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Harish G Vatnani, Head of Trade, ZebPay 

Over the past week, the crypto market stayed range-bound and then slipped lower after a hotter-than-expected inflation print. Bitcoin was rejected at about $84,350 on 14 October, and sellers took control after the September US CPI came in at 3.7% against 3.6% expected, with the US PPI jumping to 6.3% year on year. Bitcoin fell to a low of about $79,800 on 15 October before recovering to around $82,100, while Ethereum underperformed again, undercutting its September low of $2,360 to print $2,315 before bouncing back above $2,400. Roughly $292 million of Ether positions (92% of them longs) were liquidated in 24 hours, and spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $369 million between 8 and 15 October, keeping October's monthly flows negative. Sentiment cooled, with the Fear & Greed Index easing to 57 and total crypto market capitalisation slipping to about $2.86 trillion. Even so, on-chain data pointed to accumulation, with wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC reaching a record 20,338 according to Santiment. Overall, last week saw the market test the lower end of its recent range, with traders now focused on key support near $80,000 for BTC and on Fed commentary and further inflation data.

Bitcoin's rebound from the mid-September low of $75,025 stalled just below $87,400, and the latest push toward $84,000 was rejected on 14 October at about $84,350. BTC gave up its pre-CPI gains on the hot inflation print, slid to a low of $79,806 on 15 October, where buyers stepped in at the $80,000 psychological level, and is now trading near $82,100. Price is holding above its 50-day EMA at roughly $80,400, with the 100-day and 200-day EMAs near $76,800 and $75,700 providing deeper support. A daily close below $80,000 could expose the $77,000 to $78,000 zone, while a reclaim of $84,000, which has now rejected price several times, would be the first sign of stabilisation. Momentum remains soft, with the RSI near 48. Derivatives and on-chain signals are mixed: liquidations on 15 October were largely long-side, yet 20,338 wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC marks a record.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $369 million over the six sessions from 8 to 15 October, including $261.5 million on 14 October, the day of the CPI release, led by Fidelity's FBTC and BlackRock's IBIT. Flows were close to flat on 15 October at $5.1 million, leaving October's net flows at roughly -$535 million. Ether ETFs fared no better, shedding $129.5 million on 14 October and extending their outflow streak to at least 10 sessions, with about $783 million withdrawn since 29 September as of 12 October. The selling keeps institutional demand on the sidelines and leaves price action dependent on macro triggers such as inflation data, oil and Fed signals.

Ether has lost about 5.1% over the past week, falling from a close of $2,565 on 8 October to around $2,435 today, and has failed to reclaim the $2,600 level. After falling about 5.5% in 24 hours on the CPI release, ETH undercut its September low to print $2,315 on 15 October, and Binance recorded more than $106 million of ETH long liquidations in a single hour, its largest in six months, before price rebounded above $2,400. The structure remains weak, with the 50-day EMA near $2,493 now acting as overhead resistance. Immediate support sits at $2,400 and $2,315, with a daily close below $2,315 opening the way to $2,270 and then $2,140. Institutional demand is also soft, with spot Ether ETFs seeing a 10-session outflow streak. For a recovery, ETH first needs to reclaim $2,500 and then clear resistance at $2,578 to $2,600 (the neckline of a possible double-bottom); a sustained break above $2,800 would reopen the path toward $3,000, while a failure to hold $2,315 risks a deeper retracement.

Technical Outlook:

BITCOIN:

BTC after making the recent low of $75,025 on 15 September gave a relief rally of almost 16.4% and the price bounced up to $87,363. The bulls were not able to extend above $87,400 and the price corrected by almost 8.7% to the recent low of $79,806 on 15 October. On a broader time scale, BTC is trading sideways in a range from $79,800 to $87,400 and is now sitting in the lower half of that range after defending the $80,000 level, while still about 35% below its all-time high of around $126,000 set in early October 2025. Breakouts on either side of the range will further decide the trend for the asset.

ETH:

ETH after making the all time high of $4,956 witnessed a sharp fall and is still trading almost 51% below that peak. After a swing low of $2,360 on 15 September, the asset gave a relief rally of almost 18.9% up to $2,805, but the bulls could not hold the $2,800 resistance and the price corrected by around 17.5% to a low of $2,315 on 15 October, slightly undercutting the September low before recovering. ETH is trading sideways in a range from $2,315 to $2,800 and is now bouncing off the lower end of this range. A daily close below $2,315 would open the way to $2,140, while a breakout above $2,800 would be the first sign of a trend reversal. Breakouts on either side of the range will further decide the trend for the asset.

