Daniel Munday, Principal Analyst, VT Markets on 

Hotter US CPI revived Fed hike bets, then cautious Fed comments pulled them back. At the same time, AI financing worries hit US tech, with CoreWeave and Oracle sold off on debt fears. Asia took the hit, and the KOSPI closed down 7.57%, its seventh straight loss, with foreign investors heavy sellers.

Overnight, US yields and the dollar eased as a Bloomberg report suggested China holds more US debt than official data show, and as investors sought safety. That helps, and bounces are possible after such a fast fall, but chip heavy markets such as Korea, Taiwan and Japan stay exposed, so volatility is likely until AI and rate worries settle.

Key risks are the October 28 Fed meeting, more hot inflation data, oil and Middle East tensions, and whether AI spending can be funded.

EarlySalary Services Private Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Social Worth Technologies Limited ("SWTL") and the NBFC arm of Fibe, has received improved credit rating assessments from India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) and CRISIL Ratings. India Ratings has upgraded the rating on the company's non-convertible debentures to 'IND A'/Stable from 'IND A-Positive'. CRISIL Ratings has assigned a 'CRISIL A/Stable' rating to the company's long-term bank loan facilities of Rs. 700 crore and NCDs of Rs. 800 crore, while reaffirming its existing 'CRISIL A1' rating Rs. 100 crore on commercial paper. 

The rating actions reflect improvements in the group's business scale, profitability and asset quality, along with its capitalisation metrics. India Ratings has noted that asset quality improved with tighter underwriting and stronger collection efficiency. CRISIL Ratings has cited the group's track record of raising equity, technology-enabled operations and diversified resource profile as rating strengths.

Manish Aggarwal, Partner and leader - Financial Services and Infrastructure Transactions, Deloitte India

"The IDBI Bank disinvestment is one of the boldest and most significant structural reforms undertaken in India's banking and financial services sector. As one of the largest and most complex strategic disinvestments undertaken by the government, it marks a significant milestone in India's reform journey, advances the government's disinvestment objectives and reinforces the country's position as an attractive destination for long-term foreign investment. The deal is structured very well where in the foreign investor gets management control, brings in capital, expertise to grow the bank, and govt rides this upside through their residual stake. 

In fact, the entire thought process, groundwork and intensity of efforts around this deal that started few years back laid the foundation that led to the strong investment momentum witnessed from corridors such as Japan and the Middle East into the banking and financial services space. With global investors continuing to back India's growth potential with the largest FDI in the sector despite an uncertain geopolitical environment is a testimony of India's political stability, continued focus on reforms, and belief in highest growth rates of our economy.  It is also an important step in attracting long-term foreign capital into a sector that will play a critical role in supporting India's next phase of economic growth.

As banks and financial institutions continue to invest in technology, digital infrastructure and new capabilities, access to long-term capital will become increasingly important. Transactions of this nature can help accelerate that transformation, strengthen the financial services ecosystem and enhance the sector's ability to support the evolving needs of the new age economy."

Banaraswala, Ghat se Ghar Tak, known for its Banarsi cuisine, has raised $2 million in Seed funding from Prax Impex Private Limited. The money raised will help the brand enter new markets, innovate its menu and grow through franchises as the company looks to take the flavours and food culture of Banaras to the masses.

Banaraswala is a company established by Vibhanshu Mishra that offers an exquisite culinary tradition of Banaras to the people today living in the modern world. He has ensured that the company stays true to the original cooking tradition while effectively using culture-defining elements like the kulhads, pattal and clay.

The company currently operates three outlets across Delhi and is in the process of expanding its territory to cities like Banswara in Rajasthan, Sarangpur in Gujarat, and Farrukhabad & Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh in the months of October - November. The brand has also established a strong presence across leading food delivery platforms. 
 

Richa Sawhney,  Partner - Tax,  Grant Thornton Bharat 

"The latest data reflects a balanced revenue profile, with growth visible across both corporate taxes and securities transaction taxes. Although the sharp increase in refunds has impacted net collection growth, it is also indicative of more efficient refund processing by the tax administration, particularly in case of non-corporate taxpayers.  This suggests that collection efficiency is being accompanied by improved taxpayer services."

