PM Modi vs Mamata Banerjee: BJP's Kaleidoscopic Strategy In The Bengal Battlefield

In the delicate dance of electoral politics, timing, narrative, and organisation are crucial for success. As the sun sets on the electoral battle in Bihar, the BJP - which appears to have perfected the art of anticipation - has started laying the groundwork for its next big performance: the West Bengal assembly elections of 2026. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sent a clear message to party cadres: West Bengal is the next major battleground. 

As PM Modi had metaphorically added, the Ganga that flows through Bihar also nourishes ambitions in Bengal. The announcement, cloaked in the urgency of the moment, reaffirms a fundamental tenet of the BJP's philosophy: The machinery of electioneering never truly halts. 

One election winds down only for another to gather speed, creating a whirlwind of political activity that can feel overwhelming yet exhilarating.

Mamata Navigates 15 Years of Fierce Anti-Incumbency
The big question: Can the Modi-led BJP beat the three-term incumbent Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress in 2026? In the sprawling tapestry of Indian politics, few figures loom as large or evoke as strong a mix of admiration and critique as Mamata Banerjee. 

Unlike the softness of her name, she appears a hardened, smart street fighter. In 2011, she single-handedly sent the CPM, which ruled Bengal consecutively for 34 years, packing. 

Banerjee embodies a unique blend of resilience, populism, and an unwavering connection to her roots. Like a maestro conducting a symphony of identities-Ma, Mati, Manush (Mother, Earth and Humanity)-Banerjee's refrain resonates deeply within the collective consciousness of Bengal, reinforcing her place as an indomitable force in the region for 15 years.

As the clock ticks down to the 2026 assembly elections, Banerjee finds herself confronting an electorate that is increasingly fatigued by unfulfilled promises and the disillusionment caused by scandals. 
At the heart of this turmoil lies a landscape marred by violence and despair. 

The BJP calls it Bengal's version of "Jungle Raj". 

Last year, on August 9, a 31-year-old postgraduate resident doctor of Kolkata's venerable RG Kar Medical College and Hospital was raped and murdered. The tragedy sent shockwaves through the community, igniting spontaneous street protests in the state that reflected both a deep-seated outrage and a growing impatience with a government perceived as detached from the very people it claims to serve.

Economically, the situation is grim. Bengal's growth lags behind that of its coastal counterparts-Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Karnataka and Maharashtra. An industrial powerhouse in the past, structural weaknesses plague Bengal today, stymying Mamata Banerjee government's efforts to cultivate an attractive business environment. 

The ongoing struggles of everyday life amplify the chorus of discontent, tales of bureaucratic inertia and systemic inefficiencies.

The Quiet Precision of BJP's Preparation for Battleground Bengal
Despite consecutive losses in contests against Banerjee since 2016, the BJP's poll preparations includes a striking attention to organisational detail. 

Even before the results for Bihar were declared, the BJP Central Command had consolidated a list of strategists - ministers and general secretaries from smaller states like Chhattisgarh, Himachal, Haryana, and Karnataka - to be redeployed to West Bengal. Given the political factionalism within the BJP in the state, most of these strategists are outsiders who can maintain professional distance and objectivity.

As Bengal braces for the 2026 assembly elections, the political landscape is charged with anticipation and strategic reconfigurations. The BJP, which has been eyeing Bengal for long, is deploying a meticulous plan to infiltrate the Trinamool stronghold. 

This strategic endeavour is underscored by the establishment of a 'Crack Team' designed to optimise outreach, organisational strength, and voter mobilisation across Bengal.

The Bengal Kaleidoscope of six distinct electoral zones

The plan splits Bengal into six distinct political zones, each spearheaded by leaders with commendable records in navigating electoral challenges or possessing substantial organisational experience from other states. 

This meticulous mapping reveals the party's dual objectives: dismantling Trinamool's entrenched district-level supremacy and fortifying its own booth-level presence, particularly in regions where it faltered during the 2021 elections.

1. Darjeeling & Foothills: The Narrative War Zone

In charge: Pradeep Bhandari, the national spokesperson of the BJP and a former TV journalist

Pankaj Kumar Singh, former IPS officer, former Deputy NSA, interlocutor for talks with Gorkha leaders for a separate Gorkhaland
The BJP is strongest in north Bengal, a region that borders Bhutan, Nepal and Assam. The strategic importance of the Gorkhaland region, especially the picturesque hill station of Darjeeling, for the BJP, cannot be overstated. 

In 2021, the BJP had swept the Alipurduar and Darjeeling areas. All ten seats located there had voted BJP. The BJP had also performed brilliantly in Cooch Behar, winning seven out of nine seats.

