The power tussle between Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar (DKS), a watchful Kharge, and restless regional satraps has pushed the Congress high command to its toughest test, again - to settle the power equations in Karnataka. Here's a look at the demands, desires, and manoeuvres of the state's biggest power players - and why all roads now lead to Rahul Gandhi.
It's clear that the Congress high command and Rahul Gandhi have their task cut out. It's not going to be easy for Rahul Gandhi to bite the Karnataka bullet and balance the competing power circles.
A Message, An Acceptance: DKS's Demands
For Deputy Chief Minister DKS, the transfer of power from Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is not just a political aspiration - it is a long-promised moment he believes is overdue. His demands reflect both a quest for clarity and a need for stability within the party ranks. Below are the four key points DKS is pushing for, even if it's not an immediate transfer of power.
- A Clear Transition Plan: DKS wants the leadership to formalise and commit to a well-defined timeline that charts his eventual ascension to the Chief Minister's post.
- An Unambiguous Message to Siddaramaiah: He is seeking a firm directive from the high command conveying that Siddaramaiah will have to step down as part of the agreed handover.
- Siddaramaiah's Acceptance of the Transition In Letter and Spirit: To avoid friction and factional collapse, DKS is counting on the top leadership to secure Siddaramaiah's cooperation in ensuring a smooth handover of power.
- Support From Various Factions: Shivakumar knows well that he may not have the support of all the MLAs, though he has his staunch loyalists. This is why he wants the high command to rein in leaders like Satish Jarkiholi and other known detractors, ensuring they fall in line when the transition is effected - if it is.
Rahul's Assertion, Cabinet Reshuffle For Sidda
- Stability: Siddaramaiah, a veteran leader with his own loyal base, is focused on maintaining stability - and his authority - while resisting what he sees as pressure for change.
- Delay Any Transition Decision Until After the Budget: Siddaramaiah wants to retain the driver's seat until the state budget is presented, arguing that an upheaval before then would be disruptive. There is an impending session of the Karnataka assembly winter session due in December, and there is a sense that it will be difficult for the high command to effect any changes at this stage. This fits with Siddaramaiah's argument to delay, if not defer, a decision on a transition
- End The “Optics Of Uncertainty”: As long as he remains Chief Minister, Siddaramaiah wants the leadership to project clarity and decisiveness, putting a stop to speculation about his exit, till and if it happens. He is not even pushing for a post-transition plan, which he will consider if he agrees to a transition. In every sense, Siddaramaiah is unlikely to let go easily. How difficult he will make this exercise is a big worry for the high command. It's also clear that without his acceptance, it may be very difficult to upset the status quo. Siddaramaiah is seen to have a decisively larger number of MLAs in his support, who far outnumber DKS loyalists. Ultimately, however, it's the high command's writ that would decide the matter.
- A Strong Reassertion From Rahul Gandhi: Siddaramaiah is looking to Rahul Gandhi for a clear, public reiteration of his position - both to solidify his authority and calm his supporters. He is known to have a close equation with Rahul Gandhi ,and whatever was agreed upon between the two leaders in private would have a strong bearing on his strategy.
- A Cabinet Reshuffle To Reinforce His Command: Siddaramaiah has also been pushing for a reshuffle that would help him reassert control over the government while he remains in office. Rahul Gandhi is learnt to have communicated that any such reshuffle has to be effected only after the Congress President, both national and the state, are on board.
It's also time to see this power tussle as something well bigger than the Sidda-DKS binary. There are multiple other power equations and power players at play, including Mallikarjun Kharge. President of the All India Congress Committee (AICC) and Karnataka's senior-most Dalit leader, Kharge is rumored to be watching the situation closely. With speculation that he may be eyeing the Chief Minister's post himself, Kharge also represents a potential compromise candidate - especially given his proximity to DKS.
Then there's Satish Jarkiholi. Long seen as a critic of Shivakumar, he has ambitions of his own. Jarkiholi is said to be keen on becoming the state Congress president, an outcome that would significantly shift internal party equations.
G Parameshwara, another senior Dalit leader, has publicly declared his aspirations for the Chief Minister's post, adding yet another layer to the already complex calculus.
All Roads Lead To Rahul
As the Karnataka Congress navigates competing ambitions and political sensitivities, Rahul Gandhi's role as mediator and decision-maker becomes increasingly pivotal. The leadership's challenge will be to manage egos, preserve stability, and maintain the coalition of forces that delivered a strong electoral mandate - not an easy task in a state where power equations shift quickly.
Here are four questions that Rahul Gandhi and his party need to consider immediately: (i) Will there be a categorical decision on who will be the Chief Minister for the next two-and-a-half years? (ii) Was there a power transfer promised to DKS? (iii) If yes, will it be effected, and when? (iv) If not, will this claim be categorically refuted?
Let's not forget that a shift from Siddaramaiah isn't easy from the party's point of view, given the caste calculus. He's seen as the most powerful face of the 'AHINDA' political alignment, a formation that comprises major caste and religious blocs, aimed at challenging the domination of the Lingayat sect and the OBC Vokkaligas. DK Shivakumar is the face of the OBC Vokkaliga community, and the Congress cannot alienate this group.
So, ‘What next in Karnataka?' is not a question with any easy answers for the state, its politics, or even the Congress party.
(The author is Executive Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
