Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 ended Thursday on a subdued note, closing nearly flat at 23,416.55, up just 10.95 points (0.05%), as investors largely stayed on the sidelines ahead of the RBI's monetary policy announcement. While the index managed to defend the crucial 23,250-23,300 support zone, the rebound from intraday lows lacked strong follow-through buying. Strength in auto, capital goods and consumer durable stocks provided support, though weakness in IT and metal counters restricted upside momentum.

Global cues remained largely constructive. US markets witnessed a strong rally, with the Dow Jones surging 1.73% to a fresh record high as investors rotated into financials and healthcare stocks, while the S&P 500 gained 0.41%. The Nasdaq ended marginally lower amid profit-taking in select technology and semiconductor names. Asian markets traded mixed in early deals, reflecting a cautious stance ahead of key macro developments.

Meanwhile, Brent crude has eased from recent highs amid hopes of easing geopolitical tensions, offering some comfort on the inflation and current account front for India. GIFT Nifty is indicating a largely flat start, with market participants expected to closely monitor the RBI policy outcome and commentary for directional cues.

Technically, Nifty continues to trade within a well-defined range, and the near-term trend is likely to remain stock-specific until a decisive breakout emerges. A sustained move above 23,550 could trigger fresh buying interest and pave the way towards 23,700-23,800 levels. On the downside, holding above 23,300 remains crucial; a breach of this support may invite profit booking and drag the index towards the 23,150-23,100 zone. The RBI policy outcome and management commentary will be key catalysts in determining the market's next directional move.

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange

The overall crypto market remains under pressure as risk appetite weakens, ETF demand slows, and volatility expands across major assets. BTC has slipped below key short-term levels, ETF outflows have continued for 13 straight trading days, and professional investors cut spot Bitcoin ETF exposure by nearly 52,000 BTC in Q1.

For BTC, the $62,000-$61,200 zone is now critical. If this range breaks, a retest of $60,000 becomes likely. RSI near 25 shows oversold conditions, so a relief bounce is possible. But recovery strength will only improve if BTC reclaims $64,000 first, followed by $65,500. With volatility elevated, bounce attempts can remain unstable unless BTC breaks above resistance with conviction.

ETH is also weak. It is trading around $1,730 and remains below all major 4H EMAs. Immediate support is near $1,720-$1,700. A breakdown below this zone can open downside toward $1,650-$1,600. On the upside, ETH needs to reclaim $1,820-$1,840 for early recovery signs.

Also, AI-led equities are showing stronger relative market attention and momentum, while Bitcoin ETF outflows suggest weaker BTC demand. Until ETF demand stabilizes and key resistance levels are reclaimed, selling pressure may continue.

The Thesis

With RBI's policy decision at 10am IST the anchor and Brent easing to $97 on Iran ceasefire hopes, today is a barbell - rate-sensitive financials primed for a hold against export IT bid by rupee weakness. Overnight US flow rotated OUT of chips INTO Dow banks and retail, aligning squarely with our blend; India VIX collapsed 3.13% to 15.77, signalling the tape is pricing through geopolitical noise, not into it.

Where We're Concentrated

Concentration sits in three macro-fit places: NBFC and PSU infra-finance riding the rate-pause trade, export IT turning rupee weakness into a tailwind rather than a drag, and auto cyclicals with disciplined volume mix. The thesis breaks if RBI hikes - re-accelerating FII outflows - or if Iran talks stall and Brent re-tests $100, snapping the VIX easing.

Conviction Picks

Highest Conviction

Sammaan Capital

NBFC bid into RBI 10am - consensus hold at 5.25% preserves carry trade; credit cycle still extending despite crude noise.

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles

EV mix accretive even as Brent near $97 squeezes ICE demand; sector rotation favours disciplined volume names this open.

HCL Technologies

IT major absorbs overnight Nasdaq tech rotation; rupee weakness from Iran risk premium is a tailwind for revenue conversion.

LTIMindtree

Mid-cap IT proxy - same FX tailwind; deal pipeline cushions against the US chip-led AI derating priced in overnight.

NBCC

PSU construction proxy - government capex tempo unbroken; infra spend insulated from Iran-war crude via budget allocation.

One Thing to Watch

RBI MPC at 10am IST. A hold at 5.25% per consensus reignites financial flows; any hike - even 25 bps - triggers cascading FII selling into a Brent-fragile open and a tape already four sessions stretched.

WazirX Market Desk

"Bitcoin's recent pullback to $62,351 appears to be driven more by institutional portfolio rebalancing. After a strong rally, it's natural for large investors to book profits and rotate capital into sectors they believe offer the next growth opportunity. We've seen this pattern play out across multiple market cycles, most recently in February this year.

At the same time, global events are reshaping where capital flows. Rising geopolitical tensions and the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure are putting energy security back in focus. Nuclear energy, once viewed as a niche sector, is increasingly becoming critical to powering the next generation of technology. Markets are ultimately a reflection of capital seeking efficiency, and right now we're witnessing that shift in real time. For long-term retail investors, these rotations are often part of the journey. However, the coming weeks might continue to be volatile for the crypto market, especially with major IPOs of SpaceX, and other AI companies coming up."

The Indian rupee has been one of the worst performers this year. Its value has eroded by over 2.3 per cent since April. Read full report here

At the close on Thursday, the total market cap of all 30 BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,62,03,291.