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Vikaas M Sachdeva - Chief Executive Officer, BitDelta India

Bitcoin's brief move to the $70,000 mark reflects several factors converging rather than a sudden change in the long-term trajectory of the asset class. Liquidity has been an important catalyst, with the U.S. Treasury doubling its bond buyback operations and easing conditions across the roughly $30 trillion Treasury market, which has supported broader risk appetite. The move was further strengthened by a technical breakout above resistance near $66,600, putting $76,000 on traders' radar as the next key level, while more than $1.4 billion in short positions were liquidated during the rally. Renewed optimism around U.S. crypto regulation has added another layer of support to the recovery.

What is significant is that Bitcoin is increasingly responding to the same macro forces shaping broader financial markets, liquidity, monetary policy, regulation and investor positioning. The sharpness of this move therefore needs to be viewed in context. Until there is greater clarity on the U.S. inflation outlook and the next steps on crypto market-structure legislation, near-term momentum can remain sensitive to changing expectations. For investors, the focus should be on distinguishing market momentum from the underlying structural evolution of the asset class."

The Thesis
The Nifty 500's 0.54% recovery - snapping a seven-session slide - is being underwritten by domestic institutional buying running 6:1 over FII selling on Thursday. RBI stability at 5.25% and active currency defence provide the macro floor. The rotation favours capex-driven infrastructure, commodity exchange volumes, and financial deepening over global-risk plays.

Where We're Concentrated
The basket skews to names with domestic demand backbones insulated from foreign-flow sentiment. Cement rides a multi-year government capex cycle; rate stability at 5.25% keeps construction demand intact despite crude headwinds. Commodity exchanges are the structural beneficiary of UAE-Iran tensions - Brent at $93 and rupee volatility inflate derivatives volumes at India's primary platform. Insurance captures financial deepening with stable portfolio yields. Telecom consolidation adds regulatory-backstopped recovery optionality. The thesis breaks if Brent sustains above $95 or daily FII outflows breach ₹1,000 Cr.

Conviction Picks
Highest Conviction
Dalmia Bharat
Government capex pipeline sustains cement order books as RBI rate stability at 5.25% anchors construction demand.
Vodafone Idea
Tariff consolidation and government equity backstop build the runway for ARPU recovery as competitive dynamics stabilise.
MCX
UAE-Iran escalation and Brent at $93 drive trading-volume surges at India's dominant commodity exchange platform.
SBI Life Insurance
Stable rates and domestic financialization momentum support insurance premium growth, insulated from foreign-flow volatility.
One Thing to Watch
Brent above $95 If UAE-Iran tensions push crude through that level, India's import bill widens, rupee defence costs rise, and the RBI faces a difficult choice between currency stability and domestic liquidity - the scenario that reverses Thursday's recovery.

Atomberg Technologies Limited has filed its Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) for its IPO.
 
The IPO comprises of a fresh issue of Equity Shares of face value of Rs 10 each aggregating up to Rs 450 Crores and an offer for sale of 76,542,051 equity shares of face value Rs 10 each. The offer for sale includes
 
The Company proposes to utilise the Net Proceeds primarily towards Rs 90 Crores for repayment/prepayment, in full or in part, of certain borrowings, Rs 150 Crores towards brand awareness and performance marketing activities, and Rs 100 Crores towards investment in research and development. The balance Net Proceeds will be utilised for general corporate purposes.

Nischal Shetty, founder, WazirX

"Global macro conditions remain constructive for crypto as US jobless claims fell to 206,000 and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to 47.4, supporting economic confidence and risk appetite. Japan's 23.2% export growth reinforced resilient technology demand, while China's unchanged lending rates preserved regional liquidity. However, Brent crude above $93 may sustain inflation and delay central-bank easing. Overall, stable growth and liquidity support digital-asset participation, although higher energy costs may limit near-term momentum across broader crypto markets during coming sessions.

Bitcoin trades near $75,083 with a bullish daily structure, supported by strong moving average signals, although RSI near 83 indicates stretched momentum. Immediate support lies around $74,000-$74,500, while $75,500-$76,000 forms the first resistance zone. Holding support could preserve buyer control, whereas losing it would shift attention toward secondary support around $72,500-$73,000 initially.

Ethereum trades near $2,355 with a bullish daily structure, supported by strong moving average signals, although RSI near 85 indicates stretched momentum. Immediate support lies around $2,320-$2,340, while $2,380-$2,400 forms the first resistance zone. Holding support could preserve buyer control, while Futures traders may monitor volume, open interest, and funding rates before treating a resistance test above $2,400 as confirmed.

Ethena (ENA) trades near $0.121323 after maintaining firm upward momentum across its daily moving averages. RSI near 79 indicates that buying activity is elevated, making nearby levels important. Immediate support sits around $0.115-$0.118, while $0.123-$0.127 forms the first resistance zone. Holding support would maintain the positive structure, whereas losing it could shift attention toward $0.110-$0.113.

Global risk appetite remained selective, with Asian gains led by India's Sensex at 0.82%, Hong Kong at 0.57% and Singapore at 0.11%. US equities declined, but the VIX remained relatively contained at 16.01 despite its daily increase, indicating manageable volatility. Gold gained 0.37%, supporting interest in alternative assets, while oil rose 2.70%. This mixed backdrop may strengthen crypto's diversification appeal as investors balance equity volatility, commodity strength, and continued global demand for non-traditional assets.

