As BJP Eyes Mumbai Mayor Post, Shinde Sena Could Throw Spanner In Works: Sources

As Friday drew to a close, the BJP and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena seemed poised to take control of India's richest civic body, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, wresting it from the Thackerays, who had managed to have someone from their party as the mayor for at least 25 straight years till 2022.  

While the numbers taken in total - 117 seats in the 227-seat BMC, where the majority mark is 114 - seem just about comfortable enough, there may be a twist in the tale.

As of midnight, the BJP had emerged as the single largest party, winning or leading in 88 wards, but there is no scenario - barring implausible ones like a tie-up with Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena - in which it can govern the corporation without the support of Shinde's Shiv Sena, which was ahead in 29 wards. This arithmetic and the resulting leverage as a kingmaker, sources have told NDTV, could make Shinde push for a mayor from his party despite ending up with roughly a third of the BJP's seats.

Spokespersons from the Shinde faction and other leaders have also already indicated that "the mayor of Mumbai should be from the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) because it is Balasaheb's (Bal Thackeray's) legacy", referring to the undivided Sena's long rule in the BMC. 

Speaking after the results were largely clear, Shinde, who had unsuccessfully tried to wrangle the chief minister's seat from the BJP in 2024 despite winning 57 Assembly seats against the BJP's 132, appeared more guarded. 

"Our agenda is development. We fought as the Mahayuti (grand alliance) and will sit together to decide what is best in the interest of Mumbai," he said, while replying to a question on who would be mayor.

The open-ended answer made some political analysts wonder whether this meant a middle path could be in the offing, with Shinde pushing for someone from his party to serve as mayor for 2.5 years, with the BJP getting the remaining half of the term.

The Thane Factor

The one thing that may work in favour of the BJP, the analysts said, could be the Shinde Sena's stellar show in its party chief's bastion of Thane. With over 70 seats, the party is comfortably over the majority mark of 66 in the 131-member Thane Municipal Corporation and can elect its own mayor since the BJP has only 28 members.

As a satellite city of Mumbai, Thane carries its own heft, and this may make Shinde settle for his party members heading major committees in the BMC, including the all-important standing committee. 

"Either way, if Shinde easily concedes the mayor's post to the BJP, it could send the wrong message to his party workers. Therefore, at the very least, intense behind-the-scenes negotiations over the deputy mayor's position, the Standing Committee chairmanship, and important wards are considered almost certain," said an analyst.