315 Districts Across India At High Risk Due To Rainfall Deficit, El Nino

In the wake of a coupling effect emerging from monsoon deficit and El Nino concerns, the Indian government has initiated a nationwide preparedness exercise to safeguard the upcoming kharif season. The southwest monsoon was recorded 43 per cent below normal till June 23. Consequently, the Union Agriculture Ministry has identified 315 districts that could face adverse effects from below-normal rainfall and directed states to activate contingency plans.

Irrigation Vulnerability

The ministry classified these districts based on irrigation coverage, a key factor determining their resilience to rainfall shocks. Of the 315 districts, 111 districts with less than 25 per cent irrigation coverage were categorised as the most vulnerable. Another 76 districts with irrigation coverage between 25-50 per cent were placed in the medium-vulnerability category, while 128 districts with more than 50 per cent irrigation coverage were considered relatively less vulnerable.

Most of the highly vulnerable districts are concentrated in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, while vulnerable districts are spread across Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. Reports indicate that around 20 districts in Maharashtra alone fall under the highest-risk category.

Rainfall Deficit

The district-wise rainfall departure map for June 1-24 shows that much of India is covered in yellow and orange shades, indicating normal to deficient rainfall conditions across a large number of districts.

Deficient rainfall is particularly visible across parts of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Telangana and Karnataka. In contrast, only a few pockets, mainly in western Rajasthan, parts of the northeast and isolated districts elsewhere, have recorded excess or large excess rainfall. The pattern suggests that while the monsoon has advanced across the country, rainfall distribution remains uneven, leaving several agriculturally important regions vulnerable to moisture stress during the critical sowing period.

Many districts in these states are marked in deficient or large-deficient categories, suggesting that some of the regions identified by the Centre are already experiencing rainfall stress. In contrast, parts of western Rajasthan and a few pockets in northern India have received normal to excess rainfall.

Government's Suggestion

To minimise the impact of a weak monsoon, the Centre has advised states to encourage farmers to shift towards pulses, millets and oilseeds, which are generally more drought-resilient than water-intensive crops. States have also been asked to promote short-duration crop varieties that can mature within a shorter growing season if rainfall remains erratic. Crop diversification, moisture conservation and efficient water management have been identified as key strategies. The government has also directed states to strengthen water conservation measures through the repair of ponds, rejuvenation of check dams, desilting of canals and expansion of water-harvesting structures.

At the institutional level, an El Nino Monitoring Cell and a Crop Weather Watch Group have been established to monitor rainfall patterns, crop conditions and sowing progress in real time.