Market Updates:

September US CPI came in hotter than expected at 3.7% year on year (3.6% expected, August 3.4%), with core CPI at 2.6% versus 2.5% expected, and the US PPI rose 6.3% year on year against 5.3% expected. Bitcoin gave back its pre-release rally near $84,000, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remains a major challenge and gave no hints on the next rate decision.

Ether took the brunt of the sell-off, with about $292 million of ETH positions liquidated in 24 hours (92% longs) and Binance logging more than $106 million of ETH long liquidations in one hour, its largest in six months. Spot Ether ETFs recorded a $129.5 million outflow on 14 October as their outflow streak continued.

On the regulatory and index front, the US OCC expects to issue its final GENIUS Act implementation rules by the end of October, while MSCI has adopted new index exclusion rules that could put Strategy and Metaplanet at risk of removal from its indices.

Omaxe, one of India's leading real estate developers, has entered into an MOU with Carnation Hotels Private Limited, wholly owned subsidiary of Lemon Tree Hotels to operate 10 hotel projects across India, comprising 4,000 keys. This operating arrangement marks a significant step in the execution of Omaxe's INR 6,200 crore hospitality expansion, announced in June 2026, which envisages the development of 19 hotels across five states.

The 10 projects entail an estimated investment of approximately INR 4,000 crore and span Lucknow, Vrindavan, Amausi, Ghaziabad, Greater Noida, Amritsar, Kaushambi and Faridabad. The portfolio includes hospitality developments at transit hubs, pilgrimage destinations and commercial locations, reflecting Omaxe's approach of integrating hospitality with its wider real estate and urban development portfolio.

Edgistify, which runs fulfilment for 70 consumer brands, has added a 68,000 sq ft warehouse in IndoSpace's logistics park at Luhari, Haryana. It is the company's third high-grade facility in the Gurugram region, and new and existing customers are already shipping orders from it.

Edgistify timed the launch for the festive season, the busiest time of the year for consumer brands. Its two existing Gurugram sites are full, so Luhari gives brands one place to stock up early instead of spreading inventory across several partners when demand peaks. The company's operations are built to handle order spikes of up to 2.5 times normal volume.

AdGraam, an AI-powered Creative Intelligence platform and studio built for the performance era, has raised Rs 3 crore seed funding in a round led by serial entrepreneur Umair Mohammad, Co-founder of Nitro Commerce. The company plans to deploy the capital across team and capability expansion, sales and marketing, and international expansion as it works towards building a Made-in-India Creative AdTech platform with global applicability.

Umair Mohammad, Lead Investor and Co-founder, Nitro Commerce, said, "Creative is becoming an increasingly important lever in digital advertising, particularly as brands compete for attention across increasingly crowded platforms. AdGraam's approach goes beyond content generation to bring creative intelligence, production and performance into a connected workflow. The team has the opportunity to build a meaningful technology layer for how brands approach advertising creative at scale."

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Purvang Mashru, Lead Analyst, BitDelta India

Bitcoin rose 0.6% to about $82,078 and Ethereum gained 0.7% to $2,429 on 16 October. Eight of top ten cryptos my market cap advanced, led by Cardano's 1.0% rise. The more telling development was Bitcoin's recovery above $82,000 after slipping below $80,000.

All of top ten cryptos by marketcap finished in the upper 30% of their daily ranges, including BNB and Dogecoin despite their daily losses. Buyers recovered ground across the market, but price data alone cannot distinguish fresh demand from short covering.

International signals were mixed. US producer prices rose 1.3% in September and 6.3% annually, keeping inflation pressure firmly in view. Yet the US 10-year yield fell to 5.064% on 15 October and the dollar softened. Lower yields offered relief without resolving the inflation risk.

Institutional demand has not confirmed the recovery. Bitcoin and Ether funds lost a combined $390.9 million in the completed 14 October US session.

Bitcoin now faces resistance near $82,544, with support around $82,000 and $81,000. Holding above $82,000 and clearing resistance, alongside Ethereum above $2,463, would strengthen the setup. Losing $81,000 would bring $80,000 and the observed $79,689 low back into focus.

US industrial-production data at 6:45 PM IST on 16 October is the next test.

The company has announced its financial results for the quarter and half year ended September 30, 2026. Total income stood at Rs 361 crore in Q2 FY27, registering a 13.4% year-on-year growth from Rs 319 crore in Q2 FY26. Profit After Tax (PAT) rose by 30.9% to Rs 13.82 crore, compared with Rs 10.55 crore in the corresponding quarter last year.

