Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex

Bitcoin has rallied from around $77,200 to above $81,000 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled support for holding rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting if inflation continues to ease. The shift pushed September rate-hike expectations down 12 percentage points to 54.6% and weakened the dollar, improving the appetite for risk assets. Bitcoin is also showing a stronger link with gold, with its correlation at the highest level since 2020. However, unusually extreme fund flows for six consecutive days could be a warning sign for prices. BTC now needs to break the $83,000 resistance, while support has moved up to $78,000.

Balaji Srihari, VP - Business, India, CoinSwitch

BTC climbed above $81K, supported by U.S. spot ETF inflows and Strategy returning to the market as a buyer. The broader trend remains positive, with BTC trading above its key moving averages. However, momentum is starting to look stretched, as daily RSI has moved above 73, while the hourly RSI is above 80, signalling overbought conditions. A short-term consolidation or pullback would therefore be healthy. $80K remains the key support zone, while a decisive move above $83K could open the door for further upside. 

Capri Global Capital Limited, one of the leading Non-banking financial companies, has successfully completed its first-ever US Dollar bond issuance, raising US$ 300 million through Senior Secured Notes maturing in 2029.

The transaction was managed by a consortium of global banks comprising Barclays, Citi, Deutsche Bank, Emirates NBD and UBS. Bonds were priced at a coupon of 7.55% per annum. The issue was oversubscribed by over 2.3x with an order book exceeding US$ 700 million, across 64 high-quality accounts and the issue saw one of the highest allocations to global real money investors.
 

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange

"Bitcoin and the broader crypto market staged a sharp recovery, with total market capitalisation rising 3.9% to around $2.72 trillion as major digital assets moved higher.
Bitcoin climbed more than 4% to around $81,000 after briefly testing $82,000, while Ethereum gained 4.5%. BNB, Solana and XRP also advanced, with XRP among the strongest major tokens, rising nearly 6%. The broad-based gains suggest the move extended well beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The rally followed comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicating that a September rate hike may not be necessary if inflation continues to moderate. The remarks eased some concerns over US monetary policy and supported a broader risk-on move across financial markets.
Leverage appears to have amplified the rally. Around $691 million in crypto positions were liquidated over the latest 24-hour period, a 166% increase from the previous day. The sharp rise in liquidations alongside higher prices suggests forced short covering contributed significantly to the move, adding buying pressure as bearish positions were closed.
Market sentiment has also strengthened, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reaching 78, firmly in greed territory.
Bitcoin now faces resistance around $82,000-$84,000. A pullback toward $78,000-$78,900 could provide a test of the breakout, while US employment data could determine whether the recovery extends or loses momentum."

Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder & CEO, Pi42

"The crypto market has staged a strong rebound, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $80,000 mark and trading around $81,000, while Ethereum has moved above $2,500 and XRP has gained nearly 6% to around $1.43. The broad-based recovery suggests buying interest has returned across major assets, supported in part by easing expectations of a September Fed rate hike. XRP's relative outperformance is particularly notable as momentum extends beyond Bitcoin into large-cap altcoins.

The next few sessions will be important in determining whether this recovery can sustain. Investors should avoid chasing sharp intraday moves and instead consider staggered entries while watching whether Bitcoin can establish itself firmly above $80,000 and Ethereum holds the $2,500 zone. Upcoming US employment data could also influence expectations around the Federal Reserve and therefore remain an important trigger for crypto markets."

The Thesis
Private banks and real estate led Thursday's session as the rupee touched a two-month high at 94.28, driven by FCNR inflows and soft US labour data. FII rotation into rate-sensitive names signals the domestic rate-cut window is reopening. Today's August payrolls print is the next verdict on that thesis.

Where We're Concentrated
The basket concentrates in rate-sensitive financials - PSU banks, private lenders, NBFCs - alongside premium real estate at peak conviction. Both move on one input: if the Fed turns dovish and rupee stability holds, NIM compression eases while home-loan demand reignites. A secondary commodity hedge in thermal coal and steel guards against Middle East supply disruption. What breaks it: an NFP beat that reloads dollar strength and reverses FII flows.