She added, "The latest direct tax numbers reflect healthy tax buoyancy, with broad-based growth across key revenue streams. Equally significant is the sharp increase in refunds, particularly for non-corporate taxpayers, which reflects the administration's focus on faster processing of taxpayer claims. This suggests that revenue growth is being achieved alongside improved taxpayer service, pointing to a tax ecosystem that is increasingly focused on both compliance and facilitation"

India GDP Growth: India released an updated series of annual and quarterly GDP estimates in 2026, shifting the base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23. Read full report here

Justin Khoo, Senior Market Analyst - APAC, VT Markets

Global markets remain focused on US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) often triggering sharper market reactions due to its earlier release, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index remains the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. Higher than expected CPI could push US Treasury yields and the dollar higher, putting pressure on gold, while softer inflation may support the precious metal. According to VT Markets technical analysis, gold has moved up from $4,080, with $4,280 as the next level to monitor and $4,055 as downside support. Crude oil is testing resistance at $94.50, with $96.70 the next level to watch, while silver's downside levels are $58.95 and $57.40. In US markets, the S&P 500 is consolidating after rising from 7,735, while the Nasdaq is testing 30,450, with 30,123 a key level to defend. The US Dollar Index has eased from 102.55, while currency movements will remain sensitive to inflation surprises and changing Fed rate expectations.

OnMobile Global Limited, a publicly listed company on NSE and BSE, has secured Rs 40 crore from BlackSoil Capital to scale its ONMO Smart Console, bringing console-grade cloud gaming to a wider audience in India.

The Reserve Bank of India's measures helped the currency rebound from a near record low but analysts are questioning how long the relief can last. Read full report here

The $5.6 billion deal will push asset-sale proceeds past the government's annual target for the first time in seven years. Read full report here

Gaurav Garg, Head - Research, Lemonn

Gold and silver are moving higher as the US dollar retreats from recent highs, offering support to precious metals. However, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest-rate outlook and persistent inflation concerns continue to create volatility, with investors monitoring upcoming US economic data for further policy signals. Crude oil has declined to $95.056/bbl as expectations of higher oil supplies from Russia and the Middle East offset concerns over attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and potential shipping disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the Indian rupee is trading around Rs 95.267 per dollar, supported by RBI measures to manage dollar demand. Nevertheless, fluctuations in crude prices, US Treasury yields and geopolitical developments remain important factors influencing India's import bill and inflation outlook.

Investors should remain cautious and keep their exposure under control, say experts. Read full report here

Falling Oil Prices: Crude oil prices declined sharply, easing concerns about India's import costs and inflation outlook. Lower energy prices are generally seen as positive for the economy and corporate earnings.

Geopolitical Concerns Ease: Investor sentiment improved as worries over potential supply disruptions in key oil-shipping routes moderated. The easing of immediate energy-market risks helped boost confidence across global markets.

Buying Across Sectors: The rally was broad-based, with gains seen in banking, financial services, information technology and automobile stocks. Strong participation across sectors indicates healthy market momentum rather than a narrow, stock-specific rise.

Improving Global Cues: Softer bond yields and a more stable macroeconomic environment encouraged investors to take on risk again. This supported flows into equities, including emerging markets such as India.

Purvang Mashru, Lead Analyst, BitDelta India

Bitcoin fell 2.1% to about $81,484 and Ethereum lost 3.6% to $2,412 on 15 October. BNB, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, Cardano, Avalanche and Chainlink also declined. TRX was the exception, gaining 0.9%, as the 14 October rebound gave way to renewed selling.

The key change was US inflation. September consumer prices rose 0.6% month on month and 3.7% year on year. Core inflation reached 2.6%. This makes an early easing in financial conditions harder to justify and keeps interest-rate risk relevant for crypto.

Bitcoin lost 2.8% from its price one minute before the 14 October release, while Ethereum fell 4.1%. All of top ten cryptos by market cap were lower over that window.

Selling persisted into the morning hours of October 15. Bitcoin and Ethereum finished in the bottom 7% of their daily ranges. Chainlink fell 4.5%, Cardano lost 4.2% and Avalanche declined 3.9%. Weak closes across several major cryptos leave the recovery unconfirmed.

The international backdrop also tightened: the Nasdaq fell 1.9% and the dollar gained 0.35% on 14 October. Completed 13 October US Bitcoin and Ether fund inflows of $200.5 million provide a counterweight.

Bitcoin support is near $81,295 and $81,000, with resistance at $82,000 and $83,000. Ethereum above $2,450 would ease pressure; losing $81,295 would weaken the setup. US producer-price data at 6:00 PM IST on 15 October is the next macro catalyst.