For H1 FY27, total income increased by 13.4% to Rs 678 crore, while PAT grew by 25% to Rs 25.84 crore. The company also recorded a significant increase in export revenue, which rose 355% year-on-year to Rs 63.86 crore in Q2 FY27.

Additionally, MWL has incorporated its wholly owned subsidiary, MWL Europe BV, in Belgium to strengthen its European presence, expand customer outreach and explore new business opportunities in the region.

Bitcoin recovered modestly on Friday, trading around $82,000 after briefly slipping below $80,000 in the previous session, as investors continued to assess the impact of stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data. September CPI rose to 3.7%, while producer prices climbed 6.3% annually, reinforcing concerns over persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest-rate trajectory. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield eased toward 5.04%, providing some relief to risk assets, although broader market sentiment remains cautious. Institutional inflows have offered some support to Bitcoin despite recent volatility said CoinSwitch Markets Desk.

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Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder & CEO, Pi42

"Bitcoin is demonstrating an important degree of resilience. Despite US producer inflation surging to 6.3% year-on-year and expectations of a December rate hike rising, buyers stepped in when BTC briefly fell below $80,000, pushing it back above $82,000. This tells us the market is not simply reacting to macroeconomic pressure, it is actively testing how much selling demand can be absorbed before the next directional move.

The more significant signal is coming from on-chain data. On-chain data is offering a constructive signal, with the number of wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC reaching a record high. While wallet numbers alone do not confirm net buying, the trend points to sustained participation from larger holders and suggests that some investors continue to see opportunities despite the recent correction. At the same time, Bitcoin's open interest has declined more than 14% since its last move near $87,000, indicating that speculative positions have been substantially reduced. This combination of continued accumulation and lower derivatives exposure could create a healthier foundation for the next advance, provided demand persists.

The $81,000 to $82,000 zone is now critical. Holding this range while reclaiming higher resistance could restore bullish momentum, with implications for the wider crypto market. The key takeaway is that inflation may dictate short-term volatility, but sustained accumulation and price resilience will help determine Bitcoin's next major move." 

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin remains under pressure after hotter-than-expected US inflation revived concerns about further Federal Reserve tightening. Reuters reported that September CPI rose 3.7% year on year, while core inflation reached 2.6%. Markets have increased the implied probability of an October rate hike to around 45%, adding to uncertainty for risk assets. Bitcoin fell to $80,247 before trading around $80,743, according to LSEG data cited by Barron's. 

Institutional demand is also uneven. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $261.4 million in outflows on October 14, following $175.7 million of inflows a day earlier. This volatility reflects cautious positioning.

Our advice: Investors should avoid chasing rebounds during macro-driven volatility. Use staggered entries, keep position sizes measured and watch ETF flows and Fed signals before committing more capital.

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange 

Crypto markets came under renewed pressure after a much hotter-than-expected U.S. PPI print reinforced concerns around sticky inflation and a higher-for-longer rate environment. Bitcoin briefly tested the $80,000 region, while Ethereum and the broader altcoin market saw relatively steeper losses as leveraged long positions were flushed out.
However, the macro reaction later became more supportive. Despite the inflation surprise, the U.S. dollar retreated from an 18-month high and Treasury yields moved lower as aggressive Fed tightening expectations eased. That helped risk sentiment stabilise and triggered a relief recovery across BTC and ETH.
From a technical perspective, the bounce has not yet changed the broader short-term structure. Bitcoin remains below the key $82.2K-$83.1K resistance cluster, and a sustained move above $83K-$83.5K would be needed to strengthen the recovery case. On the downside, $81K and $80K remain crucial supports. Ethereum continues to underperform, with $2,480-$2,530 acting as the key recovery zone, while $2,400 and $2,320 remain important support levels.
The next major catalyst is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's commentary. A more hawkish tone could revive dollar strength and pressure crypto again, while a softer stance could allow the current relief bounce to extend.

Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex

Bitcoin has rebounded to around $82,000 after briefly breaking below $80,000, its weakest level in over three weeks. The sell-off followed US producer prices rising 6.3% year-on-year, above the expected 5.3%, adding to inflation concerns following the CPI data. Nearly $950 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, while spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $261 million in outflows. Easing Treasury yields, with the 10-year retreating to 5.1% from 5.36%, helped BTC recover. Meanwhile, wallets holding 10-10,000 BTC reached a record 20,338, signalling stronger whale participation. Markets now put the odds of a Fed hike above 50% ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's speech today. Bitcoin's support remains at $80,000, with immediate resistance standing at $83,000.

