 42 seats from the previous election. Nitish was the face of the election.
This is not merely another political shuffle - it could reshape the state's power equations dramatically and reshape party strategies at both state and national levels.
Several strategic and political factors appear to be driving this possibility.
Leadership transition
At 75, Nitish (celebrated his birthday on March 1) has been a dominant figure in Bihar politics for decades. Since Nitish has been unwell for a long time, this move has been on the cards. His shift to Rajya Sabha might reflect a planned succession strategy within JD(U) and the broader alliance.
Earlier, even within JD(U), there was a debate over who should be nominated to Rajya Sabha. Nitish and his close confidantes including leaders like Manish Verma (former bureaucrat, who belongs to the same caste Kurmi as Nitish) preferred son Nishant Kumar for Rajya Sabha. But Nishant reportedly wanted to pursue state politics.
This process was more than just a formal step; it's a potential inflection point towards intra-party power dynamics. There is still a section in the party which wants Nitish to continue as the CM.
Sources say that Nitish's son, Nishant Kumar entering active politics, possibly as deputy CM or in a growing leadership role could be part of a succession calculus inside JD(U). The JD(U) has been steered by its supremo, his son on the top post of the party would ensure its durability and survival. It could keep the flock together at least for the next 5 years with Nitish still around.
Nitish has a clean image and had kept his family away from politics hitherto unlike the RJD, Congress and other political parties in the state. Nitish has a unique governance model - a mix of development promises, lean social engineering, and strategic alliances (with both BJP and adversarial blocs at different times) - which has kept him politically relevant for years. Whether Nishant would be able to carry forward his father's political legacy and governance model given that he is a political rookie? Other political scions like RJD's (Rashtriya Janata Dal) Tejashwi Yadav and Union Minister Chirag Paswan (Lok Janshakti Party -Ram Vilas) have already cut their political teeth.
The NDA (National Democratic Alliance) - especially after its strong performance in assembly elections - may be recalibrating leadership roles to balance power between JD(U) and the BJP. A BJP chief minister could strengthen the alliance's cohesion and reflect its electoral weight.
BJP's strategic opportunity
From the vantage of the BJP, this could be a long-anticipated moment. Following the state elections, the BJP emerged as the single largest party in the assembly, even though the JD(U) has historically held the chief ministership. If Nitish vacates the CM post, the BJP - with its stronger seat count - naturally positions itself to stake a claim for the top job.
BJP is well-placed to push for its own leader as the chief minister. Given that, it now has most seats, this would be legitimate both constitutionally and politically. BJP sources said that the chief ministerial candidate from their party would either be from the Backward Class (27% of the population) or Extremely Backward Class (36%). Buzzing names are those of Samrat Choudhary, current deputy chief minister, Union Minister Nityanand Rai. Bihar minister Dilip Jaiswal, and Digha BJP MLA Sanjiv Chaurasia are also in the fray.
The recent precedent cases in Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh shows the BJP springing surprises in the choice of Chief Ministers. Bihar might continue this trend.
A first BJP CM in Bihar would redefine regional politics and assert the party's dominance, which has been growing but often operated in the shadow of JD(U)'s senior leadership. However, since EBC voted for NDA because of Nitish, BJP will have to make sure that there is no persistent betrayal mood tendency within the EBC.
Managing coalition partners (like JD(U) itself), avoiding alienation of key vote blocs, and dealing with opposition narratives about "power play" and "political opportunism" will require deft handling.
Shifting to Rajya Sabha gives Nitish a national legislative role, potentially boosting his influence on broader policymaking and alliance politics. Many senior leaders with long state tenures move to the Upper House to play bigger roles nationally. Given his health issues, how far Nitish would be able to perform the role, only time will tell.
For the RJD and other opposition parties, this is a moment to capitalise on internal realignments within the ruling coalition. They can paint the transition as a political manoeuvre rather than a governance decision, appealing to voters dissatisfied with incumbency fatigue. RJD may take the opportunity to intensify caste and development-centric campaigns, seeking to prise open dissent within JD(U)'s support base.
(The author is Contributing Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
