The Bill That Could Have Stopped Raghav Chadha From Splitting The AAP

Raghav Chadha tried to stop Raghav Chadha from dealing Arvind Kejriwal a potential hammer blow last week, when he led six Aam Aadmi Party Rajya Sabha MPs into the arms of the Bharatiya Janata Party.

Chadha's "betrayal" left the AAP facing a numbers crisis - it lost seven of its 10 MPs - and a likely prolonged legal battle over the anti-defection law, i.e., the Tenth Schedule legislation that requires a two-third threshold from lawmakers jumping parties.

The two-thirds law, as it is called in practice, was designed to curb political defections motivated by office or power and outlines conditions under which lawmakers can switch parties. One of those conditions is the two-third threshold, i.e., the group of members looking to switch parties must number two-third of the House strength of the original party.

If that condition is met, members can't be disqualified, and they can either join the new party or function separately.

NDTV Explains | The 2/3rds: Chadha's AAP Split And An Anti-Defection Law

In the Chadha-AAP case that number was seven. Chadha + six made the cut.

And sources told NDTV Chadha - targeted by AAP leaders this month for soft-peddling or avoiding criticism of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party - could be made a union minister now that he has joined his new employers.

READ | Swati Maliwal, Harbhajan Singh: Raghav Chadha Names 7 Joining BJP

But it could have been different if, back in August 2022, the first bill he proposed as a Rajya Sabha MP was enacted.

Chadha suggested an amendment that increased the threshold to three-fourths and barred defecting MPs from contesting elections for the next six years. Had the bill been passed, the cut-off number would have been eight, i.e. Chadha + seven.

Would that have stopped this split?

Answers may exist in parallel universes, but what is certain is Chadha and the BJP would likely have thought twice (assuming an eighth defecting MP) about the 'can't contest in elections for six years' bit, and that could have saved the AAP.

Chadha's 3/4th bill

The Punjab MP spoke strongly against "nefarious floor crossing by legislators in total disregard of the democratic wishes of the electorate who returned them" when he presented his bill.

His proposal then was to amend aspects of the Constitution, including Article 102 that deals with grounds for disqualifying a MP or MLA, and to direct defecting lawmakers to appear before the House Chair within a week of withdrawing support.

The timing was key.

Association of Democratic Reforms data said over 100 MPs or MLAs joined the BJP from 2016 to 2021, including the Congress' Jyotiraditya Scindia. Scindia's switch brought down his ex-party's government and hobbled its long-term future.

In presenting his bill Chadha said he wanted to see "the prevention of horse-trading" of elected lawmakers and that tightening the Tenth Schedule would erase a "blot on our democracy".

What now for the AAP?

Kejriwal's party is less than 15 years old and now faces an uphilll battle to stay alive. The seven MPs' switch, assuming it is upheld (and recent similar defections suggest it will) drops its overall Parliament numbers to just six.

Raghav Chadha (L) with AAP boss and ex-Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal (File).

Party sources told NDTV there had been internal buzz regarding Chadha but there was no indication so many others would leave at once. Now, the AAP has said it will seek disqualification of thse seven but since the Rajya Sabha Chairman, party sources said, is likely to accept the merger request, the only apparent option will be to pursue legal action.

READ | Survival, Legal Fight, Punjab Battle: What Next After Chadha's AAP Split 

Chadha's jumping ship also opens the doors for other disgruntled AAP leaders, including its Delhi MLA Aaley Iqbal, which would be a double blow for the party before the Punjab election and its hopes to expand footprints in Gujarat.

What did Kejriwal say

Kejriwal had a one-line response;. "BJP has once again betrayed Punjabis," the ex-Delhi Chief Minister said on X.

The first signs of discord between the AAP and Chadha broke cover April 2 after Kejriwal sacked Chadha as the party's deputy leader in the Rajya Sabha. Sources close to Chadha told NDTV then the party wanted to 'silence him'.

READ | Arvind Kejriwal's First Reaction On Raghav Chadha's Switch To BJP

All of this plays out ahead of the election in Punjab next year, when the AAP government led by Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann will ask voters for a second term. Chadha is regarded as having played a key role in helping the AAP win the last election.

Chadha became AAP's face as its national spokesperson and regularly appeared on TV debates. He was appointed the party's national treasurer at 26. In the 2020 Delhi election, he was elected from Rajinder Nagar and was appointed the vice-chairman of the Delhi Jal Board. In 2022, he was named AAP's Rajya Sabha pick.