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Gold eased 0.4% to around $4,150/oz in Asian trade, giving back some gains after rising over 1% in the previous session as markets await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments for signals on the interest-rate outlook. Silver remained above $57/oz, drawing support from safe-haven demand amid weaker equities and falling bond yields. WTI crude slipped to $97.50 a barrel after briefly topping $98, as the IEA agreed to release additional emergency crude and diesel supplies. However, oil remains on track for a 6% weekly gain. The rupee strengthened 12 paise to Rs 95.05/$, marking its fifth consecutive gain, supported by RBI intervention and dollar-position unwinding.

The Thesis
Hormuz tanker losses have pushed Brent to $105.92 even as the rupee holds near 95 on RBI's new oil-dollar window - a setup that favors India's domestic-cyclical and dollar-export plays over globally-exposed tech, especially with the Nasdaq down 1.88% on a hot US inflation print. DII buying (Rs 3,319 crore) absorbed fresh FII selling (Rs 5,285 crore), keeping the Nifty 500 up 0.66% and VIX near 14.7.

Where We're Concentrated
We're barbelled across domestic telecom-infra capex insulated from the Nasdaq wobble, dollar-billed export services (VFX, home textiles) that gain as the rupee steadies near 95, domestic spirits demand riding DII liquidity, and shipping capacity positioned for the freight-rate spike out of the Hormuz disruption. A disorderly rupee slide past RBI's defenses, or Brent through $110, breaks this thesis.

Conviction Picks
Highest Conviction
Prime Focus Limited
Dollar-billed VFX export revenue gains as the rupee holds near 95, a level RBI's oil-dollar window is actively defending.
HFCL Ltd.
Domestic telecom-infra capex is insulated from the Nasdaq-led tech selloff dragging global IT sentiment lower.
Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd.
Hormuz tanker losses are pushing freight and war-risk premiums higher, a direct tailwind for shipping capacity.
Welspun Living Ltd.
Dollar-billed home-textile exports firm up as the rupee stabilizes near 95 instead of testing fresh lows.
Allied Blenders and Distillers Ltd.
Domestic spirits demand rides DII buying power, insulated from the FII outflows and crude-driven volatility.
One Thing to Watch
Hormuz vessel losses, oil flow collapse Two container ships have sunk in the strait and crude exports are down roughly 40% from pre-war levels; a further loss pushes Brent through $110 and forces RBI to lean harder on its oil-dollar window.

Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX

"US producer inflation rose 1.3%, while retail sales gained 0.8% and jobless claims remained low at 199,000, signaling firm demand but limiting scope for rapid Fed easing. India's exports surged 23%, improving regional confidence and supporting domestic crypto participation. The US 10-year yield fell to 5.086%, offering liquidity relief, while higher oil prices maintained inflation pressure. Strong growth and lower yields favor Bitcoin and Ethereum, although persistent inflation may keep broader crypto participation selective in the near term across markets.

Bitcoin trades near $82,108, consolidating between longer-term support and short-term resistance. The $81,800-$82,000 range remains important, followed by $81,200. A move through $82,500-$82,800 could improve momentum. Futures confirmation would require stronger volume and open interest without sharply rising funding today.

Ethereum trades near $2,442 and is showing early signs of stability. Immediate support lies around $2,420-$2,440, followed by $2,355. Resistance sits near $2,480-$2,500. Staying above support could aid recovery, while stronger activity above resistance would improve the broader market structure.

Global markets improved as Asian equities advanced broadly, led by the KOSPI's 3.08%, Sensex's 2.11% and Nikkei's 1.75% gains. US markets also finished higher, with the Dow up 1.08%, while the VIX fell 2.43%, indicating calmer sentiment. Gold gained 0.32%, showing continued demand for alternative assets, while oil declined 0.80%, easing inflation concerns. Stronger equities, lower volatility and reduced energy pressure may encourage wider participation across Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins during the current trading session.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $261.4 million in daily net outflows, reversing the previous session's inflow, while Ethereum ETFs lost $129.51 million. Fidelity's FBTC led Bitcoin withdrawals, and BlackRock's ETHA drove most Ethereum redemptions. 

Despite institutional selling, Bitcoin held near $82,108 and Ether gained slightly to around $2,442, showing that ETF activity does not determine prices alone. Spot demand, short-covering and derivatives positioning can absorb outflows, while profit-taking and macro pressure may similarly delay gains during strong inflow sessions too."

At the close on Thursday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,71,06,960 crore. 

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