Will Mamata Banerjee Contest In Coming Bypolls? Bengal Calculates Her Chances

The coming by-elections for six seats have opened up room for fresh speculation in Bengal -- on whether former Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee will contest from one of them. Even in absence of any comment from Banerjee, it has become a talking point. 

Two seats from Bengal will be up for polls, due on October 6. The first is Rejinagar vacated by Humayun Kabir, who had also won from the Naoda constituency. There is also Nandigram - vacated by Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari who retained the Bhabanipur seat where he beat Banerjee this year. 

Many believe that given the BJP's rise in Bengal and the defections in Banerjee's Trinamool Congress, the party chief should lead the party from the front. To do that, it is essential to contest and ensure her seat in the assembly.

As an MLA, Banerjee, they point out, can effectively raise the issues dominating public discourse, serve as the Leader of the Opposition and help safeguard her party. 

While Banerjee is known as a mass leader, her presence in the House can make her more effective particularly regarding controversies -- such as the current debate over vegetarian-non-vegetarian fare for Durga Puja. Or the ongoing crackdown on small eateries and hotels in Kolkata over cleanliness. 

Statistics indicate that Nandigram could be the safer bet for the former Chief Minister, even though she lost to Adhikari there in the 2021 elections. Back then, Adhikari had defeated Banerjee by 1,956 votes. This time, he beat the Trinamool candidate by a margin of 9,665 votes.

Rejinagar - located in Murshidabad district within the Baharampur Lok Sabha constituency - many say, is best left to the Congress. 

But the constituency has a 65 per cent Muslim population and that could also work as an advantage for Banerjee should she choose to contest from here. 

Party insiders suggested that Banerjee should form an alliance with the Congress for the by-elections on these two seats. It could work better for Trinamool since this is an area where Congress's Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury has served as MP multiple times, they said.

State Congress chief Shubhankar Sarkar can contest from Nandigram since he is a local resident, they declare.

The big complication could be whether Banerjee's Trinamool Congress will retain the poll symbol of "twin flowers". Earlier, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party both lost their poll symbols and party name after a split when the other side claimed they were the real party. 

The faction led by Ritabrata Banerjee has already claimed that they are the "real Trinamool". Ritu Dutta, a leader of his faction, claimed, "We will contest both seats, and our candidate will get the party symbol".

"People are with Mamata Banerjee, and our candidate will certainly contest the election from there," said Trinamool Congress's Kunal Ghosh.

The BJP too said it intends to contest both seats. "Let Mamata Banerjee contest from both seats; we would enjoy defeating her again," said Sajal Ghosh.