Ankita Pathak, Head - Global Investments, Ionic Asset

US CPI inflation exceeded market expectations, with energy accounting for 40% of the increase in headline year-on-year inflation. Monthly inflation has averaged 0.35% so far in 2026, substantially higher than 0.23% pace recorded over the same period last year. If sustained, this momentum could keep annual inflation well above 3.5%. With geopolitical tensions lingering and little visibility on a near-term resolution, elevated energy prices could increasingly spill over into food, rents and other components. While the Fed remains focused on price stability, weaker-than-expected labour market data complicates the policy outlook, leaving an October 2026 rate hike possible, but not certain. Markets are currently pricing in about 26% probability of a rate hike in October policy. The upcoming Fed decision and US midterm elections will be key market catalysts, shaping rate expectations and the broader macroeconomic outlook .

Stock Market News: Crude oil prices, global market cues, institutional investor flows and earnings season could influence sentiment around Diwali. Read full report here

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Gold and silver futures are facing sharp selling pressure in India, with silver witnessing a steeper correction. MCX December gold futures were quoted at Rs 1,45,850 per 10 grams, down 1.75% from the previous close of Rs 1,48,450. December silver futures stood at Rs 2,07,990 per kg, down 5.12% from the previous close of Rs 2,19,217. These early market quotes indicate heightened volatility across precious metals.

Gold has moved closer to the Rs 1.45 lakh level, which is an important area to monitor. A sustained fall below this zone could invite further selling. Gold needs to recover above Rs 1.48 lakh to improve its near-term outlook. Silver's decline is more pronounced. It has slipped towards Rs 2.08 lakh per kg, making the Rs 2.05-2.08 lakh zone important for near-term support. A recovery above Rs 2.19 lakh would be needed to signal a meaningful improvement.

The global interest-rate outlook remains a key driver. Stronger US inflation has reinforced concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep monetary policy restrictive for longer. A firm dollar and elevated Treasury yields tend to weigh on gold and silver because they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

For Indian investors, currency movements add another layer of volatility. Rupee weakness can cushion domestic bullion prices when international prices fall, but it may not fully offset a sharp global correction. The immediate bias remains cautious, particularly for silver. Investors should avoid treating a temporary bounce as a confirmed reversal. The next move will depend on the dollar, US yields and whether buying emerges around the current support zones.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin is trading near $81,700 as stronger US inflation data has renewed concerns about interest rates staying higher for longer. September inflation rose to 3.7% annually, increasing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's next move. Institutional demand also remains fragile. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $150.5 million in outflows on October 14, reversing the previous day's $175.7 million inflow. These mixed flows are adding to short-term volatility.

Large-cap altcoins are also under pressure. Ethereum is down 3.14% over 24 hours, XRP has fallen 2.55%, Solana is lower by 2.49% and BNB has declined 1.59%. TRON is bucking the trend, rising 1.56%. Bitcoin's 81,300-81,500 support zone is important, with $80,000 the next level to watch.

Our advice: Investors should avoid reacting to every market swing. Staggered entries, disciplined position sizing and monitoring inflation data and ETF flows can help manage risk. Wait for clearer momentum before taking larger positions.

Vaishali Patel, Senior Manager - Research- Technical Department at Jainam

Nifty closed at 22,622.70 on 14 October, declining 0.44% as selling pressure in financial and automobile stocks offset gains in IT shares. The broader technical structure remains weak despite signs of easing bearish momentum. US markets ended lower on Wednesday, marking another weak session for Wall Street.
Asian markets are trading sharply lower, Stronger-than-expected US inflation has raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer, adding pressure on global equity markets. Crude oil contract closed around 9,116 (1.82%), to remain volatile in line with international prices. GIFT Nifty is trading lower around 22,586, down about 36 points in early trade, indicating a potentially flat to negative opening for Indian equities.
Technically, the index has formed a small bearish candle with upper and lower shadows, indicating indecision and a lack of clear directional conviction. Immediate support is placed at 22,500-22,400, followed by the crucial 22,300-22,200 zone. A decisive break below 22,200 could extend the decline towards 22,000.  On the upside, 22,800-22,850 is the immediate resistance zone. A sustained breakout above 22,850 could open the way towards 23,100-23,300. Overall Nifty remains cautious to bearish, with recovery attempts likely to face resistance near 22,800-22,850. Sustaining above this zone would improve the short-term outlook, while a breakdown below 22,400 would increase downside risks.
Disclaimer: Investments in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing. This is for educational information purposes only.  For more details click on https://www.jainam.in/disclaimer/