Institutional demand strengthened this week, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting approximately $1.00 billion across three sessions, while Ethereum ETFs added about $291 million. Bitcoin climbed to around $75,083, and Ethereum reached $2,355, showing that fund demand aligned with stronger price performance. However, ETF inflows were not the only catalyst. Treasury buybacks, lower yields, regulatory optimism and short liquidations amplified the rally. At the same time, exchange selling, profit-taking and derivatives positioning can delay or reduce the immediate price impact of institutional purchases."

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin traded near $74,700 on Friday morning, gaining about 7.4% over 24 hours, after moving between approximately $68,868 and $74,939. The rally has taken Bitcoin decisively above the $68,700 level that had capped recoveries for much of the past three months. Immediate support now lies near $72,000, followed by the stronger 68,500-70,000 breakout zone. Resistance is around $75,000, with $75,800 the next level to watch.

The breakout followed the US Treasury's decision to double buybacks of 10- to 30-year debt to at least $4 billion per operation, which initially lowered long-term yields and weakened the dollar. On-chain data also makes the move significant. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis stands near $68,700, while the Median Realised Price is around $63,000. Spot volumes had fallen to their lowest level since 2019 before the breakout, making sustained trading above $68,700 an important test of whether fresh demand is returning.

ETF demand has strengthened materially. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.11 billion of net inflows between August 17 and 20. This includes $517.2 million on August 19 and a currently reported $103.3 million on August 20.

The rally has broadened into altcoins. Ethereum traded near $2,365 ( 4.4%), BNB around $662 ( 5.8%), XRP $1.29 ( 16%), Solana $89.10 ( 4.6%), and TRON $0.338 ( 1.3%). XRP's outperformance indicates increasing risk appetite beyond Bitcoin.

Macro remains the main risk. Markets currently assign about a 64% probability that the Fed will hold rates at 3.50%-3.75% in September. However, the July meeting minutes showed deeper concerns about inflation. The next major tests are July PCE and GDP data on August 26, Jackson Hole on August 27-29, US jobs data on September 4 and CPI on September 11.

Our advice: Investors should avoid chasing a 7% daily rally. Staggered entries and disciplined position sizing are preferable, with 68,500-70,000 now the key zone to watch for confirmation that the breakout can hold.

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research at Axis Securities

The Nifty 50 snapped its seven-session losing streak on Thursday, rising 153.55 points, or 0.64%, to 24,231.85, while the Sensex gained 628 points to 77,537.72. The recovery was broad-based, with IT and financials leading the gains and 14 of 16 sectoral indices closing higher. Initial relief came after the US Treasury announced a more than doubling of buybacks of long-dated debt, easing global bond-market concerns. However, the respite proved short-lived, with long-term yields resuming their rise and the US 30-year yield settling at 5.25%.

Global cues have turned cautious, with the Dow falling 1.32%, the S&P 500 declining 0.87% and the Nasdaq losing 1%. Asian markets have opened weaker, with Japan's Nikkei down around 1.4%. Brent crude remains elevated near $93 a barrel amid renewed US-Iran tensions, keeping pressure on India's import bill and the rupee, which is at 95.78. GIFT Nifty indicates a largely flat opening.

The near-term undertone remains defensive as long as the Nifty trades below 24,400. Immediate support is placed at 24,100, followed by 24,000 and 23,900. A sustained recovery in global bond yields or a moderation in crude prices, however, could provide room for the recent rebound to extend.

Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex

"Bitcoin extended its rally above $75,000, reaching a 12-week high and posting its first close above the 200-day moving average since November.  The US Treasury's debt-buyback plans continued to support market liquidity while Treasury Secretary Bessent also indicated that buybacks could exceed $4 billion per operation, even as US federal debt crossed $40 trillion. Importantly, Bitcoin continued rising despite a rebound in long-term Treasury yields, suggesting stronger underlying demand. Spot and derivatives activity has also turned positive for the first time since October's all-time high, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $517 million in daily inflows, their strongest since May. A sustained weekly close above $75,000 could open the path toward $80,000, with $70,000 being the key support."

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Gold surged 3% this week to $4,525 as the US Treasury's doubled debt-buyback program pushed the 30-year yield down to around 5.18%, boosting demand for precious metals. However, gold slipped below $4,500 after Fed minutes showed policymakers remain open to another rate hike if inflation stays persistent. This puts the breakout near the 200-day moving average around $4,510 under scrutiny. Gold and silver remain on track for a third consecutive weekly gain. Meanwhile, oil rose more than 2% to $86.70, its highest since July 24, after Trump announced new measures targeting Iran's banks, shipping registries and financial channels. 

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"BTC surged above $75K, supported by a major short squeeze that liquidated roughly $3.4 billion in leveraged positions. Sentiment was further boosted by reports that the U.S. government discussed purchasing "sizable" amounts of BTC, adding another bullish catalyst. BTC has also reclaimed its 200-week moving average, strengthening the technical setup. However, the sustainability of the rally will depend on continued spot and ETF inflows, healthy trading volumes, balanced derivatives positioning, and consistent buying during pullbacks rather than short-covering alone."

Insurance penetration stood at around 3.7 per cent of GDP in FY2024-25, while insurance density was about $97. Read full report here

At the close on Thursday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,91,41,687.