Bhandari, known for crafting narratives and Pankaj Kumar Singh, the chief interlocutor for talks with Gorkha leaders, will oversee the strategy for the BJP in this war of narratives.

2. Rarh Banga Belt: The Vanguard of BJP's Expansion

Pawan Kumar Sai is the State General Secretary (Organisation) for the BJP in Chhattisgarh.

Dr Dhan Singh Rawat is a Cabinet Minister of Health, Education and Cooperative in Uttarakhand's BJP government.

The Rarh (red laterite soil) region is a physiographic area in West Bengal intersected by rivers Damodar, Ajay and Mayurakshi. It is located between the Chotanagpur plateau and the Ganga delta. It includes the districts of Purulia, Bankura, Birbhum, Purba and Paschim Bardhaman. Asansol, the headquarters of the newly formed Paschim Bardhaman district, is the largest city. The industrial cluster of Asansol-Burnpur-Durgapur has a very large non-Bengali blue-collar population mainly from the Hindi heartland states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. 

The BJP has a natural base in this region among the Hindi-speaking population.

The Trinamool won the Lok Sabha seats in 2024 in the Asansol and Bardhaman-Durgapur constituencies by fielding Bihari leaders like Shatrughan Sinha (Sinha had won in 2019 as well) and Kirti Azad.
The Rarh Banga region stands as the BJP's most promising territory following its surge in the 2019 elections. The party has appointed Pawan Sai, an organisational stalwart from Chhattisgarh, to lead this charge, supported by Uttarakhand's Dhan Singh Rawat. This partnership not only emphasises organisational discipline but also dwells on welfare initiatives aimed at consolidating the BJP's earlier gains. The emphasis on welfare initiatives signals a recognition of the socio-economic development factors that influence voting behaviour in this region.

3. The Howrah-Hooghly-Medinipur Triangle: A Volatile Crucible

Pawan Rana is the State General Secretary (Organisation) of the BJP from Himachal

Sanjay Bhatia is a former MP and State General Secretary of the BJP in Haryana

The BJP had a varied performance across the Howrah-Hooghly-Medinipur region, winning seats primarily in the Medinipur district but securing none in Howrah or Hooghly. The Trinamool swept this region in 2021. As a result, the BJP has nominated Pawan Rana and Sanjay Bhatia in this politically tumultuous area to orchestrate a response against Trinamool's formidable local machinery. 

The BJP acknowledges the necessity of formidable on-ground leadership to navigate this competitive landscape. 

This strategic allocation highlights the BJP's intent to not only reclaim lost ground but to redefine political alignments in these pivotal regions.

4. Kolkata Metropolitan & South 24 Parganas: Breaching the Urban Fortress

M Siddharthan was serving as the General Secretary (Organisation) for the BJP in Himachal Pradesh. He has been brought in as the BJP's zone-in-charge for Kolkata and South 24-Parganas in West Bengal.

Chikkamagaravalli Thimme Ravi Gowda (C T Ravi) is the National General Secretary of the BJP from Karnataka who has won four times from the Chikmagalur constituency and was a former Cabinet Minister in Karnataka.

The Kolkata Metropolitan area is often viewed as a pocket borough of Trinamool influence. This region poses a unique challenge for the BJP. With the deployment of Siddharthan and Ravi, the BJP seeks to dismantle long-held perceptions of impenetrability surrounding this urban stronghold. 

Ironically, the BJP is considered an urban party in other states of India, but not in Bengal, where the Trinamool has a ground presence in the urban strongholds. This high-impact strike team aims to engage voters through innovative outreach - an essential factor in dispelling myths surrounding the BJP's limited appeal in Bengal's urban areas.

5. Nabadwip & North 24 Parganas: The Polarisation Belt
Madhukar Nukala is the BJP's Andhra Pradesh State Organisation General Secretary

This zone, rife with religious significance and changing demographic compositions, has been assigned to N Madhukar. In 2021, BJP had won five constituencies in 24 Parganas, but the rest were picked up by the Trinamool. The BJP leadership perceives potential unrecognised here, maintaining that despite a weak structural presence, latent support exists.

This district has a large Muslim population, and several of its constituencies, particularly in the Bongaon and Basirhat regions, like Murshidabad district, have a majority Muslim electorate. The party's approach in these religiously sensitive territories will likely revolve around nuanced communal engagement strategies to reshape voter sentiments and enhance grassroots presence.

6. North Bengal: Complexity and Uncertainty

Historically a BJP stronghold, North Bengal's political landscape now showcases fragmentation. With designated leadership from BJP officials in both Malda and Siliguri, the party's focus seems to be on micro-level management and careful cultivation of ethnic alliances while striving to reestablish its previous foothold in this key area.