Daily Quote from Mudrex
Bitcoin has fallen 2% to around $81,500 after September inflation came in hotter than expected, with headline CPI at 3.7% against the 3.6% forecast and core inflation at 2.6%. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.33%, while the probability of an October 28 Fed hike jumped to 54% from 22% a day earlier, adding pressure to risk assets. On the positive side, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $175.6 million, their strongest inflow since October 2, despite weak retail sentiment. Markets will watch Warsh's Friday remarks for further signals ahead of the Fed meeting. BTC's support has moved down to $80,000, while resistance stands at $85,000 said Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex.

Daily Quote from CoinSwitch
BTC edged lower following the release of U.S. September inflation data, with annual CPI rising to 3.7% from 3.4% in August. Core inflation also came in above expectations, prompting markets to reassess the Federal Reserve's interest-rate outlook. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher as expectations of a potential rate hike strengthened, keeping investors focused on upcoming macroeconomic developments. BTC's near-term direction will likely depend on how inflation trends evolve and the Fed's policy signals in the coming weeks said CoinSwitch Markets Desk

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange 

Crypto markets remain firmly risk-off, with the latest decline extending the post-CPI weakness and developing into a significant leveraged-long flush. 

Bitcoin briefly fell toward the $80,000 region, while Ethereum dropped toward $2,320 and continued to underperform. The weakness is broad-based, with ETH, SOL and XRP falling around 5-6% and several smaller altcoins recording double-digit declines.

The macro backdrop remains challenging following hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation, which reinforced concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain restrictive policy for longer. However, leverage has significantly amplified the latest leg lower. According to CoinGlass, around $944 million in positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours. Around $487 million was liquidated in the latest one-hour window alone, highlighting the intensity of the forced deleveraging.

Volatility has also risen sharply alongside the sell-off. Bitcoin volatility jumped around 7% toward 39, indicating that options markets are pricing greater near-term uncertainty and larger expected price swings.

Technically, $80,000-$80,700 is the critical support region for Bitcoin. A sustained break below $80,000 could expose $78,000-$79,500, while a recovery above $82,000-$83,200 would be needed to improve the short-term structure. Ethereum remains comparatively weaker, with $2,300-$2,320 emerging as the immediate support zone.

The Thesis
Global equities are unwinding the AI financing trade - a hot US inflation print sent the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to their sharpest drop since July, pointing to a weak Nifty 500 open. We lean into names insulated from that reset: insurance, gas infrastructure, consumption and industrial materials, where local demand sets the pace.

Where We're Concentrated
The book concentrates in insurance and gas-utility exposure tracking domestic premium and energy demand, alongside a consumption name resilient to the global risk-off and a steel-capex-linked materials play. DIIs bought Rs 2,670 crore against Rs 1,857 crore of FII selling today, cushioning the tape. A sustained Brent move above $108 on fresh Hormuz disruption, or a deeper tech rout that flips DII flows negative, breaks the thesis.

Conviction Picks
Highest Conviction
Allied Blenders and Distillers
Consumer discretionary demand holds up even as global tech multiples reset, a steadier growth path than offshore-linked plays.
SBI Life Insurance
Insurance premium growth stays insulated from today's AI-driven global equity rout, a defensive anchor as Nifty 500 opens weak.
GAIL (India)
Gas-utility margins track domestic demand, not Nasdaq multiples, a hedge as Brent holds near $106 on Hormuz supply risk.
Prime Focus
Media and VFX services demand is domestically billed, insulated from the financing-cost repricing hitting global AI-linked stocks.
Graphite India
Steel-sector capex underpins graphite-electrode demand, a domestic industrial theme untouched by the offshore tech sell-off.
One Thing to Watch
GIFT Nifty points to a weak open A hot US CPI print has pushed Wall Street to its sharpest drop since July, hitting Kospi and Nikkei overnight - if that repricing spreads past AI-linked names into today's picks, the defensive framing breaks.

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Gold slipped below $4,100/oz to its lowest since early August after US inflation came in at 3.7%, above the 3.6% forecast, reinforcing expectations of a December Fed rate hike. Silver also weakened, falling below $58/oz to a 10-week low. WTI eased toward $94/barrel after five consecutive sessions of gains, but an unexpected 11-million-barrel draw in US crude inventories and fresh attacks in the Middle East continue to raise supply concerns. The rupee extended its gains for a third session, closing near Rs 95.16/$ as RBI measures curbed dollar demand.

Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder & CEO, Pi42

"The latest sell-off in Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies highlights how strongly inflation data continues to influence market direction. September's US CPI rose to 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the 3.6% forecast and strengthening concerns around the Federal Reserve's rate outlook. Bitcoin fell from $83,000 to the low $81,000s, while Ethereum slipped below $2,400. More than $450 million in crypto positions were liquidated within 24 hours, with nearly $400 million coming from bullish bets, intensifying the downward pressure.

However, the derivatives data offers another important signal. Bitcoin's open interest rose 1.41% even as prices declined, suggesting fresh positions are entering the market, including potential short exposure. This indicates that traders are positioning for the next move rather than simply exiting the market. With Bitcoin trading around the $82,000 level, which has acted as a key support and resistance zone for nearly 50 days, a decisive break in either direction could shape near-term sentiment.

For traders, the priority is to watch how Bitcoin responds around $82,000 and avoid excessive leverage during sharp price swings. A sustained recovery needs stronger price confirmation, while a breakdown could extend selling pressure."

Hemang Gor, Senior Research Analyst - Derivatives and Technical Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 declined 99 points, or 0.44%, to 22,623 on Wednesday after an early intraday rally dissolved into a late-afternoon retreat; IT and FMCG gains only partly offset weakness in pharma and autos. Overnight, a hotter-than-expected US core inflation print revived Fed rate-hike fears and deepened the chipmaker rout, where the Dow slipped 0.1%, the S&P 500 shed 1.1%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 1.9%.

Asian equities are facing a brutal morning start. The Nikkei has fallen 4.5% to 64,700 and Kospi plummeted 7% to 5,576, triggering a sidecar curb in Seoul; the Hang Seng and Shanghai are off 0.1% and 0.9%. Brent holds near $105. GIFT Nifty at 22,648 is explicitly telegraphing a lower, pressure-filled opening for our market.

Structurally, the immediate bias remains vulnerable, with the undertone staying decidedly subdued. On the downside, 22,500 serves as the vital psychological support, while any relief rallies will face formidable resistance near 22,800.

Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX

"Bitcoin and Ethereum remained steady despite a difficult session across global markets. Bitcoin traded near $81,599, while Ether held around $2,415 as fresh institutional inflows helped absorb part of the pressure created by higher inflation, rising Treasury yields and weaker equities.

Bitcoin is consolidating between $81,200 and $82,250, with neutral RSI indicating neither buyers nor sellers have established clear control. The $81,200-$81,500 region remains important for stability, while a move through $81,850-$82,250 could improve short-term momentum. Below the current range, $80,300 provides the next reference level. BTC Futures traders can look for expanding volume and open interest alongside balanced funding to assess whether any recovery has broader participation.

Ethereum's short-term momentum remains under pressure, but its longer-term structure has not weakened significantly. The $2,400-$2,410 region is currently providing support, with $2,350 available below. A recovery above $2,425 would improve the setup, although $2,490-$2,505 remains the stronger barrier around the psychological $2,500 level.

PYTH stood out with a 2.16% gain to $0.0869. The token remains above its major daily moving averages, while RSI near 67 reflects firm but controlled momentum. The immediate trading range sits between support at $0.084-$0.085 and resistance at $0.088-$0.090.

Macro conditions remained challenging. India's wholesale inflation climbed to 11.39%, potentially keeping the RBI cautious, while US inflation reached 3.7% and the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5.33%. The Nasdaq fell 1.88%, the Nikkei declined 4.38% and the KOSPI dropped 7.29%. Gold gained 1.30%, reflecting defensive positioning, while oil's 1.14% decline provided some relief from inflation concerns.

Institutional demand improved despite the wider caution. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $175.62 million, while Ethereum ETFs recorded $24.84 million in inflows, ending a ten-session withdrawal streak. The limited price reaction indicates that ETF demand was offset by macro pressure, derivatives liquidations and profit-taking. Even so, both assets holding key levels during a broad market sell-off points to continued underlying spot demand."

Avoiding social media is not practical. The more useful approach is to understand what information is publicly visible, and how it can be misused. Read full report here

At the close on Wednesday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,70,50,977 crore.