Conviction Picks
Highest Conviction
Godrej Properties Ltd.
Rupee at two-month high and FII inflows reshaping home-loan demand; soft payrolls today keep the rate-cut thesis intact.
Union Bank of India
PSU credit growth returns to focus as rupee stability reduces imported inflation and opens the rate-cut path.
Axis Bank Ltd.
Private bank margins benefit as overnight risk-on and FII rotation favour India's best-capitalised lenders.
Phoenix Mills Ltd.
Premium retail real estate anchored to urban discretionary spend; easing rates ahead support footfall-linked rental yields.
Coal India Ltd.
Thermal energy procurement locked ahead of winter; government offtake shields volume as Brent hovers near elevated levels.
One Thing to Watch
US August payrolls at 8:30 am ET Consensus is 53K after two months near zero; a miss keeps the rupee bid alive and validates the rate-sensitive positioning; a beat reloads dollar strength and tests the FII inflow story.

Kenya President said Tata Chemicals had a contract for 100 years but had not built a factory in Kajiado."Are we slaves to other people?" he asked. Read full report here

A falling Sensex or Nifty is visible part of the problem. The real story develops underneath -- in crude prices, global bond yields & trade policies. Read full report here

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 closed 41 points, or 0.17%, lower at 23,873.45, as profit-booking across IT, auto, FMCG and pharma outweighed gains in realty and financials. Bank Nifty rose 0.36%, while the Realty index outperformed with a 2.58% gain. Global cues, however, turned supportive as Wall Street rallied sharply overnight after softer Treasury yields and dovish Fed commentary raised hopes that further rate hikes may not be warranted if inflation continues to ease. The S&P 500 gained 1.1%, the Dow surged 620 points and the Nasdaq advanced 1.40%, led by financials and AI-linked technology stocks.

Asian markets are trading mixed, with the Nikkei 225 up around 0.7%, the Kospi holding firm while the Hang Seng trades marginally lower. Brent crude remains elevated near $96 a barrel amid persistent Middle East tensions, keeping pressure on India's import bill, although a softer dollar provides some relief. Gold extended its rally beyond $4,549 an ounce. GIFT Nifty is trading around 120 points higher, signalling a gap-up opening for domestic equities.

Technically, the Nifty's near-term bias remains constructive above 23,800. A sustained move above 24,000 could pave the way for 24,250, while a break below 23,800 may trigger a move towards 23,650. Any moderation in crude prices could further support the market's recovery and improve overall sentiment.

Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX

"US services PMI rose to 55.4, supporting confidence and demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum, but the 72.6 price index signals inflation that could keep crypto liquidity tight. Low jobless claims reinforce risk appetite, while weaker exports and a wider trade deficit may lower growth and yields, benefiting digital-asset valuations. A Fed pause would support ETF flows, whereas Bank of Japan tightening could unwind carry trades and trigger volatility. Brent above $95 threatens easing. Overall, crypto's backdrop remains constructive.

Bitcoin trades near $81,000 in a bullish daily structure, with RSI near 71 indicating elevated momentum. Immediate support sits at $79,700-$80,000, while $81,000-$81,500 forms resistance. Holding support could sustain buyer control; clearing resistance may strengthen momentum, while losing support would expose secondary support around $78,400-$78,850 during near-term consolidation.

Ethereum trades near $2,506 with a strong bullish daily setup and neutral RSI near 67. Immediate support rests around $2,460-$2,480, while $2,520-$2,550 represents resistance above the psychological $2,500 level. Futures traders may monitor volume, open interest, and funding before confirming broader upside participation.

Zcash trades near $940 after a strong advance, with moving averages firmly bullish but RSI near 74 showing stretched momentum. Immediate support is at $908-$920, while $950-$975 marks nearby supply. Remaining above support could protect the uptrend; a breakdown would bring the $845-$850 secondary zone back into focus for traders.

Global risk appetite strengthened as the Dow gained 1.18%, the S&P 500 rose 1.06%, and the Nasdaq advanced 1.40%, while the VIX dropped 5.79% to 14.32. Asian equities were broadly positive, led by the Hang Seng at 2.03% and KOSPI at 1.13%, despite Sensex weakness. Gold slipped 0.43%, signaling limited defensive positioning, while oil rose 0.69%. Stronger equities, lower volatility and broad Asian participation create a constructive backdrop for crypto demand and capital rotation globally.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $135 million in net outflows week-to-date through September 2, as a $101 million daily rebound only partly offset earlier withdrawals, while Ethereum ETFs saw about $37 million in net outflows over the same period. Bitcoin subsequently rallied above $81,000, while Ether reclaimed $2,500. ETF flows do not always translate directly into price gains, as macro conditions, derivatives positioning, profit-taking, and broader spot-market activity can offset institutional demand."

At the close on Thursday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,87,08,118.