Long-Term Vision Amidst Immediate Challenges

Bengal, with its complex tapestry of history and identity, represents a long-term project for the BJP.

The party's momentum surged dramatically in 2019, capturing 40 per cent vote and 18 of West Bengal's 42 Lok Sabha seats. 

But the electoral path is never linear, and the stark figures tell a sobering story.

While the BJP celebrated a strong showing in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the subsequent assembly contests in 2021 revealed a vulnerability. 

The Trinamool, under Mamata Banerjee, rebounded with a resounding victory, securing 213 seats. The BJP's vote share in the assembly dipped slightly to 39 per cent, but it produced only 77 seats, a result that became a cautionary tale.

The Lokniti-CSDS survey shows that while the Trinamool's electoral support among Muslims increased to 75 per cent in the 2021 assembly polls from 70 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, its support among Hindus has also increased to 39 per cent in the 2021 assembly polls from 32 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. 

In 2021, the BJP's support among Hindus was to 50 per cent - down from the 57 per cent of the 2019 Lok Sabha.

The BJP, down to 65 seats today because of resignations, holds steadfast to a vote share of 39 per cent, suggesting that the resonances of its ideological undercurrents continue to captivate a significant segment of the populace. 

This persistent appeal arises not merely from discontent with the status quo but from an intricate web of emotional and cultural engagement. The BJP's strategies extend beyond standard campaign protocols; they embody an ethos of community involvement, especially among the subaltern Schedule Caste communities, engaging with local narratives that reverberate through the state.

BJP's Namsudra (Matua), Rajbanshi Outreach

Bengal has over 27 per cent Muslim population, the second highest in percentage terms, compared to Assam's 34.22 per cent. 

Moreover, West Bengal also has the third-highest percentage, with Scheduled Castes making up 23.5 per cent of its population. The majority of the SC population are Rajbanshis, Namasudhras and Matuas (Namasudra is a SC group, while Matua is a religious sect that originated within the Namasudra community to protest caste discrimination).

Part of North 24 Parganas, Bongaon sub-division, like the other Matua strongholds of Nadia, Coochbehar, Dinajpur and Burdwan, among others, is a battleground for Matua votes and at the centre of a struggle for control between the Trinamool and the BJP.

The Matua population is estimated at 50 million, of which about 30 million are in West Bengal (15 million are listed as voters). Tracing their roots to the undivided Bengal of 19th Century, they are considered to have the power to swing elections in as many as 30 assembly seats and can have a significant impact on another 50. PM Modi, who visited Bangladesh on March 26, 2021, paid his respects to a sacred shrine of the Matua sect founder - Harichand Thakur - in Orakandi. 

Since then, the BJP has had a popular base among the different Scheduled Caste communities like Matuas, who are Namsudras and Rajbanshis.

Since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, both the BJP and the Trinamool Congress have outdone each other to woo the Matuas ahead of elections. 

In 2019, the BJP managed to get a foothold in the Trinamool bastion of North 24 Parganas, which include over 33 assembly constituencies. The Trinamool won 27 in 2016. 

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Trinamool lost 12 assembly segments to the BJP owing to the support of Matuas. 

The BJP had wrested control of Barrackpore and Bongaon Lok Sabha seats, after getting support from Matuas on basis of the promise of a Citizenship (Amendment) Act or CAA, which promised citizenship to Hindus, Sikhs, Parsis, Buddhists and Jains coming from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan.

The BJP is now intensifying its outreach to the Matua community in Bengal, focusing on initiatives like CAA camps and street meetings in anticipation of the upcoming assembly elections. The party appears to be concentrating on this strategy while also acknowledging that a significant portion of Muslim votes is expected to go to the Trinamool. Moreover, the BJP has launched a cultural outreach strategy to bolster its campaign efforts.

A Prelude to the Big Battle

The BJP's readiness to commence groundwork lays the foundation for a campaign that is anything but seasonal. This is the aura of a party that understands the electoral process as a full-time operation. The swift redeployment of seasoned leaders from Bihar to Bengal is more than just logistical; it indicates the BJP's profound understanding of political nuance, a readiness to shape the narrative before the formal beginning of the contest.

In a landscape as rich and tumultuous as West Bengal's, every move, every strategic decision is meticulously choreographed, reflecting a concerted effort to resonate with the electorate's evolving sentiments. Ahead of the elections, one witnesses not just a contest for power but a complex interplay of narratives, ambitions, and the perennial quest for belonging. The BJP is poised to engage in this intricate dance, demonstrating once again that in the theatre of politics, timing strategies and organisation are the keys to unlocking electoral success.