Poll Win For 2 Union Ministers Can Raise Political Storm In Madhya Pradesh

The outcome of polling in two seats in Kerala and Tamil Nadu may raise a political storm in the heartland state of Madhya Pradesh, nearly 2,000 kilometres from the southern states. Two Rajya Sabha MPs from Madhya Pradesh, Union Ministers Dr L Murugan and George Kurian, are candidates in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, respectively, and their poll prospects may vacate Madhya Pradesh's Rajya Sabha seats, triggering frenetic political activity in the state.

Three Rajya Sabha seats from Madhya Pradesh have become vacant this month after Congress veteran Digvijaya Singh and BJP leaders Dr Sumer Singh Solanki and George Kurian completed their terms. Now, if Murugan is elected in the Tamil Nadu polls and joins the state Assembly, one more Rajya Sabha seat from Madhya Pradesh will be vacated. This will set off an intense scramble, opening doors to political realignment and new power equations within the BJP and Congress alike.

How The Numbers Stack Up

Election to the Rajya Sabha is based on a complex formula: (Total MLAs divided by (No. of vacant seats + 1) + 1). Madhya Pradesh has 230 MLAs, so if three seats are vacated. Then the formula would be (230 MLAs divided by (3 + 1) + 1). So the quota, or the number of votes required to win a Rajya seat, would be 58.

The BJP, with over 160 MLAs, can comfortably win two seats. The Congress has 65 MLAs and can easily win one. But there is a twist. The Congress's Rajendra Bhati has been disqualified from the Assembly after conviction in a cheating case. The election of another Congress MLA, Mukesh Malhotra, was declared null and void after he was found to have suppressed information about pending criminal cases against him. And MLA Nirmala Sapre, who switched from Congress to the BJP, cannot vote either. The Congress then effectively has 62 votes, just four more than the cut-off. This means that crossvoting by just four MLAs can effectively rob Congress of an assured seat. And the recent signals are unsettling. From MLAs sharing stages at RSS-linked events to open ideological clashes, the faultlines are visible. As for the BJP, it has 47 surplus votes, 11 short of the quota of 58. And it may try to spring a surprise by reaching out to a section of Congress MLAs to cash in on the infighting.

Now, if Murugan's seat also falls vacant, the quota drops to 47, making the contest all the more intense.

There are other implications, too. If Murugan and Kurian transition to state politics, vacancies would open up in the Union Cabinet. Leaders from Madhya Pradesh are already eyeing a spot in 'Team Modi'.

Names like Harsh Chouhan and Ranjana Baghel are doing the rounds. Meanwhile, discussions are on within the Congress too. With Digvijaya Singh ruling out a third term in the Rajya Sabha, intense lobbying has started within the state Congress ranks. Dalit, Brahmin, and now Sindhi representation demands have emerged, turning the selection of the candidate into a delicate balancing act.

Adding to the unpredictability is the lone MLA of the Bharat Adivasi Party, Kamleshwar Dodiyar, who has signalled intent to field a candidate. In such a tight race, even a single vote could alter the outcome.