Opposition Ditches Om Birla Trust Vote, Targets Centre Over Iran, Oil Shock

The opposition surprised the government in Parliament Monday with a tactical shift, junking plans to demand a vote on Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla's impeachment – for which they never had the numbers – to corner the government over war in the Middle East and its economic and humanitarian impact, with the focus on oil prices and Indian nationals still stuck in Iran.

Day 1 of the second half of the budget session began with opposition MPs shouting slogans and holding placards – 'Middle East is burning, Indians are stranded, there is no oil. Modiji, stop bowing to (Donald) Trump' – as External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar briefed Parliament.

House proceedings were repeatedly adjourned – this didn't change either – over the opposition's demands to discuss the war, which the government refused to accept, though Jaishankar spoke in the Rajya Sabha.

A stalemate followed till the Lok Sabha closed for the day at 3 pm.

After the Lok Sabha was adjourned Rahul Gandhi said, "What is happening in West Asia is going to cause significant damage. Our economy is going to suffer a huge loss. You have already seen the state of the stock market. The economy is going to be severely hit… so discuss that."

"What's the problem in doing that? Oil prices… the country's economy… these are all public issues. We will discuss the Lok Sabha Speaker's issue later," the Leader of the Opposition said.

The government's pushback came through Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, who branded Rahul Gandhi a "failed" LoP, and ex-minister Anurag Thakur, who said, "The opposition brought a no-confidence motion against the Speaker… but is itself running away from the debate."

Impeachment out, Iran in

The shuffled tactics, sources later told NDTV, flowed from a meeting this morning attended by senior leaders like Congress MP Rahul Gandhi and Samajwadi Party boss Akhilesh Yadav.

In early February the opposition INDIA bloc submitted a vote of no-confidence in Om Birla's stewardship of the House.

The notice, moved by Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi, accused Birla of favouring the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and not allowing opposition MPs time to speak.

RECAP | No-Confidence Motion Against Om Birla: How Speaker Can Be Removed

The timing of the notice, however, worked against the opposition; it was submitted with less than 14 days left in the first half of the budget session, meaning it could only be picked up now.

Accordingly, last night the opposition thrashed out its battleplan and all INDIA members, even Bengal's ruling Trinamool Congress, which often squabbles with the Congress, were ready.

Mamata Banerjee's party, sources said, declared it would vote with the opposition.

This morning, however, it was all change.

At a meeting led by Gandhi and Yadav it was decided the focus should be on the war in Iran, which is now in its ninth day and has claimed the lives of over 1,200 people, including children.

War in Iran, oil price concerns in India

US-Israel strikes have also led to oil prices skyrocketing; Israeli strikes on Iranian oil depots over the weekend pushed it to over the US$100 redline, for the first time in four years this morning.

RECAP | White House Sent 'WTF' Message To Israel After Iran Oil Field Strike

Rising oil prices and Iran pressure on oil supply coming through the Strait of Hormuz – through which a fifth of the world's energy trade passes – have led to fears of fuel shortage in India.

The government has said it has sufficient petroleum reserves and, last week, sources confirmed to NDTV it plans to increase purchase of Russian crude to offset supply loss from Hormuz.

RECAP | "Fuel Prices Won't Rise, Don't Panic": Sources Say India To Buy Russian Oil

The push to impeach Birla, it was also noted, could be picked up by the Trinamool at a later time; the opposition leaders acknowledged, sources said, that they lack the numbers – even with the Trinamool's backing – to make a genuine contest of the Om Birla impeachment bid.

Congress' Kerala angle

Another factor in the tactical switch-up, sources said, was pressure on the Congress from its Kerala MPs and MLAs. The southern state will hold an Assembly election in April/May – an election the party hopes to win after a strong showing in December's local body polls.

Kerala is also a state that sends lakhs of people to work in Gulf nations.

The Congress' Kerala leaders flagged the fate of around 25 lakh people from the state who still live and work in the Middle East region, and send back significant amounts of foreign currency.

It was also pointed out lakhs more from other Indian states are still in the war-torn region.

The government has begun repatriating nationals from the Middle East; the latest External Affairs Ministry data indicates over 52,000 have been brought back since March 1.

Lakhs more remain in potentially life-threatening situations and this, the opposition decided, should be the focus of its attacks on the government as Parliament's budget session concludes.

Day 2 focus back on Speaker?

Sources also told NDTV the agenda for Day 2 will likely pivot back to the impeachment motion against Om Birla, with Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju initiating the debate.

Home Minister Amit Shah is also expected to participate.

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